Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 031143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COOL FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. WEAK ISENTROPIC
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AT AROUND
4000 FT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDER OVER GUTHRIE COUNTY AT
0830Z. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING ISO THUNDER
NEXT FEW HOURS...H850 WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIFT YET THROUGH 12Z
AND WILL MONITOR. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF DAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
AGAIN PUSHING IN FROM EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS FRONT LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL SHOULD BE A MORE
PLEASANT DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER MAY
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SUNK THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE A CONTINUOUS PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT ITS MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD/NORTHWARD TO BE
SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY AND SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE PUSH OF MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DIGGING INTO KS/MO WEDNESDAY AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO TRAVERSE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH BKN040
REPORTED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO SCT OUT AS SUN HEATS
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
SOUTH OF REGION WITH GRADUAL DRIFT NORTH EXPECTED AFT 20Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL MIX NORTHERN SITES AFT 17Z TODAY TO NEAR 20KTS WITH
LESSER GUSTS SOUTH. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR...LOWERING TO
BKN080 SOUTH AFT 08Z TUE. SMALL CHANCE THAT -TSRA/-SHRA MAY MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT KDSM AND KOTM BETWEEN 04/09 AND
04/12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



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