Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 302013
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
313 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS THIS PERIOD. MEANWHILE
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE LIFTING OVER A MID-
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE MORE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WIND SPEEDS...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM KANSAS WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE
REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAINTAINING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES. THIS WILL WARM UP THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WHICH IS
SOMETHING WE HAVE NOT SEEN SO FAR THIS SPRING SEASON. THIS WILL GIVE
WAY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE WEEK WITH
SOME UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES POSSIBLE. THE EXPANSION OF MID-
LEVEL WARMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER...WHICH COULD CAP/INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY AND FOCUS ACTIVITY TO THE EDGE OF THE CAP DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. THE BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ONE UPPER IMPULSE IS APPROACHING THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE LAST
PIECE OF ENERGY FINALLY SLIDING ACROSS KS. THE COLD FRONT SWEPT
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW SITUATED OVER SOUTH TX WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR SPILLING-IN FROM THE NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF I-135 THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD
COME BACK IN TONIGHT. KICT WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
LOWER CEILINGS AND FOR NOW GOING WITH THE THINKING THEY WILL COME
BACK IN TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-135 LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS
DO NOT EXPECT DENSE FOG. SHOULD SEE MUCH MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUN AS SUBSIDENCE FINALLY SETS IN.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    52  75  56  78 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      49  75  56  78 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          49  72  54  77 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        51  74  54  76 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  75  55  77 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         46  76  56  80 /   0   0  30  20
GREAT BEND      48  76  57  80 /   0   0  20  20
SALINA          50  75  56  78 /   0   0  20  10
MCPHERSON       48  74  55  78 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     53  73  52  77 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         52  72  52  75 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            53  71  53  74 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    52  73  53  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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