Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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826 FXUS64 KTSA 071925 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A frontal boundary that lingers across the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma is forecast to surge back to the north overnight as a warm front with an area of low pressure moving into northern Osage County in northeast Oklahoma. By 12z Wednesday, the warm front is expected to be near Highway 412 across E OK into NW AR with a cold front extending from the surface low back into southwest Oklahoma. There is the potential for isolated to scattered storms to develop late tonight to the north of the warm front across northeast Oklahoma as isentropic lift increases across the area. A storm or two could become strong to severe during this time with large hail the primary concern. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue Wednesday morning in the vicinity of the warm front and the advancing cold front across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. There will continue to be adequate instability and deep layer shear for these storms to be strong to severe with large hail the main concern. However, any storms that can get rooted in the boundary layer will be capable of producing damaging winds and even a tornado. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated through the day in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves through the the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Any of these that develop during the afternoon and early evening will have the potential to be severe with all modes of severe weather possible. The storm potential comes to an end Wednesday evening as the cold front exits the region. Thursday through Sunday is forecast to be mostly dry with only a few showers/storms possible across far southeast Oklahoma on Thursday as a storm system grazes the area to the south. Otherwise, high pressure is expected to prevail. The next chance of showers and storms arrives Sunday night and continues into early next week as an upper level low drifts over the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon and through this evening. As a cold front approaches from the northwest overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning, strong low-level wind shear will develop over all of the TAF sites, mostly impacting the terminals between midnight tonight and sunrise Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along the cold front as it pushes through the area during the mid-late morning hours. Guidance indicates MVFR ceilings developing ahead of the frontal boundary, with VFR conditions returning for the northeast Oklahoma terminals by or just before midday behind the cold front. MVFR ceilings, along with rain/storms will likely linger at MLC and the Arkansas terminals through the end of the TAF period. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 62 84 54 79 / 20 50 10 0 FSM 63 87 59 83 / 10 50 40 10 MLC 64 86 59 81 / 10 20 20 10 BVO 55 82 49 77 / 20 20 0 0 FYV 59 84 54 79 / 10 60 30 10 BYV 57 83 53 77 / 10 70 30 10 MKO 60 84 54 77 / 10 40 10 10 MIO 57 81 51 75 / 10 50 10 0 F10 61 85 54 77 / 10 30 10 10 HHW 66 85 62 82 / 10 30 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...67