Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 311513
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1113 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TONIGHT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

VFR CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST
PROTECTED VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV/SL



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