Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 311231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Jul 31 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2014

            Jul 31     Aug 01     Aug 02
00-03UT        1          2          2
03-06UT        1          1          1
06-09UT        1          1          0
09-12UT        2          1          2
12-15UT        1          1          2
15-18UT        1          1          3
18-21UT        2          2          3
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2014

              Jul 31  Aug 01  Aug 02
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 31 2014 1114 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2014

              Jul 31        Aug 01        Aug 02
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts exists
for the forecast period (Jul 31-Aug 02).


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