National Weather Service Text Product Display

Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions: 1
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AXUS73 KDDC 232000 CCA
DGTDDC

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...MINOR IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT...

OVERVIEW...

THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF
AGRICULTURE ON MARCH 19TH SHOWS A CONTINUING DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST FROM MORTON
COUNTY TO SCOTT COUNTY ARE IN D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT. AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF STEVENS COUNTY TO STAFFORD COUNTY ARE IN D3 (EXTREME)
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE ONLY COUNTY THAT IS IN D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT
IS BARBER COUNTY AND IMMEDIATE BORDERS SURROUNDING IT. 6 MONTH
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ARE 2.25 INCHES AT GARDEN CITY...1.27 INCHES
AT DODGE CITY...AND 3.29 INCHES AT MEDICINE LODGE. THESE VALUES ARE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REST OF THE REGION.

CURRENT ENSO STATE...

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ACROSS THE EAST EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
HAVE REFLECTED BELOW-AVERAGE CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST MONTH, WITH
WEAKENING ANOMALIES RECENTLY. ALL OF THE WEEKLY SST DEPARTURES IN
THE NINO REGIONS RANGED BETWEEN -0.4C IN THE NINO 4 REGION TO +0.5C
ACROSS THE NINO 1+2 REGION AS OF MARCH 15TH, AND THE LAST
THREE-MONTHLY SST ANOMALY IN NINO 3.4 WAS -0.6C IN DECEMBER THROUGH
FEBRUARY. SST ANOMALIES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A POSITIVE CHANGE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND NEGATIVE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. POSITIVE
SUB-SURFACE SST ANOMALIES HAVE EXPANDED EASTWARD. IN GENERAL, THE
OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ANOMALIES RECENTLY NOTED ALL REFLECT COOL,
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. THE LATEST ENSO DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS
OF NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES ARE CLUSTERED AROUND 0C TO +0.5C, WHICH
WOULD INDICATE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS FAVORED AT LEAST THROUGH
SUMMER 2013. THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS INCREASING ON BOTH THE
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SIDES IN THE LATE SUMMER THROUGH EARLY WINTER.

HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NO WATER FLOWING IN THE STREAM AND CREEK BEDS FOR
THE LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DROUGHT. ANY FLOWS ALONG THE ARKANSAS
RIVER IN EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS ARE THE RESULT OF RELEASES FROM JOHN
MARTIN RESERVOIR.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FUELS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT AS DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS ARE AROUND 2.75 INCHES FOR WESTERN KANSAS PER
CPC THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH.

OUTLOOK...

LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE MONTH. LONG RANGE FORECASTING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE
UNCERTAINTY AND LARGE ERRORS. THERE COULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
DROUGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOWS A
CONTINUATION OF THE DROUGHT.

$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
