Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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825 FXUS65 KRIW 031845 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1245 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow ends this afternoon, with a clearing sky overnight. Patchy fog is possible (20%) for basins and near Casper due to recent moisture (snow). - High pressure Saturday brings warmer temperatures and dry weather. Warmer Sunday. - Gusty south wind Sunday. Gusts 30 to 50 mph for most of the area. Strongest winds over southern Sweetwater County, with high winds (gusts greater than 58mph) likely (80%). Impacts to I-80 and South Pass due to strong crosswinds. - Precipitation moves in Sunday, with widespread precipitation Monday. Snow levels drop to around 6000 feet. Cool and unsettled weather pattern through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 Snow has been falling across the area this morning as a cold front passes through. As the sun rises through the afternoon, any snow that has accumulated on grass should melt quickly. Clouds linger through the rest of the day, limiting high temperatures today. Many places peak in the upper 40s today, with the Bighorn Basin seeing a few places hit 50. These temperatures are roughly 10 degrees below normal. Any remaining precipitation comes to an end by around 03Z (9pm). As the trough moves eastward tonight, transitory ridging builds in for the weekend. Starting with Saturday, the day brings warm temperatures and a mainly clear sky (a stark difference from today). High temperatures for many reach the mid-to-upper 60s, with a few places hitting 70. A slight breeze develops in the afternoon (10-25 mph gusts), but should otherwise be a good day for any outdoor activities or chores. The high pressure shifts eastward for Sunday as a potent upper-level low swings into the northern California area. This brings a tight pressure gradient, as well as a 100 knot jet positioned into southern Sweetwater County. A strong south wind develops after sunrise, and especially for the afternoon and evening across Sweetwater County, northward into most of the CWA (exception being far northwest Wyoming). Where the exit region of the jet is (southern Sweetwater County), gusts up to 70 mph are possible if the upper levels are able to fully mix down. Shift of tails highlights this area in the 90th percentile. Elsewhere, widespread gusts 35 to 50 mph occur. Being a south wind, roads like I-80, South Pass/Red Canyon, and US-26 will be impacted as strong crosswinds occur. Precipitation chances move into western Wyoming Sunday morning, spreading east of the Divide for the afternoon and evening, with about a 20% chance of thunderstorms. Snow levels begin around 9000 feet Sunday, but drop to roughly 6000 feet through Monday morning. Therefore, lower elevations are expected to receive mostly rain from this system. That upper-level low moves into the Utah/Idaho/Wyoming area Sunday night and into Monday. Winds begin to shift to a more southwesterly direction, decreasing the gusts some from the day, but gusty winds continue through the night, especially from Sweetwater County up through Natrona County. For Monday, the center of the low is projected to move across Wyoming, then traveling northeastward near the Montana/North Dakota border. The GFS and ECMWF vary a bit in placement on this. Widespread precipitation occurs Monday. The heaviest precipitation will be where favored upslope occurs. Currently, this would be for the Bighorn Mountains and Johnson County, but as mentioned, there is still some uncertainty in exact storm track, which could alter where the best precipitation totals are favored. Will need to watch closely the next few days on where models agree on the storm track. The low is slow to move, as ridge over the eastern half of the country keeps it mostly in place. This would keep precipitation chances over the area Tuesday, especially over the northern half of Wyoming. Currently, models are keeping the influence of the low through Friday, so a cool, cloudy, and unsettled next week is in store. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri May 3 2024 West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals. An upper-level low is rotating through southwest Wyoming late Friday morning. Cold core and added lift will generate scattered snow showers and potentially brief MVFR conditions until around 21Z. In general, terminals remain VFR through the period. Gusty west to northwest wind 15-25kts becomes widespread by mid-afternoon on the backside of the upper low. Wind speeds diminish early this evening and lingering mid-cloud decks give way to a clearing sky. Mountain tops frequently obscured above 10K feet MSL until 01Z/Saturday. East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals. Moisture axis streaming across central Wyoming coupled with jet energy will support IFR/MVFR at KCPR until 20Z-21Z Friday. Improvement is already being noted at KRIW and KLND where the snow ends and VFR returns between 18Z-20Z Friday. KCOD sees VFR conditions develop during that same time period. Mid-cloud decks will clear between 23Z-02Z Friday evening. A clearing sky and sufficient boundary layer moisture may allow for fog development at KCPR and KRIW between 10Z-14Z/Saturday. This will need to be monitored for inclusion with the next routine TAF issuance. Mountains frequently obscured until 21Z, with tops obscured until 01Z/Saturday. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ015. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wittmann AVIATION...CNJ