Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 131121
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 AM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE
DAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS HOVERING OVER OUR REGION HAS
STARTED TO FLATTEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DESCENDING CLOSE TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS IS GOING TO LEAD TO A WESTERLY ZONAL
FLOW BEFORE A COLD FRONT REACHES US ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN A BIT TODAY`S TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
RECORD VALUES.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR SOME WIND GUSTS
IN AREA MOUNTAIN. OUR SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THEREFORE MONDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN DUE TO SAID FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW
DEWPOINTS... BUT WE`RE STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

STARTING TUESDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
BORDERLAND. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. CONSEQUENTLY... THESE ARE THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS DURING THE POPE`S VISIT NEXT WEDNESDAY.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS WESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER THERE IS
STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW
I`M STICKING WITH THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VALID 13/12Z-14/12Z... VFR CONDS P6SM SKC-FEW250 THRU PD. LT E
TO SE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE S TO SW AOB 10KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA WILL GET BROKEN DOWN OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH...AFTER A 5 TO 10 DEGREE COOL DOWN ON
MONDAY...WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS.
VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM POOR TO GOOD THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
FALLING GENERALLY TO POOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  42  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           75  39  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              74  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              73  36  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              56  29  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   74  35  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             70  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  75  32  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               75  33  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               74  35  75  33 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            79  39  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              73  42  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  78  38  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            75  37  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          74  39  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           74  31  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   75  33  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                75  35  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               74  41  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 66  37  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               64  31  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                64  36  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 69  33  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               73  34  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               74  33  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            70  24  69  25 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  71  32  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   75  24  73  25 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              75  24  73  24 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 72  33  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  77  35  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 76  32  76  32 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  35  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              76  38  73  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

CRESPO/BRICE


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