Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201944
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
144 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 2 DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. OTHERWISE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BRING WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO THE BORDERLAND THIS
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING RAOB SHOWED UNSEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OF .7
INCH ALONG WITH A 1100 J/KG CAPE. MEANWHILE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVED EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW BEHIND IT ADVECTING DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER A WEAKER SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING PROVIDING
WEAK LIFT. THUS OPPOSING ELEMENTS EXIST WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTION. FOR THIS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW A FEW STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH ISOLATED
STORMS PERSISTING OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING.

UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE FAVORING WARM DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER EASTERLY FLOW AT SURFACE SHOULD TRANSFER ADEQUATE MOISTURE
OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES AND THE HIGH MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY THE NEXT UPPER WAVE ADVANCES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FORMING OVER
WESTERN ARIZONA AND A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. CONSEQUENTLY THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL INDUCE SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MODEST INFLOW
OF MOISTURE. AIR MASS WILL BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH LOWLAND
CAPES MOSTLY BELOW 500 J/KG SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND HIGH MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE ROCKIES
GENERATING A STRONG LEE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. LOW
AND MID LEVELS GRADIENTS THEREFORE INCREASE WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ADVECTING WARM DRY AIR MASS. IN ADDITION DIURNAL
HEATING WILL SUPPORT MIXING HEIGHTS TO 600 MB BY LATE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. GRADIENTS RELAX
SOMEWHAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK LEE
TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL SUSTAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND AN ATTENDANT TRAILING LEE TROUGH ALONG THE NEW
MEXICO FRONT RANGE. THUS DRY WINDY WEATHER POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z...
UPR LO OVR NE NMEX SLOWLY PULLING OUT WITH SOME MINOR IMPULSES ON
ITS BACK SIDE MOVING TO THE SSE. ENUF RESIDUAL MSTR TO PRODUCE AN
ISOLD TSTM ESPLY NR MOUNTAINS DRIFTING SSE ONTO THE PLAINS TIL ARN
06Z. SCT050-100 SCT150 SCT200  ISOLD 5SM -TSRA BKN050 WIND VRB
30G40KT NR TSTM. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 8-13 KTS TIL 06Z THEN ENE
5-10KTS. CB TOPS TO 350. AFT 06Z GNLY FEW-SCT 080-120 SCT200-250.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW WILL CREATE
A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND CONTINUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY FOR YET ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS. A BRIEF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCURSION FROM THE EAST ON
TUESDAY WILL GIVE THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH HUDSPETH COUNTY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR FINALLY MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND PRODUCES A WINDY AND DUSTY AFTERNOON
PRODUCING RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 58  84  61  89  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA           52  81  50  87  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
LAS CRUCES              53  81  53  87  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              53  81  53  84  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              37  58  38  63  40 /  10  30   0  10  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  80  55  85  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             47  76  48  80  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  48  81  50  88  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  80  51  87  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      59  82  62  87  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
DELL CITY               46  79  47  83  46 /   0  10   0  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            57  87  57  92  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
LOMA LINDA              51  77  52  81  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
FABENS                  54  83  55  89  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
SANTA TERESA            55  82  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          62  80  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
JORNADA RANGE           47  82  46  86  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
HATCH                   51  81  49  87  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                55  80  57  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               53  84  54  87  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
MAYHILL                 42  66  42  71  44 /  10  30   0  20  20
MESCALERO               36  69  37  73  40 /  10  30   0  10  20
TIMBERON                37  67  38  71  40 /   0  20   0  10  20
WINSTON                 45  75  46  79  42 /   0  10   0   0  10
HILLSBORO               53  78  56  82  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               49  79  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            40  74  44  78  42 /  10  20   0   0  10
HURLEY                  47  77  49  81  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   40  80  40  85  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              36  79  37  83  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 49  76  51  80  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  53  82  52  88  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 50  81  50  87  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          52  82  55  90  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              48  80  49  85  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN






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