Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 302110
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
310 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
We have just enough moisture and just enough heating to help kick
off some showers and isolated thunderstorms early this evening.
For Tuesday we will be dry but continued warm...then on Wednesday
and Thursday moist air and rain chances return to the area. For
the end of the week we will see slightly below normal temperatures
with just a slight chance for thunderstorms. Our slight chance for
rain will continue into the weekend where we will see partly
cloudy skies with near normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As we finish out May and move into June it will be harder and
harder to keep the moisture out. Case and point is today. An
outflow boundary from thunderstorms well to our east was able to
sweep a fair amount of moisture into the region today. This
moisture influx has been able to fuel scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the region today. On Tuesday as the
westerly winds strengthen out ahead of an approaching upper level
storm system we will see the more moist air retreat west of the
mountains. So Tuesday will see much lower coverage of
thunderstorms.

On Wednesday things could get interesting. We will see another
east push that will allow lots of moisture into the region while
at the same time the upper level storm system will be tracking
across the area. The combination of those two things will help a
few storms become strong to severe with strong winds and large
hail being the main threats.

On Thursday and Friday we will be on the back side of the upper
trough. We will be a little cooler with temperatures 3 to 5
degrees below normal but we will still have enough moisture to
give us a few isolated thunderstorms. For the weekend we will see
another east push which will allow moisture into the region and which
will fuel a slight chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z-01/12Z.
Mostly VFR conds (SCT-bkn070-100 SCT-bkn250) and W to SW winds
between 10 to 20 kts will occur through the area. Enough moisture
and instability exists up to about 06Z to give isolated to scattered
thunderstorms (BKN060CB 4SM -TSRA BLDU Land Wind VRB30G40KT). AFT
06Z: SCT080 SCT140 SCT200 WINDS GNLY SW 8G15KTS. iSOLD CLD
BLDUPS/TSTM OVER HIGHEST TERRAIN AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As an upper level trough slowly approaches our area winds by
Wednesday will become more easterly and import even  more moisture.
Meanwhile moisture and instability has increased for MOnday as a
upper level disturbance moves across this afternoon and evening
setting of some thunderstorm activity. The risk for dry lightning
and strong winds near storms exists Monday. Tuesday should see much
less activity with only isold cells over the highest terrain. Then
Wednesday the winds should shift to the east and advect much more
moisture into the area giving a Good chance for scattered rain
showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could even approach strong
limits. This activity may continue into early Friday. Enough
residual moisture may remain to give a few isolated showers and
storms around the area (primarily the mountains) for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  90  61  86 /  10   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           62  88  57  81 /  10   0  10  30
Las Cruces              57  88  54  84 /  10   0   0  20
Alamogordo              59  89  56  82 /  10   0  10  30
Cloudcroft              38  68  35  61 /  10   0  10  60
Truth or Consequences   58  87  54  81 /  10   0   0  30
Silver City             50  81  45  78 /   0  10  10  20
Deming                  55  89  51  85 /  10   0   0  20
Lordsburg               52  88  52  86 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      67  89  61  86 /  10   0   0  20
Dell City               58  90  53  81 /  10   0  10  40
Fort Hancock            64  91  59  86 /  10   0  10  20
Loma Linda              59  84  54  80 /  10   0   0  40
Fabens                  63  91  57  86 /  10   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            61  89  57  85 /  10   0   0  20
White Sands HQ          60  88  60  83 /  10   0   0  20
Jornada Range           49  88  48  83 /  10   0   0  20
Hatch                   56  90  51  86 /  10   0   0  20
Columbus                59  88  56  86 /  10   0   0  10
Orogrande               60  89  56  83 /  10   0   0  30
Mayhill                 46  78  42  70 /  10   0  10  60
Mescalero               43  77  40  68 /  10   0  10  50
Timberon                41  74  39  70 /  10   0  10  50
Winston                 44  81  40  75 /  10   0   0  30
Hillsboro               53  85  49  81 /  10   0   0  30
Spaceport               49  87  47  82 /  10   0   0  20
Lake Roberts            40  85  36  80 /  10  10  10  30
Hurley                  51  83  45  80 /  10   0   0  20
Cliff                   40  87  41  85 /   0   0   0  20
Mule Creek              38  85  38  83 /   0   0   0  20
Faywood                 50  84  47  81 /  10  10   0  20
Animas                  53  87  52  86 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                 54  88  53  86 /   0   0   0  10
Antelope Wells          54  85  52  85 /   0   0   0  10
Cloverdale              50  80  47  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Novlan



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