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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210858
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
358 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Cloud cover remained common across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas early this morning ahead of surface high pressure
centered over Southwest Nebraska. At the same time...a positively
tilted upper level trof axis was dropping southeast through the
Central Plains. The combination of these two features moving into
the region will help to clear cloud cover during the day today
from north to south. Afternoon temperatures should respond with
highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Surface high pressure moves through the CWA tonight and off to
the southeast Monday morning. Underneath high pressure...little
to no winds combined with mostly clear skies will aid temps to
fall below the seasonal average into the 30s across most of the
CWA. The coldest locations are expected within the terrain of far
Northwest Arkansas were some low temperatures approaching the
freezing mark are possible. For now will hold off on any
frost/freeze headlines with the day shift re-evaluating.

Behind the departing surface high...southerly winds return Monday
and become gusty across Northeast Oklahoma. Gusts up around 30 mph
are forecast Monday afternoon which will help warm temperatures
back into the 70s for most of the CWA. These winds remain breezy
overnight ahead of a cold front forecast to move into the CWA
Tuesday afternoon.

Return flow helping to transport moisture back into the region
combined with increasing warm advection and a 30-45KT low level
jet late Monday night may allow for a slight chance of a shower
near the Kansas border. The greater potential for this should
remain north of the CWA though. A slight chance of showers/storms
are possible for Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas during
the day Tuesday with the front moving into the region. This
boundary is progged to remain over the region Tuesday night which
could be a focus for additional slight chances of showers/storms.
For now will go above the NBM and carry slight chance PoPs
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A vort max remains forecast
to move over top of the boundary Wednesday with continued shower
and thunderstorm chances. At this time the greater potential looks
to be north of Interstate 40 Wednesday.

Late week and into the weekend a low pressure system is forecast
to lift out of the Desert Southwest into the Plains with a second
long wave trof filling in right behind the lead low pressure late
weekend. At the surface...a dryline looks to set up out west
before the main cold front approaches the CWA just outside of
this forecast period. The boundary over the region Wednesday
returns north as a warm front Thursday with gusty southerly
winds...warmer temperatures and dewpoints back in the 60s through
the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase with storms
developing along the dryline and potentially moving into the CWA
each day. Increases in instability along with the moisture return
will allow for severe potentials late week into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A few scattered showers will remain possible overnight at KMLC/KFSM
before upper jet streak shifts east of the region. Otherwise, broken
mid clouds will give way to mostly clear skies Sunday morning with
light north winds by early Sunday evening as surface high pressure
builds over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  40  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   66  39  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   65  38  71  54 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   65  34  73  53 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   64  34  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   63  36  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   65  39  71  53 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   63  35  70  53 /   0   0   0  10
F10   65  39  70  54 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   64  39  69  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...12