Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 242231
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
331 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The week ahead appears to be mostly seasonable temperature wise,
but with a couple of fast moving storms off the Pacific, several
of the days will be breezy. One storm will move in Sunday,
bringing gusty winds and a slight chance of mountain showers.
Another quick hitting storm will pass through Tuesday, bringing
more winds and a chance of mountain showers. Wednesday into the
weekend, a stretch of warmer, dry weather begins.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A rather active, but low impact, weather pattern is in store over
the next week. The large scale pattern shows a long wave trough
over most of the western U.S. Several small short waves will
rotate through the trough, eventually affecting the CWA. In the
short term, west flow at the base of the long wave trough will
keep us in a quiet period tonight and tomorrow, with temperatures
running near normal.

A small storm currently organizing off the Pacific Northwest will
rapidly drop down to Arizona Sunday, bringing some clouds and wind
to the area. Meager moisture supply and weak dynamics should limit
precip chances to the mountains Sunday afternoon and evening.
Expect winds to remain in windy category with lowland blowing
dust. Speed of storm and lack of moisture should preclude any
significant mountain snow, but 1 to 2 inches possible above 7500
feet. Monday looks like a tweener day with above normal
temperatures and some sun.

Next storm moves in Tuesday, as another short wave from the Pac
Northwest combines with an impulse off the eastern Pacific to form
a fast moving storm. This system has more of an oceanic origin,
and combined with a bit better dynamics should be good for at
least mountains showers. For now left POPs out of the lowlands,
until a bit better consensus between the models. Again snow levels
look to remain above 7500 feet, but could see the mountain zones,
especially the Gila zones, approach snow advisory criteria.

After this system moves east of the area Tuesday evening, the rest
of the forecast period looks quiet. Zonal flow should keep weather
out of the area and allow temperatures to climb back above normal.
Both GFS/ECMWF cut off weak low near the Baja Thursday. GFS keeps
flow and moisture perilously close to the southern CWA Friday,
though ECMWF does not. Plenty of time to resolve this feature
though.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z...

VFR conditions with SKC-FEW250 thru prd. Winds generally 27020G25KT
thru 06Z then wind generally NW AOB 15KTS with stronger gusts near
area mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag warning continues through 5pm MST this evening for fire
weather zones 055, 056 and 112. Tomorrow all zones get a quick break
from critical fire weather conditions as winds lessen. A very dry air
mass will still be in place tomorrow keeping min RHs in the low and
mid to double digits. Critical Fire Weather conditions return to
portions of the region Sunday as the area is hit with another day of
very windy and dry weather. This will result in both winds and min
RH`s coming close to Red Flag conditions...a Fire Weather Watch or
even a Red Flag Warning might be needed but will leave that to
tomorrow mornings forecaster to make the final call. The start of
next week brings more winds with min RH`s above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 36  65  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           35  62  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              30  63  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              31  60  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              17  43  26  38 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   30  62  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             29  57  36  52 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                  26  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               26  63  33  60 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro      36  64  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               27  66  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            32  69  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              36  59  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  29  66  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            31  64  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          35  61  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           26  62  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   29  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                31  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               33  61  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 24  57  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               22  53  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                24  50  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 23  57  31  53 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               27  61  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               27  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            19  57  27  50 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                  25  59  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   19  59  33  54 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek              22  57  32  52 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                 27  60  34  57 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                  26  66  34  64 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                 24  67  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          27  66  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              34  62  39  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ112.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

Hefner/Pazos


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