Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 281152
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
652 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Forecast highlights focus around prolonged rain/storms tonight
through Sunday.

This morning...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
to exit to the east/northeast early this morning, as a potent
shortwave continues to progress northeast into Nebraska. Could
even see patchy drizzle for a time early this morning across
mainly central and south-central Kansas before drier
west/northwest low-level flow overspreads the area.

Heavy rain/flooding...Attention then turns to the potential for
numerous bouts of rain/storms from tonight through Sunday, as a
powerful storm system digs across the central/southern Rockies,
eventually ejecting northeast into Mid-America. Thinking the
greatest threat for intense rainfall rates (i.e. 1-2" per hour)
and associated flash flooding will remain southeast of the
forecast area across portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri,
where best combination of strong/deep frontal forcing,
instability, high precipitable waters and moisture transport will
reside. Across Wichita`s forecast area, suspect much lower
instability along with the frontal zone further southeast will
support lower storm-total rainfall amounts ranging from generally
1.50-2.50", with higher amounts possibly approaching 4" over far
southeast Kansas. Per RFC QPF ensembles, this will support healthy
rises on most area rivers and streams, with the greatest threat
of rivers/streams reaching or exceeding flood stage over southeast
Kansas, including the Fall, Verdigris and Neosho river basins and
their associated tributaries. There are also some hints that
portions of the Arkansas and Little Arkansas Rivers across south-
central Kansas as well as the Cow Creek from Lyons to Hutchinson
could reach flood stage as well. Will continue to monitor trends.
For now, will continue with inherited Flash Flood Watch for
Montgomery county.

Severe thunderstorms...With the main frontal zone remaining just
south, thinking the greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will
remain south/southeast of the forecast area across Oklahoma,
Missouri and Arkansas. Some elevated instability will likely
reside north of the frontal zone across southern/southeast Kansas
for a handful of strong to marginally severe storms with a hail
threat tonight-Saturday night, but likely not looking at
widespread severe weather across southern/southeast Kansas.

Winter weather...The other aspect of this storm is the snowfall
potential across the western half of Kansas, eastern Colorado and
western Nebraska, as unseasonably cold air filters south. Several
inches are expected to accumulate there, with a slight possibility
of some light wet/slushy accumulations as far east as generally
Russell-Great Bend Saturday night-Sunday. Still some uncertainty
regarding this scenario, but regardless the big winter impacts
will most likely remain west of Wichita`s forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Per medium range consensus and associated ensembles, a fast-
moving system is expected to spread shower/thunderstorm chances
across the region Tuesday-Tuesday night. Widespread severe weather
or heavy rain appears unlikely with this system given limited
moisture/instability.

There is quite a bit of support from deterministic models and GFS
ensemble members that a drying/warming trend will occur mid/late
week into at least early next weekend, as a broad/amplified upper
ridge approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Scattered light rain showers will affect southeast Kansas through
mid morning, before ending. Will mention VCSH at the CNU terminal.

IFR/MVFR ceilings across northern and south-central Kansas, are
expected to lift and scatter out by midday, as a surface low
tracks eastward across northern Kansas allowing winds to become
light south-southwesterly. A cold front will drop southward late
this afternoon into tonight, behind the departing surface low.
This will shift winds to northerly with gusts of 20-25 knots
area-wide. In addition, stratus is progged to build/develop
southward behind the front, with IFR likely area-wide by late
Tonight. Rain showers are expected to develop in southern/western
Kansas this evening, becoming widespread across the state
overnight. Scattered thunderstorms will occur in the south.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Per RFC QPF ensembles, the expected widespread rains tonight
through Sunday will support healthy rises on most area rivers and
streams, with the greatest threat of rivers/streams reaching or
exceeding flood stage over southeast Kansas, including the Fall,
Verdigris and Neosho river basins and their associated
tributaries. There are also some hints that portions of the
Arkansas and Little Arkansas Rivers across south-central Kansas
as well as the Cow Creek from Lyons to Hutchinson could reach
flood stage as well. Will continue to monitor trends. For now,
will continue with inherited Flash Flood Watch for Montgomery
county.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  47  52  41 /  10  90  90  70
Hutchinson      71  44  47  39 /  10  90  90  70
Newton          70  44  48  39 /  10  90  90  70
ElDorado        71  47  52  42 /  20  90  90  70
Winfield-KWLD   73  49  55  42 /  30  90  90  70
Russell         64  39  42  35 /  10  90  90  80
Great Bend      68  39  42  36 /  10  90  90  70
Salina          67  43  46  40 /  20  80  90  80
McPherson       70  43  46  38 /  10  80  90  70
Coffeyville     72  56  64  49 /  60  90  90  80
Chanute         71  52  60  48 /  40  90  90  80
Iola            70  51  58  48 /  40  90  90  80
Parsons-KPPF    71  54  63  49 /  50  90  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for
KSZ100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC
HYDROLOGY...ADK


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