Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 282031
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID INCREASE POPS ALONG
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS CENTERED OVER I-94...AND ALSO
PROLONGED THE POPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. ALSO INCREASED CLOUDS FOR FRIDAY...AND
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY FROM GUIDANCE.

ALL THAT WAS LEFT OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WAS A DECAYING VORTICITY
MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. BECAUSE THIS VORTICITY MAX IS CUTOFF FROM
THE MAIN STREAM...IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT ALSO BE SLOW TO
EXIT THE REGION. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS MN/WI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING OVERNIGHT SO HAVE SCATTERED CLOUDS
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE SAME SOUNDINGS ALSO BECOME SATURATED AT
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY AFTERNOON. FOR THAT REASON
REINTRODUCED CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATE CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...SO
DECREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH THE 500MB LOW OVER COLORADO.  AS THIS
SYSTEM TRIES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WITH DRY AIR ADVANCING THROUGH THE
STATE OF MINNESOTA.  THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CAME IN WITH A CONSENSUS
THAT THE DRY AIR PUSH FROM THE NORTH WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER...WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
COME.  THE 12Z EC REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE
PRECIP NORTH...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/GEM SHUNTED THE
PRECIP SOUTH...WITH THE GEM BEING BULLISH IN DOING THAT WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN MN.  GIVEN THE DIFFERENTIAL
DIVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION COMING NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE
STILL SEE SOME PRECIP ADVANCING INTO SOUTHERN MN...BUT DID TRIM POPS
OVERALL.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THAT EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER.  THE
NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES DROPS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA.  HOWEVER...THE
NEWEST RUN OF THE ECMWF TAKES THIS SHORTWAVE ON A DIFFERENT PATH
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST A DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA...SO THE POPS ARE LIMITED TO 30
PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN IN
THE LONG TERM WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WEEK...BUT A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE END
OF NEXT WEEK IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN MN. WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN...EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO SEE MAINLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER
40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT RWF...BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR
ELSEWHERE WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER AREAS OF
RAIN. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
FLAKES MIXING WITH THE RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE AT 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NE AT 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW AT 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...ADL


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