962
FXUS64 KSJT 060644
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
144 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mainly a dry forecast the next 24 hours. Still could see a few
showers and storms develop along the I-10 corridor late this
afternoon but the bulk of any thunderstorm activity should
remain south of the area. Instability is rather weak due to
considerable cloud cover, so the threat for strong/severe
storms is low. Will maintain low POPs south of a Brady to
Ozona line this afternoon. May see some patchy fog develop over
southeast sections late tonight and early Monday morning, and
keep some patchy fog in the forecast over this area. Temperatures
will be mild tonight, due to plenty of stratus overnight into
Monday morning, with lows in the 60s.

On Monday, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will lift
northeast across the Rockies and into the central Plains by
Monday evening. A dryline will mix east and extend from northwest
Oklahoma, south across southwest Oklahoma and into central
potions of our forecast area by late afternoon. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected east of the dryline late Monday
afternoon and evening, with the greatest threat for significant
severe weather across Oklahoma into Kansas. Upper level support
will be much weaker farther south into the Big Country, but cannot
rule out a storm or two. Will keep POPs at 20 percent across far
northeast portions of the Big Country for now. Expect warmer
temperatures on Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across West Central
Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal normals. Highs across the Big Country will be in the mid
80s to near 90, with highs elsewhere in the low to mid 90s. Expect
generally dry conditions to prevail.

On Thursday, an upper level trough will track across the Northern
Plains, sending a cold front south through West Central Texas
Thursday morning. Expect gusty north winds along with cooler
temperatures behind the front. Highs in the Big Country will be in
the mid 70s to near 80, with highs elsewhere in the mid 80s to near
90. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along the front,
mainly across our southeast counties. Overnight lows will be in the
50s to near 60. The cooler temperatures will continue into Friday,
with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

This weekend, the GFS and ECMWF both show an upper level trough/low
developing across the Desert Southwest Saturday. This feature will
then track across the Southern Plains Sunday. The ECMWF is a bit
slower and deeper with this feature than the GFS, which results in a
wetter solution. Given the uncertainty, PoPs this weekend were kept
in the slight chance to low end chance category. Highs this weekend
will generally be in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Patchy MVFR and VFR cigs continue to spread northwest across West
Central Texas terminals early this morning, but satellite
indications are that the MVFR and IFR cigs should eventually
become more widespread before sunrise. These should lift and break
up through the morning and into the early afternoon with VFR
conditions returning for the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise, south to southeast winds this morning will shift
southwest and become more gusty my mid to late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     57  88  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  60  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    68  94  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   63  88  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  58  89  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       63  92  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       66  89  70  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...07