Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282138
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
338 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER OKLAHOMA WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
PERSIST...ALLOWING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. BY
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL DIMINISH...BUT
NOT END...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. JUST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND THE BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS OR PREVIOUS THINKING. UPPER HIGH IS
NOW CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS WITH MOISTURE PLUME...SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE BUT STILL INTACT...OVER ALL OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
A MINOR EASTERLY WAVE LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG BEND
AND MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR OUR EASTERN CWA. HEAVY RAINS
AND SOME FLOODING LOOK LIKELY TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ALL HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERING OPINIONS ON
WHERE. NAM SUITE ALL SHOWING SURFACE CONVERGENCE TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN CWA AND THEN OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS A
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT BATTLES THE WESTERLY FLOW OUT WEST. MEANWHILE
THE GFS SHOWS SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PW`S...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...MUCAPES...SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALL SHOW GOOD HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH WED NIGHT.

THE UPPER HIGH BEGINS MOVING WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH BEGINS
NUDGING INTO NEW MEXICO AND LIKELY STABILIZING MOST OF THE
EASTERN CWA OUT...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF AFTERNOON CHANCES OVER THE SAC
MTNS. BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND THE HIGH CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD
DRIFT TO OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS...THOUGH DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ALOFT FROM
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW MUCH HIGHER COVERAGE.

&&

NZUS04 KEPZ 281818
WRK001

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z.
P6SM SCT080-100 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU PD WITH SCT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-
060 THRU 06Z AND AFT 18Z...ISOLD 06Z TO 18Z. WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS. W TO NW WINDS AOB 12KTS BECOMING MORE E
TO SE AFT 12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL HELP TO DROP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO AROUND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE LOWLANDS WITH
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SOME MOISTURE MAY RETURN TO THE LOWLANDS GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 75  97  73  96 /  30  20  40  10
SIERRA BLANCA           71  94  68  94 /  20  10  20   0
LAS CRUCES              69  96  67  95 /  30  30  40  10
ALAMOGORDO              69  95  66  95 /  30  30  30  10
CLOUDCROFT              49  71  48  72 /  50  60  40  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  93  67  93 /  30  40  50  20
SILVER CITY             64  87  62  85 /  30  50  50  40
DEMING                  71  95  68  95 /  30  40  40  20
LORDSBURG               69  95  67  94 /  30  40  50  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      73  97  72  96 /  30  20  40  10
DELL CITY               72  97  69  95 /  20  10  20  10
FORT HANCOCK            74  97  72  96 /  30  10  30   0
LOMA LINDA              69  94  68  94 /  30  20  20   0
FABENS                  72  97  72  97 /  30  20  30   0
SANTA TERESA            72  97  70  96 /  30  20  40  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  95  68  95 /  30  30  40  10
JORNADA RANGE           69  95  66  94 /  30  30  40  10
HATCH                   69  96  66  95 /  30  30  40  10
COLUMBUS                71  94  69  95 /  30  30  40  10
OROGRANDE               71  96  69  96 /  30  20  30  10
MAYHILL                 56  80  53  79 /  40  60  30  20
MESCALERO               55  81  53  81 /  40  60  40  30
TIMBERON                56  80  54  80 /  40  60  30  20
WINSTON                 59  85  58  84 /  40  60  70  60
HILLSBORO               65  93  63  93 /  30  40  50  20
SPACEPORT               69  94  66  93 /  30  40  40  10
LAKE ROBERTS            58  86  56  84 /  40  60  70  60
HURLEY                  64  90  63  89 /  30  40  50  30
CLIFF                   60  92  58  89 /  30  50  60  50
MULE CREEK              57  93  58  91 /  30  50  50  50
FAYWOOD                 65  91  63  90 /  30  40  50  20
ANIMAS                  69  94  67  93 /  30  40  50  30
HACHITA                 69  94  67  92 /  30  40  50  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  90  65  89 /  40  40  50  20
CLOVERDALE              65  89  64  90 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ



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