Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 220444
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Forecast highlights focus around severe storm chances this
afternoon- evening southeast of the KS Turnpike, and much cooler
by late next week.

Strong cold front advancing southeast is currently situated just
NW of the Turnpike corridor. Strong lift/convergence associated
with the approaching deep upper system and associated cold front
will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms along and ahead
of the advancing cold front through the evening. Adequate, but not
overly impressive, instability and deep layer shear will support
a handful of strong to severe storms, capable of large hail and
damaging winds. The greatest large hail threat (up to half-dollar
size or so) will likely be early on when the greatest potential
for semi-discrete storms exists, with increasing coverage/storm
mergers likely gradually decreasing the large hail threat toward
evening. Thus, main threats will gradually transition to isolated
marginally severe hail and damaging winds, as linear storm mode
increases along/just ahead of advancing strong cold front. A
rather large post-squall line rain shield is expected given
favorable upper jet dynamics slowing down the upper trough, which
could enhance heavy rainfall and possible low-land flooding
threat. Furthermore, given halfway decent low-level shear values
and low cloud bases, cannot completely rule out an isolated brief
tornado or two, either with early semi-discrete cells or meso-
vortices embedded within evening squall line. Threat should remain
quite isolated and brief though.

Otherwise, may be looking at some patchy frost tonight across
central and north-central KS, as temperatures drop into the mid-
upper 30s. Mainly for low-lying and/or sheltered areas.

Beautiful day expected Sunday, with light winds and highs mostly
in the low 70s. Another cold front passes through the region early
Monday, with strong/gusty northwest winds in its wake. However,
cold advection doesn`t commence until later, so still expecting
highs in the 70s Monday. Cold advection on stout NW winds will
support highs only in the low 60s for Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Another warm up into the 70s is expected Wed-Thu before another
strong cold front moves through Mid-America late Thursday. Model
consensus supports the coldest air of the season thus far by Friday
and the weekend, with both the ECMWF and GFS supporting daytime
highs only in the 40s and lows in the 20s-30s. Furthermore, while
plenty of model uncertainty exists, could see the first
snowflakes of the season sometime Friday-Saturday. Accumulating
snow other than a dusting appears unlikely at this time, although
will continue to monitor model trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A line of showers and storms will move eastward across southeast
Kansas overnight. The activity will shift east into Missouri with
VFR conditions expected thereafter. North winds will gradually
back to the west on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Elevated fire danger is possible across the region Monday,
Tuesday and Thursday, due to strong NW winds and dry low-levels
in wake of a pair of strong cold fronts. Current curing values
will likely mitigate critical/red flag conditions, although very
high grassland fire danger is possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  72  46  72 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      41  72  45  71 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          44  71  45  70 /  30   0   0   0
ElDorado        45  71  45  71 /  90   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   46  71  46  73 /  90   0   0   0
Russell         37  72  46  70 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      38  72  45  72 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          40  72  46  72 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       41  72  45  71 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     51  71  44  73 / 100  10   0   0
Chanute         49  70  44  71 / 100  10   0   0
Iola            48  70  44  71 / 100  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    50  69  44  72 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...ADK


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