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000
FXUS63 KSGF 172259
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally significant fire weather conditions this
  afternoon, mainly east of Highway 65.

- An isolated strong to severe storm or two northwest of a line
  from Joplin, MO to Warsaw, MO late this evening into early
  tonight. Hail hail is the primary threat.

- Severe thunderstorms possible on Thursday. Large hail to the
  size of golf balls and 60 mph winds are the primary threats.
  Details are still in question, especially how far west the
  threat will extend.

- Frost possible over the eastern Ozarks Saturday night and
  Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

As mentioned in previous discussions, there is a chance for an
isolated thunderstorm or two over the northwestern CWA (roughly
along and NW of a line from Joplin, MO to Warsaw, MO) late this
evening into early tonight. Elevated instability along a
northward moving warm front on the right edge of the nose of
the LLJ will drive this potential. There are unknowns with how
far east the LLJ goes, how much elevated instability/inhibition
exist, and the result of how much convection we see across the
area. If storms can develop, there is a low end risk for 1"
hail.

The warm front will continue north through the night as a
surface low forms east of the CO Rockies. This should result in
storms N/NW of the CWA late tonight. There remains uncertainty
with the evolution of those storms, but most CAMs keep them N
of the area into Thursday morning. At the same time, the surface
low will move east into the CWA on Thursday, driven by a mid-
level impulse. Storms should develop late morning into early
afternoon along remnant outflow boundaries and the front as it
moves back south as a cold front an interact with a very
unstable environment (MUCAPE perhaps in the 2,000-3,500 J/kg
range), leading to potential for hail up to golf ball size (if
not larger) and damaging winds to 60 mph. The greatest coverage
is expected across the NE/E CWA, with less coverage and greater
uncertainty to the W/SW where a more pronounced EML (increased
CIN) will exist. Still, could see storms form over the W/SW
given the cold front moving in while the surface low moves up
the front combined with any outflow boundaries. The tornado
threat is quite low given poor low level shear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cooler weather is expected Friday through Monday with highs in
the 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s. There is potential for frost
over the cooler valleys of the eastern Ozarks Saturday night and
Sunday night. Highs warm back into the 70s for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Friday night into Saturday will see a 20-40% chance of rain,
greatest across the southern CWA. Additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms exist Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail tonight into
Friday morning. Winds will remain light out of the south to
southwest. Low level wind shear is possible at both SGF and JLN
overnight. On Friday, winds will increase out of the south with
frequent gusts over 20kts. Clouds will also increase with MVFR
ceilings arriving during the day. Thunderstorm chances are
uncertain at the TAF sites for the late afternoon and evening
and have included prob30 groups for now. A cold front will
switch the wind to the northwest at the end of the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Burchfield