818
FXUS61 KRLX 010522
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
122 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dense fog this morning as a cold front exits. High pressure
brings dry weather with a warming trend today into Friday.
Shower chances increase for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1015 PM Tuesday...

The forecast remains on track and no adjustments were made at
this time.

As of 730 PM Tuesday...

Cleaned up POPs to represent the last bit of activity going on
along the cold front and set the trend over the next several
hours at which point any activity should exit toward the east.
This exodus will clear out clouds and winds will go calm,
therefore fog will likely form across the area and become dense
at times through the morning. Also, nudged temperatures to
become more in line with the forecast as they were bouncing
around due to shower activity.

As of 125 PM Tuesday...

A cold front will continue to push eastward across the area this
afternoon, providing some showers and possible a few thunderstorms.
As the front moves off to the east this evening, the precipitation
will come to an end. With winds becoming light and the recent
rainfall, expect widespread dense fog to form tonight. Models
are showing another front on Wednesday, but moisture does not
look sufficient for any precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

A weak cold front stalls north of the region Wednesday night
amidst high zonal flow aloft yielding little in the way of
sensible weather concerns. This high zonal pattern gives way to
a building longwave ridge Thursday yielding continuing dry and
increasingly hot conditions for Thursday and most of the day
Friday.

50th percentile guidance is rather high for daytime highs both
days. Deterministic central guidance reflects highs several
degrees lower. Even these might be a little high given the
flush state of Spring vegetation across most of the area,
especially on Friday when at least some Gulf influence moisture
should start returning to the area prior to maximum heating.
This is likely a result of the 30 day bias period looking back
before we were properly greened up. Temperature records are
most likely secure with most reflecting values higher than even
the rather aggressive 75th percentile guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Increasing southwesterly flow in response to the ridge axis shifting
shifting east Friday along with surface low pressure transiting
the Upper Great Lakes yields an increasingly moist column late
Friday afternoon into Friday night. Precipitable water values
edge up toward 1.5 inches ahead of the approach of a cold front
associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes low Friday night.
Upper level support for this feature largely stays well to the
north allowing the front to wash out Friday night into Saturday.
This will also keep deep layer shear rather weak also yielding
relatively slow storm motions. Could potentially have some very
isolated water issues with multiple slow moving storms moving
over the same location, but given the state of vegetation and
recent dry conditions, concerns are relatively low.

The weak flow pattern persists through the weekend featuring mainly
diurnally driven convection.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 108 AM Wednesday...

Widespread dense fog will allow for IFR/LIFR restrictions or
lower across the forecast area this morning as skies begin to
clear from west to east and winds decrease. Shortly after
sunrise, dense fog will start to lift and dissipate between
~12-13Z, subsequently giving way to VFR under mostly clear
skies. This will last through the day until another round of
river valley fog arrives overnight into Thursday.

Winds calm to light and variable this morning, becoming light
and SW`rly during the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of dense fog this
morning could vary. Low stratus could form across the higher
portions of the mountains instead of dense fog.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 05/01/24
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible due to fog Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...RPY/JZ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...LTC