Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 012105
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE TONIGHT...THE COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LAKE EFFECT LOOKS FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT FARTHER EAST
THAN LAST NIGHT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION AND FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKE.  DRY AIR IS STILL A CONCERN...BUT WITH THIS LONG OF
A FETCH THIS IS LIKELY TO BE OVERWHELMED BY THE MODIFICATION BY THE
LAKE AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT.  HOWEVER...AFTER MIDNIGHT THE WIND
TURNS FAR ENOUGH AROUND TOWARDS NORTHWEST THAT THE FETCH SHORTENS
CONSIDERABLY.  EXPECT THAT THE SNOW BANDS ARE LIKELY TO SHUT OFF
SOMETIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM...BUT THEY CAN BE PERSISTENT AND
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 6 AM AND IT
CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY ONCE THE BANDS SHUT DOWN.  BACK TO THIS
AFTERNOON...DIURNAL EFFECTS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE BANDS SOMEWHAT WITH
MUCH WEAKER ECHOES ON RADAR SINCE ABOUT 18Z...AND SATELLITE SHOWS
THE BANDS ARE NARROWER AND DO NOT EXTEND VERY FAR INLAND.  DO NOT
EXPECT WE ARE GETTING MORE THAN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO CANCEL THE AFTERNOON PART OF THE ADVISORY AND START IT
BACK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND ONLY FOR BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON
COUNTIES.

CLEARING SKIES AND THE RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 20
BELOW RANGE...WITH SOME LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS.  WINDS WILL ALSO DROP
OFF...AND FOR NOW WE DO NOT APPEAR TO DO ANYTHING MORE THAN FLIRT
WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO DO AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA.  THIS FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND MIGHT PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETTING IN ALOFT...HAVE PUT IN SOME HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL LIKELY BRING BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD COVER AND SNOW FLURRIES. THE
CLOUD COVER...AS LONG AS IT PANS OUT...WILL LIKELY PROP UP
TEMPERATURES. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CAME IN
COLDER...SO I LOWERED THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SHOULD PARTLY CLEAR TUESDAY
THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE NORTHERN AREA. A PASSING
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDIER SKIES OVER THE
SOUTHERN FA.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE TUESDAY
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD BRING MORE SNOW FLURRIES TO THE
NORTHLAND. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR NW WISCONSIN THANKS TO THE VERY COLD NW FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHERN IRON COUNTY COULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ZERO DEGREES. IF THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
WIND...THEN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF -25 DEGREES OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN FA OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THURSDAY AS SOUTH TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS
WITH A PASSING TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A
CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BETWEEN NORTH
DAKOTA AND MANITOBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF NE MINNESOTA HAD
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND 10 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
N TO NNE WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH...WERE RESULTING IN
OVC MVFR CIGS OVER NW WISCONSIN.

THE WINDS WILL BACK AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NE MINNESOTA TERMINALS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A VERY LOW THREAT OF FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE MVFR CIGS AT KHYR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE WIND
TRAJECTORY BECOMES WEAKER AND MORE NORTHERLY. ONCE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TO KHYR BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN VFR WILL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW THREAT
OF FOG AT KHYR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -9  14   4  16 /   0   0  10  10
INL -20  11  -9  10 /   0  20  10  10
BRD  -8  17   6  18 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  -9  14   3  19 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  -3  15   6  19 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







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