691
AWUS01 KWNH 282319
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-290518-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0197
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
719 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Areas affected...northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282318Z - 290518Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms continue to deepen near/east of
Tulsa currently.  These storms are producing estimated 1 inch/hr
rain rates that should spread northeastward into southwestern
Missouri over the next 2-4 hours.  Flash flooding could occur in a
few locations as a result.

Discussion...Forcing for ascent associated with a shortwave trough
over eastern Oklahoma and low-level confluence was aiding in
continued development of thunderstorms primarily across
northeastern Oklahoma over the past couple hours.  These storms
are loosely organized/cellular, but aligned favorably parallel
with southwesterly flow aloft to produce spots of estimated 1-1.25
inch/hr rain rates per MRMS - especially east of Tulsa (northwest
of Tahlequah).  These cells were in a marginally buoyant
environment (500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and moving northeastward into a
recovering airmass with gradual destabiliation (primarily owing to
cooling aloft).  On its current track, these storms should enter
southwestern Missouri beginning in the next hour, with spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates posing a risk of flash flooding especially in
low-lying areas.

FFG thresholds are in the 1 inch/hr range areawide, but are lower
northwest of an axis from Crawford County, KS to Morgan County, MO
where very heavy rainfall fell yesterday.  Soils along and
northwest of this axis are likely to still be water logged and
susceptible to quick runoff in the event convective cells can make
it into this region.  This risk is a a bit conditional, however,
as trajectories seem to favor northeastward movement into Missouri
just south of this axis.  Flash flooding is possible where
convective training is most pronounced.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38929271 38689191 37749188 36739261 35339488
            35009644 36079637 37209534 38379435