Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 240654
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
254 AM EDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level trough with isolated to scattered showers today.
Much cooler weather by midweek. Another but stronger upper
trough/low with associated cold front next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Yesterday`s cold front is well to our east now. Still seeing
some weak echos on radar, indicating isolated light showers or
drizzle may be drifting through. Kept some 20 POPs in early this
morning to account for that. Radar also shows a bit better area
of showers from IN through central KY. These should drift our
way towards sunrise, mainly across the Ohio River Valley.

Moisture is pretty limited, but have decent upper level support
sliding through this afternoon as the 500mb trough makes its way
across Ohio. Have some isolated to scattered showers with this.
These should taper off with sunset tonight, providing a mostly
dry night.

Blended ECMWF MOS into previous forecast for highs and lows,
with numbers just a bit below normal for both. Winds remain out
of the SW through the period, holding off the coldest air until
after the near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

Models show a deep upper level trough with areas of strong
vorticity crossing our CWA Wednesday. Any lingering low level
moisture will be influence by strong upper level forcing to
create isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday night.
Cold H850 temperatures around 0C will bring sfc lows in the
lower 30s perhaps producing areas of frost across the lowlands.
A frost advisory may be required fog Wednesday night. Will keep
a mention in the HWO.

In the northeast mountains few flakes or light snow showers will
be possible Wednesday night. High pressure ridge builds across
the southeast and mid Atlantic states including WV Thursday,
providing pleasant temperatures Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

Models show another cold front moving into the region over the
weekend. As it approaches, winds will increase from the
southwest pumping moisture and warmer air Friday.

Behind the front, much cooler air, with the possibility of rain
and snow showers across the higher terrain, and perhaps, a few
flakes across some lowland locations.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

Broken deck of MVFR clouds in place, IFR at higher elevations in
the mountains. Did have some decent holes earlier and decoupled
winds, which allowed EKN to briefly fog. However clouds have
built back in, and expect flow to pick back up as well.

Do have some pockets of light rain or drizzle drifting through,
so have included that in some TAFs.

Otherwise, expect improvement to VFR through the day as clouds
lift and scatter out. Could get some isolated showers this
afternoon as well as upper trough approaches.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR may be more widespread in the
mountains.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 10/24/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    M    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    L    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings if
frost does not occur.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ


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