Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 310439
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WHILE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
KANSAS...FORCING AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS WEAK...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THIS EVENING. MODEST ELEVATED WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF DAWN...SO WILL RETAIN
SMALL POPS THERE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FOCUS
AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE INCREASING PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BE HERALDED BY A LEAD UPPER TROF
LATE SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF TRAILING/WEAKER SHORTWAVES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO PERHAPS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DIURNAL
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED BY A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION UNTIL EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER THE FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE EPISODE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO PART OF SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST LIKELIHOOD SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70...THOUGH MESOSCALE AFFECTS/OUTFLOW COULD
FORCE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED BY MOST SHORT TERM
MODELS. THEREFORE WILL RETAIN CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ADJUST POPS
DOWN JUST A BIT. WHILE THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT
BY MONDAY MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR
COULD ALSO GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS. THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISE AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT NORTH OF THE
AREA...RESULTING IN VERY WARM BUT DRY WEATHER. DIFFERENCES DO
ARISE BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND OFFERING OF SLIGHT COOLING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS
SCENARIO THIS FAR OUT IS SHAKY AT BEST...SO WILL ONLY TREND
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO BY SATURDAY WITH MODEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...IN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES. WILL UTILIZE VCTS
AT RSL/SLN/HUT TERMINALS FOR THIS POSSIBLE ACTIVITY. STEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY...WILL LEAD TO VERY GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWESTERN KS. OTHER MORE
ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS OVER WESTERN
KS. WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN CENTRAL KS SUN EVE WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER EXPECTED THERE...AND CAN INTRODUCE
FURTHER SOUTH IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES IF NECESSARY.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  96  72  92 /  10  10  30  30
HUTCHINSON      69  97  71  90 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          69  95  72  90 /  10  10  50  30
ELDORADO        69  95  73  92 /  10  10  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
RUSSELL         69  97  65  85 /  20  20  60  10
GREAT BEND      69  97  66  87 /  20  20  50  10
SALINA          70  98  68  88 /  20  20  60  20
MCPHERSON       70  97  70  88 /  20  20  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     70  95  74  93 /  10  10  20  40
CHANUTE         69  94  73  91 /  10  10  30  40
IOLA            69  94  73  91 /  10  10  40  40
PARSONS-KPPF    70  95  74  92 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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