Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 291938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW



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