Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 252045
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow fades away to flurries this evening over the mountains,
  only some spotty, light (1-2 inch) additional accumulations
  expected

- Snow showers (maybe a brief thunderstorm) redevelop over the mountains
  Tuesday afternoon, with a mix of rain and snow showers at
  lower elevations. Only light (1-2 inch) accumulations expected
  over mainly the higher peaks

- Warming and drying trend through late week with increasing winds.

- Another storm system possible Late Sunday through Tue of next
  week though details still prone to change this far out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Snow quickly fading away this afternoon, with webcams, obs and
radar showing rapidly improving visibility and road conditions at
most locations. Have seen some redevelopment on MRMS back over the
ern San Juans and wrn San Luis Valley, and HRRR suggests this
activity spreads eastward over the Valley into the Sangres late this
afternoon into early evening, so will keep highlights going for the
Sangres/Wets/ern San Juans until 6 pm or so. Activity should fade to
flurries fairly quickly after sunset, and with clearing skies,
overnight min temps will fall off into the teens and 20s at many
locations. On Tuesday, last piece of upper energy rotates across,
and with rather steep lapse rates, suspect we`ll see a plentiful
crop of afternoon snow showers over the high terrain, with a mix of
rain and snow at lower elevations. May even see a thunderstorm or
2 as well, especially if we can realize at least some partial
clearing from late morning into early afternoon. Prior to
convection, should be enough sun to boost temps above freezing over
all but the higher mountain zones, and a few non-snow covered spots
on the plains could approach 50f.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday as weaker waves in
NW flow act on instability to generate some mountain showers which
will spread off into the adjacent plains and valleys Tuesday
evening. Any additional precipitation looks light at this point
(additional 1-3 inches mainly over the mountains) and clears
out by Wednesday morning.

Upper ridge transitions in during the day Wednesday which will bring
about the start of a warming and drying trend, especially for the
lower elevations.  A passing shortwave will bring a return of snow
showers to the Continental Divide Thu Night/Friday but precipitation
looks light at this point. However as upper flow aloft transitions
to a more southwesterly component, breezy west winds will spread
into the lower elevations with spotty critical fire weather
conditions possible along the western and eastern fringe of the lee
side surface trough.  Areas to watch will be the southern I-25
corridor south of Pueblo and the far southeast plains of Baca, Las
Animas, Otero, Bent and Prowers counties, especially Sat and Sunday
with some near critical conditions possible as early as Thursday and
Friday.

The next storm system will approach the region on Sunday with Monday
and Tuesday of next week carrying the greatest potential for
widespread mountain snows and a rain/snow mix for the plains.  There
are still considerable differences in the long range models to work
out, with GFS and Canadian keeping the closed low across the Desert
Southwest through Tue...while 00z EC shifts it into the southern
plains by 00z Wed. GEFS is more progressive like the EC with a
faster timing.  No changes planned from National Model Blends at
this point given this is a day 8 and beyond event...but it will be
the next storm system in the que to monitor. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024

At KALS, still a threat of some brief MVFR snow showers until 03z,
then VFR cigs expected overnight into Tuesday morning. After 18z
Tue, vcsh likely as mountain snow showers move across the Valley
during the afternoon.

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR cigs into early evening should scatter
overnight, while gusty north winds continue to diminish. On Tue, VFR
conditions with a vcsh after 20z as mountain showers drift eastward
onto the plains.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ067-
068.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for
COZ072>075-079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...TORGERSON
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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