Text Products for AFD Issued by SHV

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 280541
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1241 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Compared to 24 hours ago, tonight has trended quiet across the
region while an active evening continues across north Texas, and
southern and central Oklahoma. Temperatures remain in the mid to
upper 70`s areawide as some thin high clouds drift in from the
west, associated with the tall towers shearing off from
thunderstorms over Texas and Oklahoma.

What is left of the linear storm mode to the west will start to
enter the NW tier of the CWA by sunrise, buying any changes to
forward speed overnight. That being said, the extent of the early
AM severe potential remains to be seen and will be closely
monitored overnight. At this time, only changes needed in the
update was to remove PoPs from much of the overnight and adjust
hourlies to meet latest trends.

RK

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Very active weather should return to the region tonight, as a very
robust line of thunderstorms begins to work into our western zones
towards Sunday morning. This line will pose both a heavy rain
threat, and a severe weather threat for our entire area through
Monday evening. Given rainfall amounts the other day, and QPF
amounts expected into the new workweek, a flood watch will go into
effect Sunday morning, and remain in effect through the main heavy
rain window, with 2-4 inches of rain, and locally heavier amounts
possible.

Regarding the severe weather threat tomorrow, this is where it
gets...somewhat complicated. I hesitate to say the severe weather
threat is secondary compared to the flooding threat, because that
is certainly not the case, but the severe weather threat is very
conditional. On the flip side of that, the environment overhead is
very supportive of a severe weather threat, and I could very much
see portions of our region being upgraded into an Enhanced Risk
come tomorrow morning. It all boils down to forcing along the
boundary, and the scope of convection across the region through
tomorrow. Severe storms tomorrow would be capable of all modes of
severe weather, including embedded tornadoes along the main line.

This line of storms should exit the region by Monday evening, with
the flood watch expiring shortly behind it. However, look for a
disturbed pattern to continue into the long-term.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Disturbed pattern should remain across the region, as SW flow
quickly returns behind this trough. Rain should remain in the
forecast, before better rain chances return towards the weekend
with a small shortwave approaching the region. Additional moderate
to heavy rainfall may be possible with this system, but it
appears very progressive in nature. Regardless, look for
additional adjustments and updates to the forecast over the coming
week.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

For the 28/06Z TAFs, gusty conditions look to continue through the
night at most area terminals, particularly across east Texas, with
SSE winds maintaining speeds of 10 to 20 kts with gusts over 30
kts still possible. CIGs will descend to MVFR heights while
becoming increasingly overcast towards dawn ahead of incoming
storms, which look to impact northern and western ArkLaTex
airspace after daybreak, potentially impacting TXK TYR and GGG
through the morning. More potent impacts will develop in the
latter half of the TAF package, reflected with prevailing VCTS and
TSRA conditions.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  67  83  67 /  40 100  60  10
MLU  86  67  77  65 /  20  60  90  30
DEQ  78  61  82  59 /  90  80  20  10
TXK  83  65  81  64 /  70  90  30  10
ELD  84  63  78  62 /  40  90  80  20
TYR  81  66  83  66 /  80  80  20  10
GGG  82  66  83  66 /  70  90  30  10
LFK  84  67  85  67 /  50  90  50  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday evening
     for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday evening
     for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday evening
     for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...26
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
