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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221031
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
431 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE GULF STATES IS PRODUCING A MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH IS
BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE UP OVER THE BORDERLAND THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT TODAY. THE UPPER LOW AND
UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY TAPER OFF THE SHOWERS FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EXPECT JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
SOME MOISTURE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST AND DRIER FOR MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL
TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT THEN WARM BACK TO NORMAL BY
SUNDAY INTO THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SW ARIZONA AND MAXIMIZING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. TPW PRODUCT
SHOWS PW`S AS HIGH AS 1.5" MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS
FINALLY STARTED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE LAST NIGHT AND ARE
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD. MOST UNSTABLE AREA SEEMS TO BE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM. MOST
OF THEM DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE CWA BUT A FEW LINGER ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DEEP CLOUDINESS WILL OBVIOUSLY HINDER WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY BUT PROG SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS OF 78-82
WHICH I THINK MOST PLACES CAN REACH...SO EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE SHOWERS. UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH
LATER TODAY WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING N-S OVER THE ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM ABOUT EL PASO NORTHWARD
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. TROUGH COULD INTENSIFY SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF IT AND WILL
BEGIN DRYING OUT BEHIND IT. SHOWERS SHOULD END IN THE WEST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND IN THE EAST BY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ACTIVE. THE EAST REMAINS UNSTABLE BEHIND THE
TROUGH AND PW`S STILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE AN INCH SO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS/RAIN
BUT BEGIN WARMING UP SATURDAY AS THE BORDERLAND SHEDS IT`S CLOUD
COVER.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE AS MAIN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF STATES RIDGES OUT WESTWARD
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA. MODELS SHOW MODEST AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTING OVER THE AREA (ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OVER THE CWA) SO WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR ALL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE BREAKS OFF HIGH CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL TURN OUR UPPER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AND KEEP MOST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. GFS STILL
SHOWS AIRMASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT PW`S ONLY AROUND 1" AND DEW POINTS
BACK TO 40S TO 50. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND LIMITED
MOSTLY TO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/12Z-23/12Z...
BKN-OVC150 LAYERS 300. SCATTERED -SHRA OVC100 WITH EMBEDDED 3-5SM
TSRA BKN090CB TOPS 420. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY EAST OF DEMING. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW OVER SW ARIZONA CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE UP OVER THE
FIRE ZONES IN MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AND
SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL ZONES THROUGH THIS MORNING. SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW AND
TROUGH BEGIN MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO. DRYING WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR...MAY LIMIT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COOL TODAY WITH THE RAIN BUT THEN WARM
BACK TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RH`S TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM 40-50% LOWLANDS AND FALL TO 30-35% THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RH`S FOR THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE
FROM 45-55% TODAY AND FALL TO 35-45% THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAINES
INDICES VERY LOW (2 OR 3) TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 80  71  89  72  92 /  70  40  20   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           75  69  87  68  89 /  50  50  30  10  10
LAS CRUCES              78  68  87  67  91 /  70  40  20   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              77  67  90  66  87 /  80  50  20   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              61  50  68  48  71 /  90  60  30  10  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   76  67  83  66  89 /  60  30  10   0  10
SILVER CITY             75  59  81  58  83 /  40  20   0   0  10
DEMING                  79  67  86  66  91 /  40  30  10   0  10
LORDSBURG               79  66  85  65  90 /  30  20   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      79  71  88  71  92 /  70  40  20   0  10
DELL CITY               80  67  89  69  93 /  60  50  30  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            78  70  92  71  94 /  60  50  30  10  10
LOMA LINDA              78  67  84  67  87 /  70  50  30  10  10
FABENS                  79  68  91  69  92 /  70  40  30   0  10
SANTA TERESA            79  70  88  68  91 /  70  40  20   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          79  69  87  68  91 /  60  50  20   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           77  68  86  67  91 /  60  40  20   0  10
HATCH                   78  67  87  66  91 /  60  40  10   0  10
COLUMBUS                78  69  87  68  92 /  50  30  10   0  10
OROGRANDE               78  69  85  68  88 /  70  50  20   0  10
MAYHILL                 65  55  80  54  80 /  80  60  30  10  30
MESCALERO               68  55  79  54  79 /  80  50  20  10  30
TIMBERON                69  56  76  55  78 /  90  50  30  10  30
WINSTON                 71  53  81  53  83 /  50  20  10   0  30
HILLSBORO               76  62  84  62  88 /  50  30  10   0  10
SPACEPORT               76  67  84  66  88 /  60  40  10   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            74  55  80  58  84 /  40  20  10   0  30
HURLEY                  76  61  82  61  84 /  40  20   0   0  10
CLIFF                   78  54  82  53  85 /  30  20   0   0  10
MULE CREEK              77  50  79  51  83 /  40  20   0   0  10
FAYWOOD                 76  61  84  61  90 /  40  20  10   0  10
ANIMAS                  77  66  85  65  89 /  30  20   0   0  10
HACHITA                 79  66  86  65  90 /  30  20  10   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          75  64  85  63  89 /  40  20  10   0  10
CLOVERDALE              77  63  82  63  84 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER







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