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000
FNUS73 KUNR 121327
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Ellsworth Spring 2024...US FWS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
727 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on April 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A warming trend continues today into the weekend as
ridge of high pressure gradually passes over the region. Though
green-up is progressing across the area, a period of elevated fire
weather conditions is possible across portions of the western
South Dakota plains this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase
this morning to 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Winds will
continue into tonight, shifting to the southwest after midnight.
An area of low pressure will cross the region on Saturday,
bringing a wind shift to the north in the late morning or early
afternoon. There is a possibility of a shower or thunderstorm
Saturday afternoon, which may result in gusty, erratic winds.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5000 to 5500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Becoming partly
cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms
 in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north
                    in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......11900 to 12400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...13
Requested by...Bela HArrington
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410367.1/UNR
.DELDT 04/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bela_harrington@fws.gov