Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 162131
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
331 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Our monsoon break continues through at least Thursday with dry
conditions and temperatures around 5 degrees above average. On
Saturday the moisture and rain chances return with a good chance
for rain Sunday and Monday. Right now, unfortunately, Monday,
eclipse day, is looking partly to mostly cloudy. Our rain chances
will continue through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our monsoon break is in full force as dry westerly winds have swept
the moisture to our east, so get out and walk the dog or enjoy
the stars or help things dry out tonight. The dry air will be
sticking around through at least Thursday. With the drier air in
place and plenty of sun we will see our afternoon high
temperatures running around 5 degrees above average.


By Friday the upper level ridge to our east will begin to try and
re-establish itself centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The
flow around the high will help to begin to pull moisture back into
the region from the south. At first only the far eastern zones
will have enough moisture to give us some rain chances, but the
southerly flow will continue on Saturday and most of the area will
see a chance for thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Looking west on Saturday we will see an upper level trough over
southern California. The combination of the circulations around
the high to our east and the low to our west will create the
atmospheric equivalent of the squeegee effect. This will allow
abundant and deep moisture to move into the region on Sunday and
into Monday. We will see very efficient rain making thunderstorms
on Sunday and again on Monday, so we will see an increased threat
of flash flooding both days. Right now it is not looking the best
for anyone who wanted to get a glance at the partial eclipse on
Monday that will be occurring. Usually 11 am to 1 pm is a pretty
good time to see the sun in the lowlands during the summer, but
right now the GFS and ECMWF are looking pretty cloudy most of the
day. By Tuesday the deeper moisture will back off a bit so the
heavy rain threat will relax somewhat as well, but we will still
see a good chance for rain. Looking beyond the forecast the GFS
continues a slow drying trend, but the ECMWF brings more tropical
moisture and even a tropical low up out of the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of next week continuing our heavy rain threat. For now
I`ll lean more toward the slightly drier GFS solution.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 17/00Z-18/00Z...
VFR with mostly CLR-SCT100 SCT140 SCT250 conditions and surface
winds around 5 to 15 kt. ISOLD CB E FACE OF SACS TIL 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A return of westerly winds will bring seasonably warm mostly dry
weather to southern New Mexico and west Texas today through Friday.
However, Southerly winds will push moisture back into the region
this weekend into next week and this will generate increasing shower
and thunderstorm activity with possible heavy rains and flooding.
Min RH Wednesday and Thursday afternoon will run around 15% to 25%
all areas except 10% higher in the Sacramento Mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  97  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           68  95  70  92 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces              63  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              65  93  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              50  74  52  72 /   0   0   0  20
Truth or Consequences   64  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             57  88  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  60  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               62  92  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      67  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               66  96  72  95 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock            71  97  74  96 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda              65  92  71  89 /   0   0   0  10
Fabens                  70  97  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            67  96  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          67  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           63  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   62  95  67  96 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                62  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               67  95  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 56  85  59  83 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero               56  85  59  83 /   0   0   0  20
Timberon                54  83  59  81 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                 54  88  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               61  93  66  91 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               65  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            53  88  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  56  91  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   58  91  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              59  89  63  90 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 56  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  60  92  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 61  92  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          61  91  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              61  88  65  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Novlan


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