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000
FXUS65 KMSO 091850
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1250 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...Radar returns this afternoon are showing showers
across the Northern Rockies. Shower activity will continue into
this evening and spread further north as a shortwave trough
moves along the Canadian border. Isolated lightning across
northwest Montana will not be out of the question (about 30%
chance). An upper level jet streak will become situated over the
Northern Rockies this afternoon, allowing stronger winds to
descend to the surface. Expect gusty westerly winds of about 25
mph in the higher terrain and over Flathead Lake this afternoon
and evening.

Precipitation will decrease rapidly with sunset as a ridge of high
pressure begins to build over western Montana and north central
Idaho tonight. The ridge of high pressure will remain firmly in
place over the region into Friday. As the flow aloft transitions
to southwesterly and then southerly, conditions will become
favorable for afternoon and evening thunderstorms beginning Friday
afternoon and lasting through the weekend. Speaking of the
weekend, there is still a fair amount of spread in just how warm
temperatures will be. A majority of model solutions (60 percent)
strengthen high pressure as a cut off low pressure system digs
southwards along the California coast. The other 40 percent of
forecast models support a cooler more unsettled pattern. By early
next week, forecast models largely favor (75 percent) a cooler and
potentially wet pattern returning to the region.


&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation has become showery in nature this
afternoon, with a few lightning strikes possible this afternoon
especially in northwest MT. Breezy westerly winds are anticipated
for all airfields, with gusts to near 25 kts possible for KGPI,
KMSO, KBTM and KHRF. Showers will come to an end around sunset
this evening as high pressure begins to build over the region.
Some patchy fog will be possible by Wednesday morning.






&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$