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000
FXUS61 KPHI 261825
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
225 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore today. A warm front attached to
low pressure over the Great Lakes moves by Saturday. Highs
pressure returns for Sunday and into next week. Another low and
front arrives for Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure centered over New England this afternoon will
shift very slowly eastward through tonight and Saturday. As this
occurs, a warm front will approach from the south and west
Saturday well ahead of a low pressure system moving through the
upper midwestern states. The upshot of all this is that the
weather will remain pretty quiet through the near term. It`s a
little on the cool side this afternoon, especially near the
coast, with east to southeast winds off the ocean. These winds
will diminish this evening and under the continuing influence
of high pressure with mainly clear skies it will be another
chilly night, though not as cold as this morning. Generally
expect lows ranging from the mid 30s in the colder spots of
eastern PA and interior NJ (where a Frost Advisory is in effect)
to around 40 or so over the urban corridor of SE PA, Delmarva,
and coastal NJ.

Saturday will start mainly clear with skies then clouding over
through the late morning into the afternoon from west to east
as the warm front approaches. There will be some showers
associated with this front approaching from the west but I think
they should be fizzling out as they reach eastern PA since the
low levels will be fairly dry. As a result, we just mention
isolated to scattered light showers in the forecast for Saturday
afternoon over eastern PA and Delmarva extending into adjacent
portions of NJ roughly as far east as around Trenton. The cloud
cover will keep temperatures a bit cool with highs in the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A transition to early summer readings will occur through the
latter part of the weekend. Mild and dry weather will be around
for Sunday. Following the warm front, a deep southerly flow
will arrive over the area, so increasing warmth and humidity is
expected. Highs Sunday will be in the upper 70s/low 80s in most
spots, but cooler near the shore and up across the Poconos. A
mild night expected as well with lows only reaching the mid 50s
to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Very warm temperatures for late spring will remain in place as
the upper ridge starts out across the eastern US to start off
the work week. High temperatures will likely be the warmest thus
far this season with much of the region reaching the low to mid
80s! Gradually, this ridge weakens and allows more scattered
shortwave energy to arrive across the area. For Tuesday and into
Wednesday, a cold front will approach the area and then wash
out as it moves through. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms will certainly be possible, mainly Tuesday
afternoon and Tuesday night, but overall probabilities remain
around the 25-45% range.

Another system will approach the region Thursday, though there
remains quite a bit of model spread in timing and evolution.
Sticking close to our consensus blend, leaving a 20-30% chance
for showers.

Temperatures remain above average in the mid 70s to low 80s
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through today...VFR. East to southeast winds 5-10 kts. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR. East to southeast winds dropping to 5 kts or
less. High confidence.

Saturday...VFR. Increasing clouds with broken cigs around 5 to
7 thousand feet by late day. Southeast to south winds around 10
knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...VFR prevail. A few moments of
sub- VFR conditions possible Saturday night as a warm front
pushes through with scattered showers. Otherwise, a dry
forecast.

Tuesday...VFR to start with sub-VFR conditions potentially
arriving in the afternoon and evening with the arrival of a weak cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through
Saturday with east to southeast winds generally around 10 knots
and seas 2 to 4 feet.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday... Winds and seas will remain
below SCA criteria through the period. Fair weather expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Min RH values will be in the 25-30% range today. However, with
winds so low, around 10 MPH or less, the threat for the rapid
spread of wildfire remains low.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low was tied at Trenton this morning. Elsewhere,
temperatures remained above the records as of just before 7AM.

ABE/Allentown              30 in 2001/1967/1934
ACY/Atlantic City Airport  28 in 1967
55N/Atlantic City Marina   34 in 1883
GED/Georgetown             30 in 1964
MPO/Mount Pocono           18 in 1919
PHL/Philadelphia           35 in 1967/1919
RDG/Reading                27 in 1972
TTN/Trenton                33 in 1919
ILG/Wilmington             32 in 1919

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ060>062-
     103-105-106.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015>022-027.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/RCM
SHORT TERM...MJL/OHara
LONG TERM...MJL/OHara
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MJL/RCM
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MJL/RCM
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...