397
FNUS73 KMPX 030957
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Ringo Nest WMA Rx...Minnesota DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
457 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will warm quickly from the mid-50s at ignition time
to the mid to upper 60s by early afternoon. RH values will likely
remain around 50% or higher during the afternoon, but could
potentially approach 40% if temperatures overachieve by a few
degrees. Cloud cover increases during the afternoon with a slight
chance of rain showers late this afternoon & evening. WInds will
be generally SW to WSW around 10 mph through mid afternoon. A
wind shift is expected during the late afternoon or evening, which
will result in winds becoming more northerly with speeds still
around 10 mph.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 62.
RH..................53 percent at ignition...Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 12 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /34000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /61400 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                        SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............55  57  59  61  62  62  60  57  54  52  50  49
RH..............53  49  45  44  43  43  47  55  61  69  77  80
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N
20 FT wind spd..12  10  10  9   10  8   8   10  10  9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.17  16  16  14  16  13  13  16  16  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.8 3.2 4.0 4.3 4.7 3.8 2.1 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  N   N   N   NW
Transp wind spd.17  17  14  15  16  15  13  13  15  13  12  13
Haines index....6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely in
                    the evening, then rain showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 43.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (23300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then slight
                    chance of rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (92900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 18
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Ahasic
Requested by...Area Wildlife Supervisor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413051.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cory.netland@state.mn.us