Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 010913
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY.
IN ADDITION THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH SNOW EVEN POSSIBLE OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION EVOLVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES THIS MORNING. AN UNUSUALLY BROAD/LARGE UPPER TROUGH NOW
COVERS THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS. THE ONE OF MOST INTEREST FOR
OUR AREA WAS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALOFT LOCATED OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS AND
ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY PROBABLY ADVANCING AS FAR WEST AS DEMING BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REACHING THE ARIZONA BORDER EARLY THIS
EVENING.

EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT COOL AIR ADVECTION
AND CAUSE TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
EAST OF DEMING TODAY AND AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS
ON MONDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT BOTH AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LIMITED BY CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES.
HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL PVA FIELDS INDICATE DYNAMIC LIFTING ALOFT
WILL BE RATHER STRONG OVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVER FRONT. DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT WILL ALSO CAUSE AIR MASS TO
BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THESE FACTORS
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY ISOLATED LOWLAND SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ENHANCE LIFT. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER
COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALLS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
MAINLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. LATEST DATA/INFO SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS UP
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH CLOUDCROFT POSSIBLY
GETTING OVER AN INCH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING OVER LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR VERY
ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME BUT MOST
OF THE CWA WILL STAY DRY.

LONGER RANGE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE REMAINED RATHER CONSISTENT AND IN
RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT IN MOVING AN UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR MAY UPPER
LOW INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
EAST WILL BRING A FEW AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS. SNOW AND FOG WILL ALSO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY FROM 10 TO 20 KT MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ALONG
WESTERN FACING SLOPES. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING COOLER
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE BORDERLAND BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH SNOW EVEN POSSIBLE OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  44  71  52 /  10   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  43  66  46 /  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              69  44  69  48 /  20   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              66  42  68  46 /  30  10   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              41  31  47  35 /  50  20   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  44  67  47 /  30  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             61  38  65  44 /  40  20   0   0
DEMING                  70  44  71  49 /  20   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               68  42  72  49 /  10   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  47  70  53 /  10   0   0   0
DELL CITY               64  40  65  43 /  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            73  46  70  49 /  10   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              66  41  64  47 /  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  74  44  71  50 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            72  41  70  50 /  10   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  46  68  50 /  20   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           68  37  69  44 /  20   0   0   0
HATCH                   70  39  72  46 /  20   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                72  44  73  50 /  10   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               66  43  67  50 /  20   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 42  29  52  36 /  50  20   0   0
MESCALERO               50  30  56  37 /  50  20   0   0
TIMBERON                49  34  54  38 /  40  20   0   0
WINSTON                 55  32  61  38 /  40  20   0   0
HILLSBORO               65  38  68  45 /  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               67  41  69  46 /  20  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            62  31  65  37 /  40  20   0   0
HURLEY                  62  37  65  44 /  30  10   0   0
CLIFF                   64  33  71  41 /  40  20   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  32  70  40 /  30  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 64  38  68  44 /  30  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  45  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 69  44  73  49 /  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  42  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              65  43  74  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH


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