Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 260728
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
328 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH
A POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
PARENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT OBS DATA...AND THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TODAY
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S
TODAY AND AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WARM AND
MUGGY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REIGN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING
TRAVERSING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL TAKE AIM AT THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY DURING
PEAK HEATING. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH
DID UNDERCUT THE POPS A BIT DURING PERIODS OF ADVERTISED WEAKER
FORCING...AS MODELS TEND TO INFLATE THE CONVECTION IN GENERAL. THE
BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
TANDEM WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ONE
OR TWO OF THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT LOZ AND SME OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SYM MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER IN AN HOUR OR
SO...BUT PROBABILITY OF THIS IS LOW ENOUGH THAT IT WAS NOT WORTH
MENTIONING IN THE SYM 6Z TAF. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
DATA...THE 15 TO 16Z TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE WHEN ALL OF THE TAF
SITES COULD SEE A SHOT AT EXPERIENCING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
THE PROBABILITY OF THIS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AROUND 1Z
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT THE LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR



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