Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 160717
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
317 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN ACTION THIS MORNING REMAINS CENTERED AROUND A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. IN FACT...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS CONTINUED
TO EXPAND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS DEVELOPED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING SOUTHWARD. THE DRIZZLE THREAT WILL ALSO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE
FRONT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON...CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE STUBBORN
TODAY...AND WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH LIKE
THIS PAST SATURDAY...GOING TO GO WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THIS CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE EXITING COLD FRONT.

STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO
TONIGHT. MODELS REMAIN AGGRESSIVE ON CLEARING THINGS OUT. IF THIS IS
THE CASE...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE. GOING TO ADD A MENTION INTO THE HWO FOR THE DENSE FOG
POSSIBILITIES. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF WEDNESDAY...SUNSHINE SHOULD
RETURN...HELPING TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO AROUND 70 FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS AFTER A CHILLY START WHERE VALLEYS MAY START THE DAY IN THE
UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN OVERALL AMPLIFIED PATTERN
IN STORE FOR THE CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH
TROUGHING IN THE EAST AND OFF THE WEST COAST. THESE FEATURES
GENERALLY DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE
RIDGE FLATTENING AS IT EXPANDS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEST
COAST TROUGH WILL ALSO WEAKEN AS IT SETTLES IN ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE...SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHING SETTING IN ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA AND ESTABLISH A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS BUILDING BACK TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS BY FRIDAY...AND LIKELY ECLIPSING NORMALS BY
SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A STOUT COLD FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP AS
A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY MODIFICATION WITH THIS MORE AMPLIFIED
SYSTEM FORTHCOMING FROM THE MODELS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE
TO THE BLENDED SOLUTION. RIGHT NOW...THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS BY
MONDAY...WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE BEYOND THAT DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH
OF THE COLD AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MARCH SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. WHILE VFR CIGS WILL START OFF THE
PERIOD...AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON...IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP AND LAST WELL INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. IN FACT...NOT ALL THAT
CONFIDENT WE WILL LOSE THE MVFR CIGS TOMORROW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL GO PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER. WE MAY FINALLY
LOSE THE LOW CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVENING AS SKIES CLEAR FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS MAY IN TURN SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS





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