Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 110539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1239 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS TO END OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...BKW...AND THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EKN AND
CKB JUST TO THE WEST...LATER IN THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...IFR SHOULD BE ON THE WANE...BUT STILL
SEEING 2SM SNOW IN BKW. WILL KEEP THIS GOING FOR A FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS SLOWLY
LIFTS ABOVE 3KFT AND DISSOLVES OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26


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