Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 012003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
203 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHILE A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ENTER THE
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY
RAINFALLS MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS SO PERSONS SHOULD STAY
ALERT FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE AND WARM STABLE AIR
ALOFT WILL KEEP UPDRAFTS SUPPRESSED OVER MOST OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE BARELY SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE ARIZONA FOR VERY ISOLATED
STORMS BUT OTHERWISE MOST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST INTO ARIZONA WHICH WILL ALLOW WEAK UPPER WAVES TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION A
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER
THE FROM THE NORTH AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE MEXICAN BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST COMBINED THE DESERT HEAT LOW
OVER ARIZONA WILL MEANWHILE INDUCE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH TRAJECTORIES FAVORING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL PUSH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CORRESPONDING RISES
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO AROUND 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. MOISTURE
INCREASES WILL ALSO DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH MUCAPES AROUND
600 TO 1200 J/KG MOST LOCATIONS.

LIFTING FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH PLUS WEAK
UPPER WAVES AND OUTFLOWS WILL THEREFORE BRING MUCH MORE WIDESPREADSHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
SATURDAY. THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE PLUS SLOW STORM MOTION
VECTORS INDICATE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS SO FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MONITORED. INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT AT
LEAST SMALL HAIL WITH VERY ISOLATED STORMS.

BY SUNDAY A LEE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. IN RESPONSE SURFACE
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH USUALLY SUGGESTS INFLOW OF DRIER
AIR. HOWEVER INSPECTION OF REGIONAL WINDS INDICATES TRAJECTORIES
WILL EXTEND INTO BAJA MEANING THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN
HIGH ACROSS THE CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AROUND 1.2 TO
1.4 INCHES ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AIR MASS THUS REMAINS
UNSTABLE WITH THREAT OF CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING INTO THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/00Z-03/00Z...P6SM SKC-FEW080-100 ISOLD
-TSRA BKN060-080 AREA MTS THRU 03Z. AFT 18Z SCT080-100
SCT-BKN200-250 WITH ISOLD -TSRA BKN050-070 NORTH OF KALM-KDMN LINE.
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 12KTS FROM SE E OF RIO GRANDE AND W TO NW WEST
OF RIVER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING STARTING
THURSDAY AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
INTO THE WEEKEND AS STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 PERCENT LOWLANDS THURSDAY AND
THEN STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT STARTING FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75 102  75  97 /   0  10  30  30
SIERRA BLANCA           68  99  70  93 /   0  10  30  30
LAS CRUCES              71 100  72  95 /  10  20  30  30
ALAMOGORDO              71  98  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
CLOUDCROFT              59  76  57  70 /  10  50  50  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  97  70  93 /  10  20  30  40
SILVER CITY             65  90  65  85 /  20  50  40  60
DEMING                  71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
LORDSBURG               70  98  69  95 /  10  30  30  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      75 102  76  97 /   0  10  30  30
DELL CITY               69 100  70  94 /   0  10  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
LOMA LINDA              69  97  69  91 /   0  10  30  30
FABENS                  72 102  73  97 /   0  10  30  30
SANTA TERESA            73 100  74  96 /   0  20  30  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          71 100  72  95 /   0  20  30  30
JORNADA RANGE           71  99  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
HATCH                   71 100  70  96 /  10  20  30  40
COLUMBUS                71 100  71  95 /  10  20  30  40
OROGRANDE               72  99  73  94 /   0  20  30  30
MAYHILL                 60  84  59  76 /  10  50  40  60
MESCALERO               59  86  59  79 /  10  50  40  60
TIMBERON                59  85  58  79 /  10  50  40  60
WINSTON                 63  90  61  85 /  20  50  50  60
HILLSBORO               67  96  66  92 /  10  30  40  40
SPACEPORT               71  99  71  93 /  10  20  30  30
LAKE ROBERTS            61  90  60  84 /  20  50  50  60
HURLEY                  67  93  66  88 /  10  30  40  50
CLIFF                   64  96  65  92 /  20  50  50  50
MULE CREEK              65  95  67  91 /  20  40  40  50
FAYWOOD                 68  94  66  90 /  10  30  40  50
ANIMAS                  70 100  69  97 /  10  30  30  50
HACHITA                 70 100  69  97 /  10  20  30  40
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  97  66  95 /  10  30  40  40
CLOVERDALE              66  93  66  91 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.