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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center
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AGUS73 KMSR 231639
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

...PRECIPITATION...

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS... OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FELL IN A SWATH FROM
EAU CLAIRE WISCONSIN ACROSS NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND THROUGH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN NORTH OF SAGINAW. THIS BAND ALSO SAW SEVERAL
ISOLATED REPORTS OVER TWO INCHES.  CHICAGOLAND AND NORTHEAST IOWA
ALSO SAW SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH REPORTS OVER AN INCH. ELSEWHERE...
LIGHTER TOTALS WERE ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA... UPPER MICHIGAN... IOWA AND ILLINOIS. TOTALS GENERALLY
RANGED FROM A TENTH TO A HALF INCH.

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS... THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST...
LEAVING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN ILLINOIS AND UP TO A QUARTER INCH
IN LOWER MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER IS
SETTING IN FROM THE WEST.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND... EXPECT A MINOR SHORTWAVE TO BREAK IN UNDER
THE HIGH PRESSURE... BRINGING ISOLATED STORMS TO IOWA AND
MISSOURI... INTO ILLINOIS.  THAT UPPER INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK... SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NCRFC AREA.


...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER THE NCRFC AREA IN THE PAST
FEW DAYS HAS CAUSE PORTIONS OF IOWA AND NORTH DAKOTA TO
EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.


NORTH DAKOTA:
THE PEMBINA, TONGUE, AND PARK RIVERS IN THE RED RIVER OF THE
NORTH WATERSHED ARE EXPERIENCING MAJOR FLOODING.  OTHER SMALLER
CREEKS/STREAMS/RIVERS IN THE AREA ARE LIKELY DANGEROUSLY HIGH.
THE PEMBINA RIVER ITSELF AT WALHALLA IS NOW IN RECESSION AFTER
CRESTING ABOVE MODERATE A FEW DAYS AGO.  THE WATER HAS SINCE
ROUTED DOWNSTREAM AND CAUSED NECHE TO GO ABOVE MAJOR.  NECHE HAS
NOW CRESTED AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE MAJOR FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON HAS CRESTED AT 16.2 FEET... WHICH IS
ONLY A FEW TENTHS BELOW THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 1950.  LEVEL SHOULD
FALL BELOW MAJOR IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO DAYS.

THE TONGUE RIVER AT AKRA IS EXPERIENCING RECORD FLOWS SINCE THE
CONSTRUCTION OF THE RENWICK DAM (1962).  CURRENTLY THERE ARE FLOOD
FIGHTING OPERATIONS IN PLACE TO REINFORCE THE DAM IN THE AREA.
LATEST LAKE RENWICK LEVELS ARE AT 987.5 FEET AND FALLING ABOUT
FIVE HUNDRETHS AN HOUR.

ALL OF THIS WATER FROM THE RED RIVER TRIBUTARIES IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE SOME FLOODING ON THE MAINSTEM.  MOST OF THE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR FOR NCRFC FORECAST POINTS.  THE ONLY FORECAST
POINT EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE MODERATE IS THE RED RIVER AT OSLO
MINNESOTA. OSLO IS EXPECTED TO CREST LATER THIS WEEK AROUND 32.5
FEET.


IOWA:
THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR FALLS CRESTED ABOVE MAJOR EARLIER THIS MORNING
AT 93.5 FEET.  THIS LOCATION HAS ALREADY FALLEN BELOW MAJOR AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND SHOULD BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE IN A FEW DAYS IF NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURS.  FURTHER DOWNSTREAM... MOSTLY JUST MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONESVILLE.. WHICH WILL CREST
AT MODERATE LATER THIS WEEK.

THE IOWA RIVER AT WAPELLO IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE.
THIS LOCATION IS FORECAST TO CREST LATER THIS WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST:  BAC... DAM... WES... RJW

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...JMP/JDT...
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
