523
FXUS64 KLZK 080507 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1207 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Main concern for this forecast period, is severe thunderstorm/heavy
rain potential for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

19z subjective surface analysis reveals a weak nearly stationary
boundary along the I-40 corridor. this feature will move northward
overnight. A few convective cells are possible during the overnight
hours, as an increasing low level jet supporting a warm air
advection pattern acts to force a corresponding convective response.

A cold front will approach the state on Wednesday. and is expected
to force convection, some some severe. Convective inhibition will be
weak at the start of the day, and may allow for some activity early
in the day.

The strongest cells will develop and progress eastward during the
mid afternoon and early evening period.  Several CAM runs continue
to indicate the upscale formation of a QLCS during the late
afternoon hours. All possible severe phenomena will be possible with
the strongest storms.  A strong signal for large hail is indicated
by a number of forecast parameters.

Widely scattered activity is expected on Thursday, across mainly
southern sections, supported by the exiting frontal boundary.  The
intensity of this activity will be much weaker.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Long term starts with a cold front to the south of the state which
will keep rain chances in the forecast...mainly across the southern
portions of the state. By Friday morning, winds aloft will become
more northwesterly and finally push the front away from the state
which will allow surface High pressure to build into the region.
This will lead to a prolonged stretch of dry weather through much of
the weekend. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80`s with
lows in the 50`s and 60`s.

Rain chances will return to the forecast towards the end of Mother`s
Day as High pressure departs to the east and a storm system
approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Expect primarily VFR conditions overnight for sites that will
remain dry. However...central sections will see convection
continuing to develop for the early morning hrs...with MVFR or
lower conditions expected. Expect this activity to move out of
these areas by after sunrise...with mainly dry conditions expected
into the afternoon hrs. More convection will develop by mid/late
afternoon across WRN/NWRN sections...dropping SE into the evening
hrs Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  82  55  73 /  80  10  10   0
Camden AR         67  86  58  78 /  60  20  30   0
Harrison AR       54  76  51  70 /  70  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    63  84  57  76 /  80  20  20   0
Little Rock   AR  67  84  59  76 /  70  10  10   0
Monticello AR     69  87  62  77 /  50  20  30   0
Mount Ida AR      62  84  56  76 /  80  20  10   0
Mountain Home AR  55  78  52  72 /  60   0   0   0
Newport AR        63  82  56  72 /  80  10  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  84  60  74 /  60  10  20   0
Russellville AR   60  84  55  76 /  70  10  10   0
Searcy AR         63  83  56  73 /  90  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      67  83  60  72 /  70  10  20   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....65
AVIATION...62