Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 270943
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
343 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW NEARING SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE SOUTH WINDS WILL PUSH SOME
MOISTURE IN FROM THE EAST BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO EASTERN HUDSPETH
AND OTERO COUNTIES...WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A MUCH STRONGER PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL BEGIN SATURDAY. IN COMBINATION OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND A
DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HELP FUEL A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL INHIBIT
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW HAS NOW CUT THROUGH BASE OF EAST PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE AND
IS NOW JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA. HIGHER CLOUDS FROM THIS LOW
ARE NOW OVER ARIZONA AND SHOULD MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT 3-6 HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BUT THE HIGHER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS ARE OFF TO OUR EAST SO
ONLY SLIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS EVENING. GFS HAS BEEN THE MOST
BULLISH...THOUGH STILL LIMITED...ON THIS ADVECTION...AND EVEN THE
LATEST GFS RUN BARELY BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA
TONIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON POPS UNTIL THIS EVENING AND LIMIT THE AREA
TO FAR EASTERN HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. VERY MODEST CAPES...LI`S
AND SHEAR SHOULD NOT ALLOW MUCH STRENGTH TO ANY STORMS THAT FORM.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY MID DAY THURSDAY...THUS
ENDING ANY CHANCE OF RAIN AND USHERING IN BRIEF DRY PERIOD. EASTERN
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGE VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD LIMIT CLOUDS LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN RATHER RARE THIS
MONTH.

SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITION TO STORMY AND UNSETTLED PERIOD. AT
THE SURFACE A RATHER STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...LIKELY MAKING THE ARIZONA BORDER BY EVENING.
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
SIGNIFICANTLY. MUCAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH LI`S OF -2 TO -3. STRONG SHEAR WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE PW`S APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED 1 INCH IN THIS SAME AREA. POPS LOOK GOOD FOR AREAS EAST OF EL
PASO IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO ALL AREAS IN THE EVENING. EXPECT A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY THOUGH UPPER RIDGE
REACHES AREA AND COULD PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL CAPPING AND INHIBIT
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY.

UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE SETTLED IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE BOTH DAYS BUT RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CAPPING TO KEEP
STORMS MOSTLY ISOLATED AND MOSTLY OROGRAPHICALLY INITIATED.

LONGER RANGE...BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME HINTS OF TROPICAL STORM JUST
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CONTRIBUTING SOME MOISTURE UP TO THE CWA NEXT
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL EARLY...ESPECIALLY FOR A TROPICAL
SYSTEM...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP AFTER 00Z BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO EAST OF A LINE FROM
CORNUDAS TO TIMBERON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF THE FIRE ZONES SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WARM INTO SATURDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER ZONES 113 AND 56.
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY AS BACK DOOR
FRONT MOVES WEST ACROSS ALL THE FIRE ZONES BY EVENING. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND THEN
TO ALL AREAS IN THE EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/LOCAL FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DECREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 93  64  93  63  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           91  58  91  57  91 /  10  20   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              91  55  92  55  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              92  58  92  57  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              70  44  71  42  73 /  10  20   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   89  56  91  57  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             82  50  83  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  91  51  92  52  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               90  50  90  53  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      91  63  93  63  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               92  58  91  57  93 /  10  20   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            95  61  93  59  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              87  60  88  58  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  94  60  93  59  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            92  59  93  57  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          91  60  91  59  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           91  54  92  54  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   91  54  92  55  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                89  57  91  57  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               91  60  92  60  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 78  50  79  48  81 /  10  20   0   0   0
MESCALERO               79  47  80  45  82 /  10  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                78  48  79  47  80 /  10  20   0   0   0
WINSTON                 80  47  83  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               88  52  90  53  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               91  53  92  53  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            81  46  83  45  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  83  48  85  50  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   88  39  89  41  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              85  37  87  38  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 85  51  87  52  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  89  52  91  53  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 91  51  92  51  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          90  50  91  51  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              85  50  86  51  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER







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