Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO
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486 FXUS63 KLSX 092021 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 321 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers are possible across portions of the area tonight. Thunderstorms return the first half of next week. Strong to severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated. - Temperatures will be cooler than normal Friday, but seasonable the rest of the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Upper trof continues to swing SE into the region this afternoon. As it does, the clouds and showers associated with the trof will also continue to advect into the region. Better coverage of precip shud remain along northeastern portions of the CWA as the vort max moves SE. Going forecast may have too few clouds for Friday. Ample boundary layer moisture shud allow stratus overnight to develop into CU field under the May sun. With sfc ridge building into the region and continued CAA, expect temps on Fri to remain below seasonal avg. Tilly && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A fast moving trof shud brush the area on Sat leaving NW flow over the region. Temps shud return this weekend with ample solar insolation. This trend continues thru the end of the forecast period. Upper low currently over the Rockies ejects into the Plains early next week. Model solns continue to vary next week with differences in phasing of upper level pattern. Nevertheless, pattern shud support more rain compared to dry time. Tilly && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Upper level trof over IA continues to slowly move southeast. Expect CU field to continue to develop ahead of the trof this afternoon. However, area of bkn clouds shud remain colocated with the trof. Question becomes focused on area of showers currently north of the region. Guidance suggests this area of SHRA will move just east of any terminals. However, given current trends, that soln seems less likely. Have kept mention of VCSH in KUIN TAF and will monitor for updates. Otherwise, guidance suggests stratus will overspread the area tonight and linger into mid Friday morning hours. Tilly && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX