Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 260816
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Spot Forecast for Lake Sherwood Piles...USDA USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
416 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on March 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
20 foot winds will be southeast around 10 mph this morning,
increasing to 10-15 mph by noon. High clouds this morning will
lower this afternoon with light rain arriving by later in the
afternoon. A few gusts to 20 mph between 11am-3pm.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 60 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast 7 to 12 mph with
                    gusts to around 20 mph.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 10 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (19100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 21.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........84  82  79  85  91  97  92  87  83  87  100 100
Weather cov.....                                CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....                                RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  30  40  50  60
Temp............34  35  35  36  40  44  47  48  50  49  49  48
RH..............76  74  73  69  60  51  48  47  46  51  55  60
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   8   7   7   8   8   9  10  11  10   9   9
20 FT wind gust.12  13  11  9  12  11  13  16  16  16  15  13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.5
Mixng wind dir..E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Mixng wind spd..12  13  11  12  12  12  14  16  19  18  17  15
LVORI...........4   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............4   6   4   8   10  14  18  19  21  20  17  13
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
VRate mph-ft/1K.3   3   3   6   8   11  14  20  22  22  17  12

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely. Patchy fog
                    after 3 am.
CWR (0.01 in).......70 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 2 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast
                    1 to 2 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (700 knot-ft).
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................1 to 11.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........100    100    88     84     88     89
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............60     50     50     60     70     60
Temp............47     45     45     44     44     44
RH..............66     71     74     80     83     87
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 6   SE 5   SE 5   SE 4   SE 3
20 ft wind gust.11     10     7      6      6      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   1000   800    700    700    700
Mixing wind......SE 8   SE 7   SE 6   E 3    NE 1   NE 2
LVORI...........3      3      3      5      6      6
ADI.............11     6      4      2      1      1
Haines index....2      2      2      2      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.9      7      5      2      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog in
                    the morning. Rain likely in the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......60 percent decreasing to 20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 1 to 2 mph shifting to the northwest
                    0 to 2 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then shifting to the south 5 to 6
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (21700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................0 to 17.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........88     89     92     85     70     69
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............60     50     40     30     20     20
Temp............42     42     45     51     55     57
RH..............94     94     92     79     68     62
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 2   S 3    SW 4   SW 5   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.4      4      5      6      8      10
Mix hgt (ft)....500    400    1000   2200   3600   4100
Mixing wind......NE 2   NE 2   NW 1   N 0    NW 1   S 5
LVORI...........8      8      8      6      3      2
ADI.............1      2      1      0      3      13
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.1      1      1      0      4      19

$$
Forecaster...Perry
Requested by...Samuel Urffer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408432.0/RNK
.DELDT 03/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Samuel.Urffer@usda.gov


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