Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRB 132348
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MUCH DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND IT. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT RESULTED IN STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT. RADAR MOSAIC
INDICATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA MOVING EAST INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THINK THAT ANY SHOWERS WOULD
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING SO THE
FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE EVENING.

HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PASSES OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN/WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
12Z...INCREASING TO CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS LATER IN THE MORNING. DID
NOT GO WITH ANY THUNDER ON MONDAY DUE TO MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSES
AND LITTLE TO NO CAPE.

PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON MONDAY LOOKED
PRETTY GOOD SO KEEP CLOSE TO WHAT WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT
AND TO GEORGIAN BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD...CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
SHOULD MAKE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL COME TO
AN END TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE 7 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL MONDAY
NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK COULD BE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD GENERALLY FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY WARM BUT REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONABLE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...
WITH BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NC/NE WI. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY LOW
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT NC WI LATE. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...
AND BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER NC/C/FAR NE WI.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....MG
LONG TERM......RDM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.