Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 231231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 23-Mar 25 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 23-Mar 25 2024

             Mar 23       Mar 24       Mar 25
00-03UT       2.67         2.33         5.00 (G1)
03-06UT       5.00 (G1)    2.33         6.00 (G2)
06-09UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         5.67 (G2)
09-12UT       4.00         2.00         5.00 (G1)
12-15UT       3.67         4.00         4.00
15-18UT       1.67         3.33         3.33
18-21UT       1.33         4.00         4.00
21-00UT       2.67         4.00         5.00 (G1)

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on
25 Mar due to a combination of CH HSS activity and the arrival of the 23
Mar CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 23-Mar 25 2024

              Mar 23  Mar 24  Mar 25
S1 or greater   99%     70%     30%

Rationale: S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storm levels are
expected to persist on 23 Mar and likely to continue on 24 Mar. There is
a chance for S1 (Minor) levels on 25 Mar.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 23 2024 0133 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 23-Mar 25 2024

              Mar 23        Mar 24        Mar 25
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           30%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) on 23-25 Mar due to the flare potential of
Regions 3614 and 3615.


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