Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 131200
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD/DRY SURFACE ADVECTION CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH MAXS WELL
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO TODAY AND MAINLY IN THE 30S. AN UPPER TROF WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. A CONDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN
THE FORECAST...DEPENDENT ON SUFFICIENT SATURATION WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SUNDAY MORNING. IF SO...PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
CRITICAL FREEZING MARK FOR A FEW HOURS. FRONTAL TIMING NEAR DAWN
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY ALSO SUPPORT TRANSIENT FREEZING FOG IF THE
NEAR SURFACE MOISTENS SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE
DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER
MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROF WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS
ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER ON MONDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE NEXT WEEK REMAINS DAILY TEMPERATURE TRENDS
AND HOW WARM TO GO BY THURSDAY. IT STILL APPEARS AT LEAST ONE MORE
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE BROAD RIDGING ALOFT TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER
THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIODS. SHALLOW COOLER AIR COULD
AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY....HOWEVER BY THURSDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
LOWERING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...PRIMARILY AT KRSL WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MOISTENING BELOW 1000FT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE CEILINGS THAT LOW THIS MORNING BUT DID INCLUDE MENTIONS
OF SCATTER 900-1000FT CLOUDS TO HINT TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY. THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFTERNOON MIXING. THIS
EVENING...A SECOND ROUND OF LOWERING CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASE...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED
THINGS TOWARDS THE MVFR/IFR ROUTE TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD...BUT WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT TAFS TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO
BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF CONCERN.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  31  54  33 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      37  29  54  32 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          36  29  52  33 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        37  30  53  33 /   0  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   40  33  54  34 /   0  20  20  10
RUSSELL         37  26  52  31 /  10  10   0  10
GREAT BEND      38  27  53  31 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          36  27  52  32 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       37  28  53  32 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     40  31  50  33 /   0  10  30  10
CHANUTE         36  28  49  32 /   0  10  30  10
IOLA            34  27  48  31 /   0  10  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    38  30  50  33 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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