Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222000
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
WARMER DRIER WEATHER WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE AND VERY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION IN PROGRESS.
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST EL PASO AND MORE RAINFALL IS ON THE WAY. EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS PUMPING VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VERY HIGH AT 1.6 INCHES AND CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. EAST TO WEST ALIGNED VORTICITY AXIS IS MEANWHILE APPROACHING
THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH PROVIDING EFFECTIVE DYNAMIC LIFT. THUS
FURTHER DEEP AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECASTED. IN FACT
STRONGEST ACTIVITY APPEARS ALIGNED ALONG THE VORT AXIS AND WAS
APPROACHING THE BORDER AREAS INCLUDING THE EL PASO METRO. WIND
FIELDS FAVOR SLOW MOVING OR BACK BUILDING CELLS AND DEEP MOISTURE
PLUS WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT INDICATE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING
CLOUDS. THUS RISK OF FLOODING WILL PERSIST.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY RIDGE ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY FROM UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER ARIZONA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A DRIER SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL REMAIN AROUND AN INCH WITH THE AIR MASS AT LEAST WEAKLY
UNSTABLE SO EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS LOWLANDS WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

OVER THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CWA
FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ATTENDANT LIFT
MAY INITIALLY GENERATE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION SUNDAY BUT
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY AGAIN BRING DRIER WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/00Z - 24/00Z...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CIGS FEW-SCT010-020 SCT-BKN020-040
BKN-OVC050-090 WITH VSBY OCNLY BLO 1SM IN TSRA. TSTMS DIMINISHING
AFTR MIDNIGHT THEN CIGS GNRLY FEW-SCT015-030 SCT-BKN040-080 WITH
VSBY P6SM. ISOLD LOWLAND AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN TSTMS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT LOW AND MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO PUSH VERY
MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN...WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER AREA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VERY LOW (2 OR 3)
HAINES INDICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 66  82  65  86  64 /  60  20  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           60  78  58  82  57 /  50  20  10   0   0
LAS CRUCES              63  80  63  84  62 /  60  20  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              63  83  62  87  61 /  60  20  10   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              48  63  47  64  45 /  70  30  20  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  81  61  82  62 /  60  20  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             59  79  58  82  59 /  60  20  20  10  10
DEMING                  63  83  62  85  61 /  60  20  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               64  85  63  87  62 /  50  20  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      66  83  65  86  65 /  60  20  10   0   0
DELL CITY               62  80  61  81  58 /  50  20  10   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            66  84  63  86  62 /  60  20  10   0   0
LOMA LINDA              61  77  60  78  58 /  60  20  10   0   0
FABENS                  64  86  61  86  62 /  60  20  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            65  83  64  85  63 /  60  20  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          63  81  62  82  61 /  60  20  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           61  82  59  85  58 /  60  20  10   0   0
HATCH                   62  81  60  82  60 /  60  20  10   0   0
COLUMBUS                64  82  63  84  62 /  60  20  10   0   0
OROGRANDE               64  81  63  82  61 /  60  20  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 53  71  52  70  50 /  70  30  20  20  10
MESCALERO               53  74  52  74  51 /  70  30  20  20  10
TIMBERON                53  71  53  70  51 /  70  30  20  20  10
WINSTON                 54  74  53  74  52 /  70  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               58  77  57  76  56 /  60  20  10   0   0
SPACEPORT               61  83  61  81  59 /  60  20  10   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  79  53  81  54 /  70  30  20  10  10
HURLEY                  62  79  59  82  60 /  60  20  20   0   0
CLIFF                   58  84  57  85  57 /  50  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              53  82  52  82  53 /  50  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 61  77  58  78  59 /  60  20  10   0   0
ANIMAS                  64  87  63  89  63 /  50  20  10   0   0
HACHITA                 62  83  60  83  60 /  50  20  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          61  85  60  86  59 /  50  20  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              61  83  60  85  59 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH/21 PARK




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