Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 200220 CCA
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PMZ172-PMZ181-040200-
CHUUK-MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1205 PM CHST THU APR 20 2017

...THE EXTREME DROUGHT PERSISTS IN THE NORTHERN AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL JUNE AND SEASONAL
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF
MONTHS. VERY DRY WEATHER REMAINS NORTH OF 8N TO WAKE ISLAND FROM THE
DATE LINE WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...MOST OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA...THE REPUBLIC
OF PALAU AND MOST OF THE US-AFFILIATED MICRONESIAN ISLANDS SOUTH OF
8N SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
STILL INDICATES THAT WOTJE AND UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS ARE IN SHORT-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4).
ALSO...KWAJALEIN ATOLL ALONG WITH LOCAL COMMUNITIES...ESPECIALLY
ENEBOUJ AND EBADON ARE IN SHORT-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL
1 OF 4). SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THESE AREAS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...
EXTREME DROUGHT IS AFFECTING WOTJE AND UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ATOLLS. THE ATMOSPHERIC FLOW NORTHWARD FROM THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS TO WAKE ISLAND HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY...BUT THE FAR NORTHERN
MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN THE COMING WEEKS AND ISLANDS ALONG AND
NORTH OF ABOUT 8N TO 10N SUCH AS WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI
AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS WILL SUFFER FROM CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...MALOELAP...
LIKIEP AND AILUK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THESE AREAS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH JUNE...AND
CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
AS EARLY AS JULY OR AUGUST. BUT...THE SKILL OF THE COMPUTER MODELS
IS NOT SO GREAT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND SHOULD IMPROVE BY JUNE.
ISLANDS NORTH OF ABOUT 8N TO 10N ARE EXPERIENCING EXTREME DROUGHT
AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE COMING WEEKS.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   APR    APR
                                         (1-19) NORMAL % NORMAL

WOTJE             1.50  0.08  4.48  0.99  0.61  2.22   27
UTIRIK            1.99  0.63  MSG   MSG   TRACE 1.90   00
MAJURO           11.77 17.65  7.59 13.07  5.57  5.86   95
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE  10.36  9.00  5.60  1.07  3.14  3.93   80

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND REDUCED CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION
CAUSED BY TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD HELP OFFSET
AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
THE UTIRIK AREA HAS BEEN VERY DRY AND SATELLITE SHOWS ONLY SPOTTY
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING OVER WOTJE...UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...
ENEWETAK...AILUK...LIKIEP...MALOELAP AND KWAJALEIN ATOLLS RECENTLY.
COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT
10 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWER COULD PRODUCE
ONE OR TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...AND RAINFALL FOR KWAJALEIN ATOLL AND
WOTJE COULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO
SHOULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK AND ENEWETAK
HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO) SYSTEMS AND THAT SYSTEMS ARE
LIKELY ON AILUK...WOTJE AND MEJIT. EVEN WITH RO UNITS... LOCAL
VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL
WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS
ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.

CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE WELL-MAINTAINED SINCE PASSING SHOWERS
COULD AFFORD AN OPPORTUNITY TO CATCH RAIN WATER.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 4 MAY 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED
TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER
COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM
CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT.

THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA. FOR MORE INFORMATION
SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY
OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE
NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...

WFO TIYAN GUAM
3232 HUENEME RD
BARRIGADA GU 96913
PHONE: 671-472-0946
W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON/GUARD

$$



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