Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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850
FXXX10 KWNP 161232
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Jan 16 1231 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 16-Jan 18 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 16-Jan 18 2017

            Jan 16     Jan 17     Jan 18
00-03UT        1          2          3
03-06UT        1          2          4
06-09UT        1          2          5 (G1)
09-12UT        0          2          5 (G1)
12-15UT        1          1          4
15-18UT        1          2          3
18-21UT        1          3          3
21-00UT        1          3          4

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day three
(18 Jan) due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 16-Jan 18 2017

              Jan 16  Jan 17  Jan 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 16-Jan 18 2017

              Jan 16        Jan 17        Jan 18
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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