Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 070031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Mar 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 07-Mar 09 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 07-Mar 09 2015

            Mar 07     Mar 08     Mar 09
00-03UT        3          3          3
03-06UT        2          2          3
06-09UT        4          2          4
09-12UT        2          3          3
12-15UT        2          3          3
15-18UT        2          3          3
18-21UT        2          3          3
21-00UT        2          4          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active periods (Below G1-Minor) are expected over the next
three days (07-09 Mar) due to coronal hole high speed stream activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 07-Mar 09 2015

              Mar 07  Mar 08  Mar 09
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 06 2015 0457 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 07-Mar 09 2015

              Mar 07        Mar 08        Mar 09
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for further M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate
radio blackouts) flares for the next three days (07-09 Mar) with new
Region 2297 as the likely source.


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