639
FXUS64 KEPZ 091127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
527 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Deep and dry westerly flow continues across the Borderland,
keeping the region warm, very dry, and marginally breezy today.
Today`s weather will be a lot like Wednesday`s conditions, but
with somewhat lighter winds. Friday we see a push of air from the
Plains to shift winds east and bring in some Gulf moisture. Areas
from the Rio Grande eastward will see some added clouds, and
possibly a late day shower or thunderstorm. Friday night will
bring increased easterly winds as the boundary pushes in
overnight. Saturday will start with some moisture in place, with
slight precipitation chances over eastern areas, but the moisture
will begin to flush out to the east in the afternoon. The rest of
the weekend, and most of next week, will again be warm, dry, and
breezy.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

One more day of a largely unchanging large-scale pattern, that
will keep our weather conditions very similar to previous days.
This means warm temperatures, very dry conditions, and somewhat
breezy afternoon conditions. We will see less wind today, than
our previous two days due to a much less favorable surface
gradient. High pressure is easing S and W down the Plains and
banking up against our central NM mountains. This positions the
surface pressure trough across our area, and displaces the
gradient that has helped produce the stronger winds of late.
Otherwise very little chance in the other elements.

Late tonight, through Friday, we will see sfc high pressure, over
the Plains, push a boundary into our eastern, and possibly
central zones, with east winds and some advection of Gulf moisture
into those areas. This is added by an orphaned upper low over
NV/UT. Initially the push is shallow for Friday, with the moisture
rich at the surface, but limited in depth, so mixout and shallow
moisture will significantly reduce shower or storm chances. Just
our far eastern zones have much of a chance. But for the areas
east of the Rio, we will see higher dewpoints and thus increased
RH, (along with the lighter winds) helping to ease wildfire
concerns. Friday night into Saturday morning the east push, gets
an added push, and pushes harder and farther west across our
region. Models are in good agreement to seeing these easterlies
and moisture get to the Continental Divide by SAT morning. They
also suggest breezy and gusty E and SE winds, with gusts 40+ mph
over ridges and west slopes of the N-S ridges and sky islands over
our E and S central zones.

We should see some showers or a few storms Saturday, but it could
also be a rush between heating to instability, and shoving the
moisture back east, as westerlies mix down through the midday and
afternoon on Saturday. The GFS/EC models flush moisture and dry
out the area rapidly. The NAM is slower, with better pcpn/storm
chances.

Saturday night into Sunday, the upper low that was to our NW will
eject across the rockies, bring our region back under a more
concentrated W flow regime. This means a hard push of that
moisture back out of our region, and the return of very dry air.
Minor ridging will also work to warm our temperatures. The
atmosphere will dry back out, and afternoons will be marginally
breezy. This means fire weather concerns return.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Skies
generally SKC through the period. Winds favoring SW to W AOB 10kts
through 18Z...then 12-15kts with gusts 20-25kts through 03z. Aft
03Z winds slacken back to 05-10kts and shift to NW a bit. For KELP
winds will shift through N to E aft 09z tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

The large scale pattern remains generally the same, with deep and
dry west flow across the region, keeping temperatures warm and the
airmass quite dry. The change today will be lower wind speeds as
the surface pressure gradient relaxes due to advancing high
pressure over the Central and Southern Plains. We should still be
breezy through the afternoon, but speeds generally not high enough
to invoke another Red Flag Warning for today. Thus we will see
another warm, dry, and breezy day, with somewhat elevated fire
weather, but not critical fire weather conditions.

Friday we see some moisture move in over the eastern zones, with
the push of a backdoor front bringing Gulf moisture on east and
southeast winds. For the SACs and surrounding lowlands, this means
some relief with the dry conditions with higher dewpoints and thus
RH. There could also be isolated showers or thunderstorms. Friday
night through Saturday morning, we will see a stronger east push
of this moisture, that will push further west; likely to the
Continental Divide. This will provide a short term bump in RH
recovery for SAT morning, and even a slight increase for SAT, but
the moisture will be shallow and quick to jump back east. Thus
most of the region will have another dry day Saturday, but some
locations over the central and eastern zones could see a stray
shower or thunderstorm.

Sunday into next week, we see a return and continuation of the
deep and dry westerly flow pattern. Temperatures will slowly creep
upward with mild mornings, and afternoons 3-5 degrees warmer than
normal. RH will remain quite low. Afternoons will be somewhat
breezy, and possibly marginally windy some days, so fire weather
concerns will elevated again for next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  87  59  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            82  55  79  57 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces               84  52  86  57 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               82  50  82  54 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft               59  37  60  41 /   0   0  10  30
Truth or Consequences    82  50  82  53 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              72  45  77  48 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                   82  47  86  51 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg                80  47  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       84  57  85  60 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                86  50  81  55 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock             89  53  88  57 /   0   0   0  20
Loma Linda               78  53  78  55 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                   87  55  88  59 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             82  50  84  57 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           83  58  84  62 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range            81  48  84  52 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    83  47  86  52 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 83  52  87  55 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                81  51  81  57 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                  72  41  68  43 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero                70  40  70  44 /   0   0  10  30
Timberon                 69  40  68  43 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                  72  41  76  45 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro                78  46  81  49 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                81  45  83  49 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             72  40  78  44 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                   76  41  79  45 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    79  45  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               73  45  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  75  45  79  48 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   82  47  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  82  48  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           82  48  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               77  48  80  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird