Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 221230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Jul 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 22-Jul 24 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 22-Jul 24 2017

            Jul 22     Jul 23     Jul 24
00-03UT        3          4          3
03-06UT        2          4          3
06-09UT        4          3          2
09-12UT        5 (G1)     2          1
12-15UT        5 (G1)     2          1
15-18UT        2          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected early to midday on
day one (22 Jul) due to continued positive polarity CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2017

              Jul 22  Jul 23  Jul 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 22-Jul 24 2017

              Jul 22        Jul 23        Jul 24
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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