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000
FXUS63 KMQT 102123
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
523 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Deepening low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region
  Thursday night, bringing showers to much of the area Thursday
  into Friday.
- Gusty north to northwest winds to at least 35mph are expected
  late Thursday night and Friday, mainly central and eastern
  Upper MI with high end gales developing over eastern Lake
  Superior.
- Periodic showers into next week, including Saturday night into
  early Sunday, and then also later Monday into Wednesday as
  another strong low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region.
- Temperatures on most days will above normal through the first
  half of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

It`s been a gorgeous springlike day across Upper Michigan with our
office warming to 61F as of 2 PM EDT. A morning low of 41F yields a
daily average temperature (so far) of 51F, which is more typical of
mid-May. However, the record high of 73F set back in 1977 is safely
out of reach since radar imagery shows a lake breeze boundary nearly
to our office. Observations at the lakeshore have only cooled by 5-
10F so it`ll still be unseasonably warm this afternoon. There`s also
a Lake MI lake breeze and it appears to be somewhat stronger given
more radar returns. Otherwise, generally light west winds are
organizing cumulus cloud streets across the west-central U.P.

Looking ahead through tonight, mostly dry weather is expected even
though two shortwave pass nearby. The first weaker disturbance can
be seen over northern MN/WI and the more substantial disturbance is
across the Dakotas. Visible satellite shows an agitated cumulus
field across northern WI and portions of northern MN with some
weak radar returns. The northern WI showers may scrape the far
western UP this afternoon and evening, but most places are
expected to stay dry. The Dakotas shortwave is more noteworthy,
but also digs southeast toward a deepening low pressure across
the Lower MS Valley ultimately missing our area. HREF means
indicate only small patches of measurable rain ~0.01" over the
next 24-hours so kept forecast dry after diurnal heating wanes
this evening. A warm start to the night combined with increasing
cloud cover should keep lows around 40F. Otherwise light winds
are expected with a cool front moving into the area from the
northwest at the end of this forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 521 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

An active long term period is on the way. Split flow will largely
dominate, but phasing of northern and southern stream energy will
lead to deepening low pres tracking from the Lwr Mississippi Valley
this evening, across the middle of the Great Lakes region late Thu
into Fri morning, then into se Canada Fri night. Meanwhile, a
vigorous wave dropping from the Gulf of AK today will reach the sw
U.S. on Sun. To the n, the northern stream will send at least a
couple of waves along the vcnty of the International Border during
the weekend. Then, back to the w, the wave over the sw U.S. on Sun
will get kicked ne early next week by another wave dropping from the
Gulf of AK into the western U.S. The wave will support another
strong low pres system, this time tracking ne across the Plains to
the Upper Mississippi Valley and into northern Ontario late Mon
into Wed. Under this active pattern, expect wet weather Thu into Fri
with the first system. After a brief break early in the weekend, the
waves tracking along the vcnty of the International Border will
support at least sct shra late Sat into early Sun. Timing pcpn gets
more uncertain early next week, but that`s no surprise as we move
farther out in the fcst. At a minimum, vigorous low pres moving ne
across the Plains to northern Ontario will bring another round of
shra into the area Mon night thru Tue night, probably lingering on
Wed, but with diminished coverage. As for temps, expect temps to be
on the warm side of normal, except on Fri as gusty n to nw winds
drive cooler air into the area on the backside of the deep low
lifting thru the Great Lakes region. In the wake of the low pres
moving across the area on Tue, mid-level troffing will drift across
the Upper Great Lakes late next week thru the weekend, suggesting a
period of slightly blo normal temps will occur at that time.

On Thu, deepening low pres will lift from the Lwr Ohio Valley to se
Lwr MI by evening. Steady rain expanding to the nw of the deepening
sfc/850mb lows will advance toward the area, but there is quite a
spread in 12z deterministic solutions regarding how quickly or even
if rain does reach the fcst area on Thu. Based on ensembles, fcst
will reflect mention of shra into the se fcst area Thu aftn, but
mainly toward evening. Most of the e thru most of the day will
likely be dry. Meanwhile, weak sfc trof associated with a shortwave
in northern Ontario will reach western Upper MI tonight, then drift
e on Thu. With circulation around the deepening sfc low to the se
really not expanding into Upper MI on Thu, the sfc trof and
developing lake breeze wind components will lead to a zone of
convergence cutting across central Upper MI in the aftn. Modest
insolation thru thickening clouds will allow for some instability to
develop in this area as well, supporting shra development. MLCAPE
increases to as high as 200-300j/kg in the NAM/HRRR, but ranges down
to as low around 50j/kg or less with FV3/ARW. Might be a rumble or
two of thunder, mainly in the Iron/Dickinson county area if the
higher end MLCAPE materializes. Expect high temps in the 50s F,
cooler near the lakeshores. Will be coolest near the western Upper
MI shore as winds will be onshore to start the day.

Deep sfc low lifts across eastern Lake Huron Fri night. Even during
this period, some of the 12z deterministic guidance indicates the
rain will remain e of the fcst area or only just brush the far e.
Ensembles support a wetter scenario, so fcst does have rain
expanding over the eastern half of the fcst area Thu night (up to
around 80pct chc e). Rain will linger thru Fri morning, then
gradually end from the w in the aftn. Bigger story will be the
expanding wind field around the low that will bring increasing n to
nw winds to the area Thu night/Fri, especially e half. Fcst
soundings suggest mixing will easily support gusts to around 35mph,
with potential for gusts up to 45mph. NBM probabilities of gusts to
45mph are low, up to as high as around 25pct over the eastern fcst
area. With the blustery northerly winds on Fri, temps will range
from the lwr 40s F nw thru n central into the e and n to around 50 s
central.

Sfc high pres shifts across Upper MI on Sat. However, a wave
tracking e along the vcnty of the International Border will spread
advancing waa/isentropic ascent toward Upper MI by evening. GFS has
an especially sharp 850mb theta-e gradient at the leading edge to
support the streak of shra it indicates thru portions of the w half
of Upper MI already btwn 18z-24z Sat. It also has a much more
favorable alignment of upper jet to the n and ne to increase upper
diffluence. While it can`t be discounted, fcst for now has daytime
Sat as dry based on majority of guidance.

In response to the shortwave, weak sfc low developing over the
Dakotas on Sat streaks to Lwr MI on Sun. Combination of isentropic
ascent and a rather sharp 850mb theta-e gradient advancing across
the area will support at least sct -shra development Sat night into
early Sun morning. Ahead of the low, a pool of instability aloft, 500-
1000j/kg, builds toward Upper MI Sat night as well. This instability
should remain sw of the area, but if northern edge does spread into
Upper MI, isold elevated thunderstorms would be possible. After any
early -shra on Sun, the rest of the day will be dry. Highs on Sun
will be well into the 60s F across the interior w half.

Another wave tracking along the U.S./Canada border may generate some
shra on Mon, but otherwise, attention early next week turns to the
wave over the sw U.S. That wave will get kicked ne by the next
shortwave dropping into the western U.S. Sfc response will be a deep
sfc low developing to the lee of Rockies that then lifts ne across
the Plains to northern Ontario. Guidance indicates that the low will
reach peak depth over the Plains and then begin to slowly weaken as
it approaches. With a good surge of gulf moisture ahead of it,
expect shra, maybe some thunder, mainly on Tue. Will be breezy as
well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Weak ridging ahead of an approaching system resulted in abundant
morning sunshine with visible satellite imagery showing a diurnal
cumulus field developing over the past 2-3 hours. These Cu have VFR
bases around 5-7 kft and radar imagery shows a few sprinkles or
light rain showers developing along the Lake MI lake breeze
boundary. Radar also shows a lake breeze boundary approaching SAW
and extrapolating recent imagery suggests a wind shift around 1500
EDT, but winds remain light. Additional, widely spaced
sprinkles or light rain showers are expected at IWD/SAW this
afternoon and early evening, especially along lake breeze
boundaries. Cig/vsby impacts are not anticipated so showers
were not included in TAFs. Otherwise, winds become light and
variable tonight ahead of a cold front that brings northerly
winds by late Thursday morning at CMX/IWD to afternoon at SAW.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 521 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Under a weak pres gradient, winds will remain under 20kt across Lake
Superior tonight thru Thu aftn. Attention then turns to deep low
pres tracking from the Lwr Mississippi Valley this evening, across
the middle of the Great Lakes region late Thu into Fri morning, then
into se Canada Fri night. In response, N to NNW winds will ramp up
Thu night, reaching 35-40kt gales overnight across the e half of the
lake. Winds will increase further to 40-45kt across the eastern
portion of the lake Fri morning. Internal probability guidance
indicates a 70-80 pct chance of the high end gales with even up to a
30pct chance of peak gusts reaching storm force over the far se part
of the lake btwn Grand Marais and Whitefish Pt. As the low pulls
away and high pres ridge arrives on Sat, winds will diminish to blo
gale force Fri night and to mostly 20kt or less during Sat. Winds
will then remain mostly under 20kt on Sun. Another deep low will
begin to organize over the western Plains late on Mon. Easterly
winds will begin to increase late Mon with gusts to 25-30kt by late
Mon night. Early indications point to a 60-70pct chance of easterly
gales on Tue.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon
     for LSZ244-245-248-265.

  Gale Watch from late Thursday night through late Friday night
     for LSZ249>251-266-267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday evening for
     LMZ248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EK
LONG TERM...Rolfson
AVIATION...EK
MARINE...Rolfson