Routine Space Environment Product (Daily) Issued by NWS
000
FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 22-Mar 24 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 22-Mar 24 2024
Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24
00-03UT 3.67 1.67 2.33
03-06UT 3.33 1.67 2.33
06-09UT 3.00 1.33 2.00
09-12UT 3.33 1.33 2.00
12-15UT 2.67 1.00 4.00
15-18UT 1.67 1.67 3.33
18-21UT 1.67 1.33 4.00
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 4.00
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2024
Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 22-Mar 24 2024
Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 24 Mar primarily
due to the evolution and flare potential exhibited by AR 3615.