Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 230542
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Breezy northwesterly winds will continue to diminish this
afternoon, with winds gradually veering to the east through this
evening in the wake of the cold front associated with yesterday`s
short wave. Despite the post-frontal environment, lows tonight
will remain close to normal, if not a degree or two above, in the
40s and lower 50s for much of the area. Saturday morning, winds
will become breezy out of the southeast as return flow commences,
while flow aloft transitions to quasi-zonal as the mid-level ridge
shifts eastward, and the next trough to impact our weather takes
shape off the West Coast. Given the absence of downslope warming
and the increase in moisture and clouds due to the southeasterly
flow, temperatures Saturday trend a few degrees cooler than today,
topping out fairly close to normal for late March in the lower to
middle 70s for many, and 80s through the Rio Grande Valley and
portions of the Pecos Valley.
The aforementioned trough to the west translates quickly eastward
across the Great Basin through Saturday night, resulting in a
shift to southwesterly flow aloft as the trough`s attendant jet
noses closer to the region. Ahead of this feature, a lee trough
just to the east of the Rockies Saturday night will produce a
strong surface pressure gradient across West Texas, with breezy to
windy conditions possible, especially across portions of the
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Stockton Plateau where a potent
low-level jet develops. These southerly winds are progged to
persist through daybreak Sunday, with a medium-high probability
(40%-70%) of reaching Advisory criteria (>30 mph sustained).
Given the uptick in moisture and mostly cloudy skies Saturday
night, lows will be well above normal, only dropping into the 50s
for most by early Sunday morning. Saturday night`s winds, however,
will be a precursor to the high wind event expected Sunday, which
is highlighted in the Long Term Discussion below.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
A dynamic start to the long term as Sunday sees a short wave
trough push across the region with an associated 500mb jet
orientated southwest to northeast across the CWA. This will
translate to winds ramping up quickly through Sunday morning and
the afternoon across SE NM and a large portion of West Texas. Have
left the High Wind Watch as is for this forecast package, but
will note that guidance has nudged sustained winds and wind gusts
a knot or two higher than before. If this trend holds, then
extension of the watch further east across the Permian Basin and
Trans Pecos may be warranted. Just how high wind gusts reach
depend on a combination of cloud cover and the passage of a
Pacific Front during the afternoon on Sunday. Blowing dust will
develop with the winds and will lead to visibility reductions.
Much drier air will be ushered across the region and any lingering
low level moisture will be shoved to the east.
Winds decrease Sunday evening and into Monday morning as the first
short wave exits to the east. A second wave within the main upper
low digs to the south over northern Mexico bringing the bulk of
windy conditions to areas south of the I-10 corridor. It will
still be breezy north of I-10, but not to the extent that will be
seen Sunday afternoon. Precipitation chances stay low through the
coming week as dry air holds court. Cannot rule out weak, high
based showers or virga over the higher terrain, but even that
looks to be hard to come by.
The main upper low continues to churn across the central CONUS
Tuesday and Wednesday and sends a third wave over the area, but
winds look to stay subdued compared to Sunday and Monday. Rain
chances remain slim. Temperatures dip back below normal in the 60s
for Monday and Tuesday before reaching right back into the 70s for
the middle of the week. Lows settle into the upper 30s to low 40s
before also rebounding by midweek.
-Stickney
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
VFR will prevail through the period. Easterly winds will veer
through the day and increase with gusts approaching 30 kts at most
terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Fire weather conditions worsen through the weekend with a drying
trend resulting in poor recoveries across SE NM, the Davis Mountains
and into the western Permian Basin. Despite recent rainfall and some
green up, finer fuels will quickly dry out Saturday and Sunday.
Excellent recoveries remain across the Lower Trans Pecos and into
the eastern Permian Basin Saturday night as southeasterly return
flow holds low level moisture over the area. A short wave trough
pushes over SE NM and West Texas on Sunday with an associated 500mb
jet bringing strong winds for much of the region. In spite of
marginal ERCs, overall weather conditions will compensate for fuels
yielding increased IA potential and favorable conditions for fire
growth and spread. A Fire Weather Watch is expected to be issued in
the next 24 hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 54 78 47 69 / 0 0 0 10
Carlsbad 54 70 43 63 / 0 0 0 10
Dryden 52 85 49 72 / 0 0 10 0
Fort Stockton 56 79 47 67 / 0 0 0 10
Guadalupe Pass 50 60 38 52 / 0 0 0 10
Hobbs 50 69 39 63 / 0 0 0 10
Marfa 46 71 35 58 / 0 0 0 20
Midland Intl Airport 54 76 46 66 / 0 0 0 10
Odessa 54 75 46 66 / 0 0 0 10
Wink 53 76 44 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
Andrews-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains
Foothills-Eastern Culberson County-Gaines-Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Loving-Marfa Plateau-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and
Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
NM...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains
of Eddy County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...29