Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 030452
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1252 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND WAVE CROSS OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 PM UPDATE...LOWERED POP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR AND TRENDS WITH FRONT NOW THROUGH THE REGION. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

930 PM UPDATE...
WAVE IS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA PER PRESSURE FALL / RISE
COUPLET. WITH THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER...THE FLOOD
WATCH...IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAS BEEN CANCELED.

800 PM UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130 CANCELED AS SEVERE CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
WAVE ALSO SHIFTING EAST...AND THE FFA WAS DROPPED ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER...AND POPS TRIMMED ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS HAVE A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...HOLDING UP FOR AWHILE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT.
THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAST. WILL GO
WITH THE SLOWER MODELS AND USE NAM GUIDANCE FOR TIMING. THIS WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT IS THE RESULT OF A VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL ALSO BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE AREA...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH COVERS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS LOW.

RAINS WILL TAPER OFF BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT. BUT
HAVE TO LINGER SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST...WITH THE
FRONT REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT NOTHING REALLY COLD. FLASH FLOOD WATCH RUNS
TIL 8AM TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER WITH LOTS OF LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN
MUCH COOLER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT COMING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. THE UPPER LOW
WILL THEN CREATE UNSTABLE AIR WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING...LOW TOP THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED AN ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR THE FORECAST DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A PATTERN TRANSITION. THIS BRINGS IN SOME
DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE REMAINING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT START OF PERIOD DESPITE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...WHICH WILL
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. AS THE CAUSATIVE
WAVE EXITS AND THE SHOWERS WANE OVERNIGHT...MVFR MIST AND STRATOCU
ARE LIKELY. CLEARING IS NOT EXPECTED AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT...SO
DENSE FOG IS LESS LIKELY.

THE STRATOCU MAY LOWER TO IFR STRATUS TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...WHICH
WILL THEN GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO MVFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW WILL SWITCH TO LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD....AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST TOWARD DAWN TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT WEST
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND
FORMATION OF IFR CEILINGS AND FOG OVERNIGHT...AND ON LIFTING OF
STRATUS TUESDAY MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM



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