Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 232322
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
722 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Key Messages:

1. Skies will clear throughout the rest of today.

2. Near freezing to below freezing temperatures expected area-wide
tonight. Patchy frost in wind sheltered locations is possible early
Sunday morning.

Discussion:

Currently the clearing line of skies is moving into the eastern
Tennessee Valley, and most places should get a chance to see the sun
before sunset tonight. This clearing line will also bring with it
slightly more north to north easterly winds throughout the rest of
the evening and into tomorrow. The clear skies overnight will help
create efficient radiational cooling and temperatures will drop into
the 20s or 30s across the entire region. Areas along and north of
Interstate 40 could see sub freezing temperatures, while locations
to the south of the Interstate will still see temperatures drop into
the 30s. Areas in the higher elevations will likely drop well
below freezing overnight. There is the possibility of frost
forming south of Interstate 40, but winds are expected to remain 5
to 10 knots overnight, which will make frost formation difficult.
However, locations sheltered from the wind could see some patchy
frost overnight. The freeze watch in far southeast TN and
southwest NC will be converted to a freeze warning for early
Sunday morning.

After sunrise the temperatures will quickly jump back up above
freezing and into the 50s before noon. After a cold morning
temperatures will jump back up to near seasonal normals by the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Key Messages:

1. Very dry conditions will continue into Monday and Monday night
with a strong southeasterly wind, which will increase the focus on
fire conditions.

2. A mountain wave high wind event is increasingly likely Monday
night into Tuesday with the arrival of showers and possibly isolated
thunder.

3. Cooler conditions arrive late in the week with potential for
morning frost/freeze by Friday morning.

Sunday night through Tuesday...

A deep trough will be gearing up to slowly track from the
southwestern U.S. A strong surface low will gradually develop
northeastward towards Iowa by Monday morning. This system will move
very slowly due to the amplitude of the trough. Strong southerly
flow will advect plenty of moisture along and ahead of the front
farther west. The downslope component over E TN and SW VA will
actually dry the surface and cause RH to drop into the upper 20s to
lower 30s. The surface pressure gradient will really tighten across
much of Tennessee on Monday. As a result, breezy southwesterly winds
are expected across much of the forecast area Monday, especially
into Monday night. Cold air damming will occur on the NC side of the
mountains and the deep surface low near the Great Lakes will help
set up a mountain wave event for the TN mountains and adjacent
foothills. Rain will finally being to move into the region after
midnight Tuesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms will be possibly
mainly west of I-75 and could help add to QPF amounts.

Lingering low end PoP will persist into Wednesday post frontal but
temperatures will generally be in the 60s. The colder air will
really move in by Friday morning where some areas could see frost
and freezing temperatures. There is a hint in the NBM and
deterministic models of a shortwave moving out of the Ohio Valley
setting our region up in a northwest flow (slight chance) situation
next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Clouds have cleared from most of the area, with only the
mountains, northeast TN, and southwest VA still under a broken
MVFR deck. Skies will be clear tonight, and all TAF sites will be
VFR through the period, with high clouds arriving tomorrow
afternoon. Winds will weaken and remain light and northerly to
northeasterly overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             36  66  45  63 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  33  64  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       33  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              28  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for East Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...Wellington


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