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000
FXUS66 KMTR 172324
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
424 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Warm temps persist into the weekend with a slight cool off Friday
as a weak trough pushes through. Increased cloudiness late week
with a chance of coastal drizzle. Otherwise seasonal going into
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly clear conditions today with some highs clouds streaming
across the region. Not much change going into tomorrow. High temps
Thursday look to be pretty much on par with what is being seen
today, perhaps a couple of degrees cooler near the coast as the
ridge begins to break down.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1206 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Going into late Thursday, the high pressure ridge holding us
steady for the last few days begins to break down with the
approach of a weak trough embedded in the in the northwest flow.
Guidance has been fairly consistent in depicting this disturbance
as a weak, open wave that passes through fairly quickly. The main
effects will be a slight cooling of high temperatures for Friday
and increased cloud cover, especially for coastal areas. Overall
temps look to be about 3-5 degrees cooler on Friday than they were
on Thursday. The main factors here are increase onshore flow and
cloud cover. Deepening of the marine layer will also contribute to
a slight chance for patchy drizzle Friday and Saturday mornings,
especially near favored NW facing orographic areas near the coast.
Beyond Saturday, the ridge builds again going into the early part
of next week with temperatures remaining right around seasonal
normals. In the longer term, ensemble guidance advertises another
trough affecting the region by the middle of next week, but it is
unclear if this will be an efficient rain maker or not. Currently
about 25% of ensemble members reflect any measurable rain at all
for the area, so will need to wait for future forecasts to refine
any details.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 424 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR through the remainder of the day with possible lower stratus
returning for coastal terminals early Thursday morning. Monterey Bay
terminals may see IFR/LIFR conditions but confidence is moderate
therefore TEMPO was placed in the TAFs. Terminals return to VFR for
the remainder of the TAF period for all sites. Winds show some
variability across the region but mostly moderate to breezy winds
continue. Expect winds to continue to diminish tonight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the remainder of today with possible
MVFR conditions early Thursday morning. Moderate confidence on
ceilings, therefore a TEMPO was placed to reflect uncertainty. VFR
after 16-17Z. Breezy onshore winds will start to diminish to light
winds before becoming breezy again Thursday afternoon.

SFO Approach Bridge...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with a chance for IFR/LIFR conditions
early Thursday morning but confidence is low to moderate. Therefore,
TEMPO was placed. VFR will prevail after 18Z. Light to moderate
winds turn a bit S/SE overnight but terminals will return to onshore
direction by late Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 424 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue through
the day before decreasing to a moderate breeze on Thursday. After a
few days of favorable conditions, a cold frontal passage will bring
the return of a strong northerly breeze on Saturday. These winds
will help build rough seas in the outer waters by Sunday.

&&


Issued at 424 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue through  the day
before decreasing to a moderate breeze on Thursday. After a  few
days of favorable conditions, a cold frontal passage will bring
the return of a strong northerly breeze on Saturday. These winds
will help build rough seas in the outer waters by Sunday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...Bain

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