Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
FXUS61 KRLX 302342
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
742 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. Cold front arrives
Thursday with showers and storms.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 pm update...Forecast remains on track with high pressure
moving in...no changes are needed at this time.
Have a discreet little band of moisture that has just traversed
the Ohio River...allowing convection to build just enough to
support a few isolated showers/thunderstorms. Band of moisture
shows up really well in the 700-600mb layer...where this layer is
bone dry elsewhere across the CWA. Convection also going up over
the mountains early this afternoon...but again...looking at
isolated to scattered activity.
Clearing tonight with developing valley fog likely. Dewpoints down
in the lower 60s will allow for temperatures to drop as low...with
50s in the higher elevations.
Ridging aloft returns...with weak disturbances within. Mid levels
will still be very dry...less some convective feedback seen on the
NAM over the mountains...which should limit any realized
shower/thunderstorm activity. Did increase the coverage of the low
POPS tomorrow...but still confine them generally to the mountains.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Not much change...upper level ridge still lingers in the region
and is slow to flatten out keeping diurnal thunderstorms in the
vicinity. A trough finally arrives on Thursday bringing a cold
front through with some instability for some thunderstorms and
rain showers. Front hangs up on the mountains keeping precip
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak upper level ridge moves in Friday evening helping to dry
things out before another upper level wave begins to move into the
area for Sunday for another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Troughy pattern should keep lingering showers around...and
temperatures may be quite cool up in the mountains.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.
Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.
Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure is moving into the region and skies should become
mostly clear after sunset. The trick tonight will be if we will
see fog develop. Airmass today is much drier...however dewpoints
remain in the upper 50s to low 60s and with radiational cooling
overnight...temperatures could come very close to crossover values
and favor fog development. Currently, I have more confidence that
CKB will see IFR fog than any other site simply because they
received rainfall today...enhancing low level moisture. Everywhere
else confidence is much lower so decided to hold off from putting
IFR fog in there now and will reassess at the 03Z update.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of valley fog tonight
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 05/31/16
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.