Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 251231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Nov 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 25-Nov 27 2014 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 25-Nov 27 2014

            Nov 25     Nov 26     Nov 27
00-03UT        1          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          1
06-09UT        1          1          1
09-12UT        2          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 25-Nov 27 2014

              Nov 25  Nov 26  Nov 27
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on Nov 25-26 from Region 2209.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 25-Nov 27 2014

              Nov 25        Nov 26        Nov 27
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio
blackouts and a slight chance for R3 or greater events from Regions 2209
or 2217.


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