Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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429 FXUS64 KOHX 050536 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1236 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 843 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Good evening out there, Middle Tennesseans. Radar is finally clear at update time and flooding concerns have come to an end for now. It still feels "heavy" out there; relative humidity is near or at 100% for everyone. With that, there could be some areas of patchy dense fog overnight, more for our western and southwestern counties where more clearing is expected. Overnight lows will stay in the 60s tonight. A passing shower is possible, but it should be mostly dry for the remainder of tonight. More showers and thunderstorms are on the way tomorrow evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered showers and storms have been focused along the I-40 corridor today. We`ll likely see the peak of the activity over the next couple of hours, then coverage should fall off as these storms weaken and move northeast. While there is little forcing and shear to work with today, some updrafts could become strong, producing lightning and subsevere gusty winds. Activity will gradually taper off this afternoon. Cloud cover is keeping temperatures from becoming too warm too fast, but we could still see highs in the upper 70s and lows 80s before the day ends. Rain chances remain low tonight for most of the area. Our southern counties retain the best chance for an overnight shower and storm heading into Sunday. Temperatures should be slightly warmer Sunday afternoon as the bulk of any precip remains outside of Middle TN. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers and thunderstorms build back into the area late Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave swings into the Tennessee Valley from the southwest. There may be enough instability and shear to support a few strong storms on Monday, but severe isn`t expected at that point. The better potential for strong to possibly severe storms exists on Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system over the northern plains will swing a front through the Mississippi Valley Tuesday. We`ll just see the tail end of that...which will help push SBCAPE values over 2000 j/kg in our western counties along with an increase in bulk shear values (around 45 knots). PWATS are expected to be between 1.25 and 1.4 inches as well, so some strong to severe storms aren`t out of the question that afternoon, especially over our west where instability appears to be greatest. Wednesday will be similar, but with the higher CAPE values pushing further into Middle TN. Another developing low pressure system is expected to stir up storms to our west...where the better upper support exists, but we`ll still be close enough for some strong to severe storms to develop Wednesday afternoon and overnight. The good news is that we should see a break in precip after Wednesday night`s system. Some models are slow to move the rain out, but at some point Thursday or Friday we should see a reprieve from the repeated rounds of showers. Temperatures are also expected to back off as we head into Friday thanks to a passing upper wave and northwest winds aloft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Mainly VFR conditions are expected for this TAF cycle, but with small dew point depressions and light winds, MVFR fog is possible shortly before sunrise. More TS will move in tomorrow evening and likely affect CKV/BNA/MQY before 05Z. Winds will be light and mainly southwesterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 85 66 80 67 / 30 70 60 30 Clarksville 82 64 78 66 / 30 80 70 30 Crossville 79 61 75 61 / 40 50 60 40 Columbia 85 64 80 65 / 30 80 70 30 Cookeville 80 63 77 63 / 40 50 70 40 Jamestown 80 61 76 61 / 40 40 70 50 Lawrenceburg 85 64 80 65 / 30 80 60 30 Murfreesboro 86 64 81 65 / 30 70 60 30 Waverly 85 64 79 66 / 40 80 80 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...Whitehead LONG TERM....Whitehead AVIATION.....Unger