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000
FXUS62 KMLB 160059
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
859 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain
extended across Florida, with light E/SE winds tonight. Hi-res
guidance continues to hint at the potential for some patchy fog
development near to west of I-95, but MOS guidance keeps it out.
This may be due to a slight increase in low level winds toward
daybreak off the surface that may provide enough mixing to limit
fog formation. Still, will keep patchy fog mentioned, mainly
across the interior for late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
We have also started to see a slight increase in wildfire
activity in some spots today, so settling of smoke near any
lingering or smoldering brush fires will also be a concern due to
lighter surface winds. Dry conditions will prevail, with skies
clear to mostly clear tonight. Lows will be near to slightly
cooler than normal, ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 859 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mostly VFR tonight into tomorrow. There may be some patchy fog
that develops late tonight through early Tuesday morning, mainly
across the interior between 9-13Z. However, there is not a lot of
agreement in the guidance for this to occur, and have therefore
kept it out of the TAFs for now. If any fog does develop tempo
IFR/MVFR visibilities will be possible. Light winds tonight will
increase out of the east up to 10-14 knots tomorrow, with higher
gusts along the coast. Skies will be clear to mostly clear
tonight, with some increasing scattered to broken cirrus at or
above 25kft into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 859 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Tonight...Favorable boating conditions over the coastal waters,
with E/SE winds around 5-10 knots. Seas 2-3 feet.

Previous Discussion...

Tonight-Tuesday...Generally favorable boating conditions persist,
with dry conditions, thanks to continuing high pressure over the
local Atlantic waters. East to southeast flow through the period
around 10-15kts. Seas 2-3ft.

Tuesday Night-Friday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Favorable
boating conditions with the Atlc ridge axis lifting north to about
30N lat Tue, then shifting back southward over the local Atlc waters
Wed and reaching south FL Thu-Fri. Winds becoming SE 10-15 knots lat
Tue-Wed then S-SW 10 knots Thu-Fri, but turning onshore (SE) near
the coast in an aftn sea breeze both days. Seas 3 ft Tue, building 4
ft well offshore Tue night-Wed night. Seas subside back 2-3 feet Thu-
Fri as offshore flow develops. No rain/storms forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Tonight-Tuesday...High pressure prevails over the local area, as
the ridge axis remains stretched from the western Atlantic towards
the Florida peninsula. Dry conditions persist, under clear to
mostly clear skies. Temperatures this afternoon fall into the mid
to upper 50s west of I-95 overnight. Meanwhile, coastal areas
remain in the lower 60s, due to light onshore wind. Some patchy
fog will be possible over the interior late tonight into early
Tuesday morning, mainly for Osceola County northward. Easterly
winds will increase once again late Tuesday morning into the
afternoon, as the sea breeze develops, becoming 10-15mph. The
warming trend will continue, as highs reach the upper 80s inland
and the lower to mid-80s elsewhere.

Tuesday Night-Sunday (Modified Previous Discussion)...Mid-level
ridge builds across the GoMex and FL peninsula into Wed before being
flattened by southern stream shortwave energy with zonal flow
forecast to persist thereafter. In the low levels, the Atlc ridge
axis lifts north near 30N Wed, then slips southward, reaching south
FL Thu where it will remain into the weekend. Some mid level energy
will cross the area Fri in the fast zonal flow aloft, but dearth of
low level moisture argues against introducing any rain chances,
which is backed by 12Z QPF guidance which remains nil till Sun. The
low level ridge axis holds firm across south FL preventing any
frontal passages and will promote a south to southwest flow turning
onshore near the coast each aftn. Across the interior, max temps
will warm into the upper 80s/near 90 Wed, and low 90s Thu-Sun with a
few mid 90s possible. Daily afternoon sea breezes will keep coastal
communities a little cooler in the low to mid 80s Wed warming to the
mid to upper 80s Fri-Sun due to a more delayed sea breeze onset.
Have kept the forecast dry thru Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control, with a dry
airmass in place and warming temperatures. Minimum RH values
around 30-35 percent on Tuesday over the interior, with higher
min RH values near the coast. Onshore winds 10-12mph during the
afternoon, especially along the coast behind the sea breeze.
Dispersion values will be very good to excellent. No appreciable
rain is forecast, further drying fuels.

Wednesday-Sunday...Atlantic high pressure extending across Florida
will continue dry conditions but winds generally remain 10 mph or
less. Ridge axis of the high lifts into North Florida through
Wednesday, then settles back south across South Florida Thursday
into the weekend. Min RHs 30-40 pct across the interior Wed expand
to most areas west of I-95 Thursday through Sunday. Along the
coastal corridor from I-95 east, min RHs 40-55 pct. Easterly winds
at 10 mph Wednesday shift to the south Thursday, which back to the
southeast and could pick up to 10-15 mph along the coast with the
sea breeze in the afternoon with the sea breeze, becoming light and
variable overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  60  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  61  81  67  82 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  57  82  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  60  87  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  86  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  86  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  55  82  64  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
LONG TERM...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich