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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191013
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
313 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY`S STORM SYSTEM EXITED THE REGION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
IN IT`S WAKE IS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH A COOL AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BORDERLAND FOR TODAY. EXPECT SEASONALLY
COOL HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS. SATURDAY REMAINS COOL WITH A PASSING UPPER WAVE THAT WILL
PASS DRY BUT PROVIDE A FEW MORE CLOUDS. CLEARING AND WARMING FOR
SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST COAST.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AS STORMS STAY WELL NORTH SUNDAY
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. SPEAKING OF CHRISTMAS...ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH TO BRING ABOUT A WINDY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HINT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING IN CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRY
AND MILD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE YESTERDAY`S UPPER-
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ALREADY EAST OF THE CWFA...WITH THE DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE REGION. ENHANCED IR
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL DISIPATING
CLOUD COVER. REGIONAL COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE PCPN AREAS NOW
OVER W TX AND OUT OF THE CWFA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WE WILL SEE SOME FLAT FAIR WEATHER
CU...BUT GENERALLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. THE DEEP NW FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL AND ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUS L50S
LOWLANDS...AND 30S MTNS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE N AND NE
WITH RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

SATURDAY THE RIDGE FLATTENS AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL MIX SHINSHINE WITH AN INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO REBOUND...BUT NOT MUCH AS WINDS
STILL SHOW SOME NORTHERLY FETCH. MAX TEMPS UP 3-5 DEGREES AND
RIGHT AT THE SEASONAL NORMALS. SUNDAY THE TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM
AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE A BIT ON THE BACK SIDE OF SATURDAY`S
WAVE. CONTINUED DRY AS A STRENGTHENING WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND SHOVES THE STORM TRACK N AND E
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF CHRISTMAS WEEK WE WILL STAY UNDER THE
DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WEST COAST HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS MEANS WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY HIGHS GENERALLY
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A SLIGHT DIP EXPECTED TUESDAY BEHIND A
RELATIVELY WEAK COOL FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

CHRISTMAS DAY WE LOOK TO WELCOME THE ARRIVAL OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AS YET ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. CHRISTMAS WILL BE DRY AS THE STORM ARRIVES TOO LATE AND
POSSIBLY TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE RESULT...WITH TEMPRATURES RESPONDING BY SPIKING TO CLOSE TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG IN CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. THE ECMWF MODEL INDICATES PCPN MOVING OVER THE GILA
OVERNIGHT BUT THE OTHER MODELS KEEP IT DRY. FOR SO WE KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE MODEL EVOLUTION ON
THIS POST-CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/12Z- 20/12Z...
EXITING STORM THIS AM WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE REGION
TODAY. A BIT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A THIN FAIR
WEATHER CU FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS TDY ALL TERMS. SKC-SCT050 WITH
LT N TO NW WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LATEST STORM SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAINING COOL AND SEASONAL TODAY AND SATURDAY...THEN A WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS SUNDAY AND MORESO FOR MONDAY AND MOST
OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25
PERCENT GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. BREEZY TO WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CHRISTMAS DAY (THU) AS A DRY SHORT WAVE PASSES. MODELS
HIT THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DROP IN WITH THIS SYSTEM
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...BUT FOR NOW THAT IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY. THUS
GENERALLY DRY AND MILD FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 53  30  56  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           53  30  56  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              53  27  55  30  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              52  26  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  18  35  23  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   50  27  51  30  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             44  27  47  30  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  52  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  25  53  29  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      53  33  54  36  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  26  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            54  29  58  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              50  31  49  34  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  53  28  57  30  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            53  26  55  29  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  30  54  34  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           52  21  53  23  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   53  25  54  28  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                53  28  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               52  27  53  31  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  24  45  29  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               42  20  43  25  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  23  43  26  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 42  23  46  27  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  27  49  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               51  23  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            43  23  47  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  46  25  49  29  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   50  21  53  25  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              46  18  49  21  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 46  28  48  31  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  53  25  56  30  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 53  22  55  26  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          54  23  56  26  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              50  26  55  29  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD





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