084
FXUS64 KMEG 031132
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
632 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A series of upper-level disturbances will move across the Lower
Mississippi Valley over the next 7 days. This will result in the
potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures
will average near normal to slightly above normal with highs in
the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends early this morning show
showers and thunderstorms occurring near the Tennessee River. This
activity is associated with a shortwave trough beginning to lift
away from the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a couple of MCS`s are
producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of Northeast
Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. A mild and humid airmass is in place
across the area with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the 60s.

Short-term models including CAMs indicate nocturnal convection should
continue to diminish over the area this morning. Another weak
shortwave trough combined with leftover convective boundaries
and diurnal instability may be sufficient to produce additional showers
and thunderstorms during peak afternoon heating, especially east
of the Mississippi River. HREF Grand Ensemble spread indicates
surface-based CAPE values ranging generally between 1000-1800
J/kg while 0-6 km shear is expected to remain relatively weak
around 20 kts. A couple of strong thunderstorms containing gusty
winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall may be possible
this afternoon.

Subtle shortwaves within weak southwest flow aloft combined with
an unstable airmass will produce additional showers and
thunderstorms across the Mid-South into the upcoming weekend. A
small area of 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 25-30 kts combined
with sufficient instability may result the development of a few
strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as a cold front
approaches northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.
Confidence in the overall severe threat remains low for Saturday
due to a lack of model consensus this morning.

Long-term models indicate an active and unsettled pattern will
continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley next week as the area
continues to remain within broad southwest flow aloft. Increasing
shear combined with a warm and unstable airmass suggest a potential
for organized strong to severe thunderstorms may exist towards
the middle of next week. This potential threat will continue to
be monitored in subsequent model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will likely be common across the
terminals through the at least 18z. Some IFR ceilings may mix at
times for a few hours this morning at MEM/MKL/JBR. Confidence is
low in how convection will redevelop later today so have included
VCTS remarks for now but may need to adjust forecast once trends
become more clear. Low clouds may be more prevalent towards TUP
tonight after 06z and have included MVFR ceilings for now.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...TAB