Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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552 FXUS63 KUNR 180810 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 210 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry, cooler and breezy today. - Warmer Sunday with thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening. - Unsettled pattern continues through the coming week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday) Issued at 202 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 Current surface map places cold front across eastern South Dakota into central Nebraska. Best pressure rises are currently over western South Dakota with a few gusts around 50 mph just east of the Black Hills. Winds will continue to drop off through the night as pressure rise bubble moves east. Tail end of shortwave is bringing a few showers to far northwestern South Dakota with this activity shifting north and east of the forecast area in the next few hours. Surface high builds across the are today, with cooler/breezy conditions. Upper trough moves across the northern Rockies Sunday with surface low tracking through eastern Wyoming into the Black Hills area during the day. Low level thermal ridge peaks Sunday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Thunderstorms chances increase during the day with steep mid level lapse rates and an uptick in low level moisture. MLCAPE around 1000J/KG and sufficient bulk shear will support a severe threat from the Black Hills into central South Dakota. Upper trough lingers across the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies through much of the coming week with a series of impulses crossing the area. This will result in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and temperatures near seasonal averages. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued At 1038 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kts will continue across the western SD plains for the next several hours behind a cold front. Isolated stronger gusts are possible in any lingering showers, which will move out of the CWA tonight. Breezy winds will continue across especially NW SD early Saturday, but winds will diminish throughout the day. Other than any brief MVFR conditions in showers, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT early this morning for SDZ001-002- 012>014-025-026-031-032-072-073-078. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7 AVIATION...Pojorlie