Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
272 FXUS62 KMLB 040047 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 847 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... (Tonight) Issued at 847 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Key Messages: -Pleasant overnight expected. -Isolated showers and storms through this weekend. -Early season heat wave potential increasing, with a moderate HeatRisk by the middle of next week as highs reach well into the 90s. We have had just enough moisture to spark a few showers this afternoon over the interior and Treasure Coast, but certainly not enough energy for lightning. This evening`s sounding from the Cape (XMR 03/23Z) indicates what moisture we do have is in the lowest 200 mb with very dry air (<10% RH) residing from H6 to H4. A subsidence inversion resides right around 650 hPa. So, despite a bit of CAPE, the mid-level environment remains rather hostile to sustained convection. Most areas should remain dry overnight, with only around a 10% chance for a shower pushing onto the Treasure Coast. Lows in the mid/upper 60s can be anticipated. The inherited digital forecast initialized very close to observations, so very minimal changes were required with this evening`s update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 847 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR-dominant conditions with a few MVFR CIGs (20-40% chance) along our coastal terminals from MLB southward through tonight. On Saturday, sea breeze driven showers are forecast to develop from near/west of MCO to FPR/SUA. Southernmost activity near Treasure Coast terminals are expected in late morning/early afternoon before moving toward the Greater Orlando/Lake County areas after 18Z. Confidence is low in coverage and placement; withheld VCSH for FPR/SUA for this reason but will continue with this mention at Greater Orlando terminals Sat PM. Winds remain E/SE at generally 5-15 KT. && .MARINE... Issued at 847 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Through Saturday... High pressure will continue to dominate the local area through the period. Onshore flow will persist; winds will decrease to 5-10 KT overnight before increasing to 10-15 KT with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Seas 2-3 FT. Isolated showers and storms will be possible Saturday. Sunday-Wednesday...(Previous Disc.) Favorable boating conditions are forecast as high pressure remains in control. Southeast winds around 10-15 kts shift southward Tuesday night. An east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop each afternoon, backing winds eastward near the coast. Seas of 2-3 ft persist through the period. Isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, drying into mid week. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Saturday-Thursday) Issued at 337 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Saturday... The high pressure ridge will continue to dominate the region, with onshore flow persisting. Much like the last several days, the east coast sea breeze will once again form in the afternoon and push inland. Winds will increase to 10-12 mph behind the sea breeze, with gusts up to 20 mph possible. The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur in the western interior once again. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms will be possible in the afternoon, with the highest PoPs (30 percent) occurring across the western interior. The main threats with any storms will be lightning strikes, gusty winds, and brief downpours. Otherwise, expect dry conditions. Temperatures will be warm once again, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s along the coast, and upper 80s to low 90s across the interior. Sunday-Monday...High pressure along the Atlantic seaboard is pushed offshore as a surface boundary moves across the eastern CONUS. Locally, light southeast winds back east each afternoon with the development of the east coast sea breeze, and a sea breeze collision is favored on the western side of the peninsula. Model sounding profiles suggest enough moisture between 850-700 mb to support isolated showers as the sea breeze boundary moves inland, becoming scattered in vicinity of the collision late in the afternoon. Modest moisture will support PoPs between 20-40 percent Sunday. Uncertainty exists in precip coverage on Monday due to model disagreements in available moisture, and the current forecast calls for 15-30 percent PoP. Dry air above 700mb will limit updraft growth and storm intensity. Occasional lightning strikes will be possible along the sea breeze collision late each afternoon. Above normal temperatures are forecast with highs ranging the mid 80s along the coast and upper 80s/ low 90s across the interior. Low temperatures widely range the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday-Thursday...Hot and dry conditions build as a 500mb ridge extends eastward across the Florida peninsula. Temperatures remain above normal, warming through the period. Coastal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday, reach into the upper 80s/ low 90s by Thursday. Following a similar trend, interior highs ranging the low 90s climb into the mid 90s through mid week. The best chance for any precip looks to be Tuesday (~20%). Otherwise, the forecast remains dry. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 337 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Drier conditions are forecast next week, as min RH once again falls to around 35% for much of the area by mid-week. Isolated lightning storms will be possible this weekend into Monday, with isolated to scattered showers. However, widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so further fuel drying is expected. Temperatures will climb well above normal through the period, with highs increasing to as high as the mid to upper 90s next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 67 84 68 85 / 0 20 10 30 MCO 68 89 69 88 / 0 20 10 30 MLB 69 84 70 84 / 0 10 10 20 VRB 68 85 68 85 / 10 20 10 20 LEE 68 90 70 88 / 0 30 20 40 SFB 67 89 69 88 / 0 20 10 30 ORL 68 89 69 88 / 0 20 10 30 FPR 67 84 68 85 / 10 20 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Heil LONG TERM...Weitlich AVIATION...Heil