961
FXUS65 KLKN 052102
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
202 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Generally cool with periods of precipitation expected
for the first half of the week across northern Nevada. Afternoon
breezes also in place across the region. Warming trend and fairer
weather the latter half of the week. Potential for showers and
thunderstorms next weekend, ultimately depending on how the upper
pattern evolves.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night

Upper low continues to progress east out of the forecast area
tonight with showers and thunderstorms gradually dissipating under
northwest flow. Although a few snow showers are expected to
linger into Monday morning for portions of Elko County. The
winter weather advisory for the Ruby Mtns/E Humboldt Range and
Northern Elko County higher than 6500 feet has subsequently been
extended thru 8AM Monday. Additional snow totals of 2-4 inches are
expected around 6500 feet with the high elevations expected to
receive an additional 6 to 10 inches. Winds ease further overnight
becoming light to breezy. Overnight low temperatures reside in
the low 20s to low 30s.

A brief break in showers is expected Monday morning under rising
heights as what could be argued as a weak transient ridge moves
across the forecast area. Next upper wave brings another cold
front into the region from the northwest beginning Monday
afternoon. Another round of valley rain and snow showers and
mountain snow is expected for northern Nevada, persisting thru
the night, with central Nevada remaining mostly dry. This will be
a weaker frontal passage and impacts will remain sub advisory
criteria. Gusty winds again in place Monday with gusts 20 to 30
mph. Daytime high temperatures reside in the low 50s to low 60s
with overnight lows in the low 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday

Some lingering showers and breezy conditions will persist for
much of the day Tuesday as a broad long-wave trough encompasses
over much of the western U.S. and northern plains. A 15-20% chance
isolated thunderstorms is possible across northern Elko county in
the afternoon. Quiet conditions expected as ridge of high
pressure influences the region mid to late next week. Meanwhile, a
closed low over Montana begins to retrograde and may bring
isolated thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada by next
weekend. Highs early next week will start out in the 50s and 60s
before climbing into the 70s by late next week. Lows will range
from the 20s and 30s. Winds will be breezy to locally windy each
afternoon with gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the windier locales.

&&

.AVIATION...A storm system will move across northern
and central NV through Monday. Light to moderate snow showers
will continue today with CIGs and VIS lowering to MVFR/IFR for
most TAF sites. KTPH looks to remain dry. Weak instability sets up
across much of the region this afternoon, with a 15-20% chance of
thunderstorms at KBAM and KEKO through the early evening hours.
Shower activity expected to taper off this evening and overnight.

VCSH may be present Monday morning and afternoon, but will remain
generally north of the I-80 corridor. Otherwise, VFR conditions
expected with CIGs at 5KFT and above. Breezy winds from the W-NW
expected to affect all TAF sites, increasing to 10-15 knots with
gusts as high as 20-25 knots.

KWMC remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication issue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows continue across several streams, creeks,
and rivers throughout northern and central Nevada due to seasonal
snow melt. Modest increases have been noted in faster responding
creeks and streams due to recent rainfall and snowfall. Increased
flows may additionally be noted on other streams and rivers over
the next several days. However, cool temperatures thru the first
half of the week will continue to help mitigate high elevation
snow melt and subsequent runoff.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain resides in action stage and
is forecast remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Humboldt River at Comus resides in minor flood stage and is
forecast to remain in minor flood stage for the next few days
while gradually decreasing. The river is forecast to fall into
action stage mid week.

Wildhorse Dam currently resides in action stage and is forecast
to remain in action stage for the next several days.

The Owyhee River near Mountain City resides near action stage.
The river is forecast to continue to range in and out of action
stage for the next several days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday ABOVE 6500 FEET in
Northern Elko County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday Ruby Mountains and
East Humboldt Range.

&&

$$

92/90/90