Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FGUS73 KARX 231349
ESFARX
IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-191-MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-
WIC001-011-019-023-043-053-057-063-081-103-119-121-123-302359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
846 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE         18.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
BLK RVR FLS         47.0   51.0   55.0 :  33   33   16   12   <5   <5
GALESVILLE          12.0   13.0   15.0 :  27   21   18   16   <5   <5
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING             18.0   20.0   22.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
AUSTIN              15.0   18.0   20.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CHARLES CTY         12.0   15.0   18.0 :  20   18   10    9   <5   <5
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN              10.5   12.0   14.0 :  21   20   15   16   10   10
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE            12.0   13.0   14.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
VIOLA               14.0   17.0   20.0 :  29   26    6   <5   <5   <5
READSTOWN           11.0   14.0   17.0 :  38   29    7   <5   <5   <5
SLDRS GROVE         13.0   16.0   19.0 :  26   23    7   <5   <5   <5
GAYS MILLS          13.0   15.0   17.0 :  50   33   12    9    6   <5
STEUBEN             12.0   13.0   15.0 :  40   29   23   13    6   <5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  12   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
WABASHA             12.0   14.0   16.0 : >95   41    6   12   <5   <5
ALMA                16.0   17.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DAM 5              660.0  662.0  665.0 :  15   18   <5   10   <5   <5
DAM 5A             656.0  659.0  661.0 :  15   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
WINONA              13.0   15.0   18.0 :  30   29    7   15   <5   <5
TREMPEALEAU        647.0  649.0  651.0 :  23   21   <5   12   <5   <5
LA CRESCENT        641.0  643.0  645.0 :  16   18   <5    9   <5   <5
LA CROSSE           12.0   13.0   15.5 :  21   24    7   15   <5   <5
GENOA              631.0  634.0  636.0 :  38   35   <5    7   <5   <5
LANSING             17.0   19.0   20.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
LYNXVILLE          625.0  628.0  631.0 :  10   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
MCGREGOR            16.0   20.0   23.0 :  50   36    9   12   <5   <5
GUTTENBERG          15.0   18.0   21.0 :  27   32    7    9   <5   <5
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON             15.0   17.0   18.0 :  13    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO           12.0   16.0   18.0 :  13    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE                9.0   11.0   12.0 :  23   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER             12.0   16.0   20.0 :  41   33   10   10    6   <5
GARBER              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  26   20   13   10    6    7
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH             12.0   13.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DORCHESTER          14.0   17.0   19.0 :  20   18    6   <5   <5   <5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA              9.0   10.0   11.0 :  10    6    6   <5   <5   <5
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS          18.0   24.0   26.0 :   9   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER           14.0   18.0   20.0 :   9    6   <5   <5   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE           6.3    6.4    7.6    9.6   12.5   14.2   15.5
BLK RVR FLS          40.1   40.3   41.8   44.3   49.4   52.9   53.6
GALESVILLE            7.7    7.7    7.9    9.4   12.3   13.6   13.9
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING              12.1   12.5   13.7   14.5   15.9   17.0   17.4
AUSTIN                5.7    6.0    7.1    8.1   10.2   12.8   13.9
CHARLES CTY           4.2    4.9    6.2    7.6   10.7   15.7   18.6
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN                3.7    4.6    6.4    8.1   10.4   14.7   15.7
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE              3.6    4.5    5.2    7.1    9.3   11.3   13.7
VIOLA                 9.5   10.1   11.5   12.9   14.6   16.1   18.9
READSTOWN             5.7    6.7    8.3   10.3   12.0   13.6   15.8
SLDRS GROVE           8.4    9.4   10.7   12.0   13.5   15.4   18.9
GAYS MILLS            9.2   10.2   11.7   13.0   14.1   16.0   19.7
STEUBEN               9.2    9.6   10.9   11.8   13.0   14.3   16.5
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY            14.2   14.2   14.2   14.3   15.1   16.1   17.0
WABASHA              12.2   12.2   12.3   12.3   12.8   13.6   14.4
ALMA                 11.0   11.0   11.0   11.1   11.9   13.0   14.0
DAM 5               658.0  658.1  658.1  658.2  659.3  660.5  661.7
DAM 5A              653.6  653.7  653.7  653.8  655.0  656.4  657.5
WINONA               12.1   12.1   12.2   12.3   13.5   14.9   16.1
TREMPEALEAU         645.8  645.8  645.9  646.0  646.9  648.0  648.9
LA CRESCENT         639.4  639.4  639.5  639.6  640.6  641.6  642.5
LA CROSSE            11.0   11.0   11.1   11.2   12.0   12.8   13.5
GENOA               630.4  630.4  630.5  630.7  631.5  632.6  633.5
LANSING              12.1   12.1   12.2   12.5   13.5   15.1   16.1
LYNXVILLE           622.4  622.4  622.5  622.8  623.8  625.4  626.4
MCGREGOR             15.0   15.1   15.2   16.1   17.2   20.0   21.6
GUTTENBERG           13.5   13.6   13.7   14.2   15.2   17.4   18.8
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON               5.7    5.8    6.4    9.4   12.1   16.1   16.4
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO             3.0    3.4    3.9    5.7    9.1   13.0   16.0
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE                 6.0    6.7    7.2    8.2    9.0   10.1   10.7
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER               7.6    7.8    9.4   10.9   14.1   17.6   21.7
GARBER                9.2    9.4   11.0   13.4   17.1   21.9   28.2
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH               3.1    3.5    4.6    5.5    7.2    9.1   11.4
DORCHESTER            8.6    9.2   10.5   11.5   13.7   16.1   19.5
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA               5.2    5.2    5.3    6.0    7.8    9.4   10.1
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS            8.1    8.1    9.3   11.4   13.6   18.5   21.3
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER             3.7    4.4    5.3    6.9    8.0   13.5   17.9

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 4/28/2014 - 7/27/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:BLACK RIVER
NEILLSVILLE           3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.7    2.7
BLK RVR FLS          36.2   36.1   36.0   35.9   35.8   35.7   35.7
GALESVILLE            3.0    3.0    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.4
:CEDAR RIVER
LANSING               9.5    9.4    9.4    9.3    9.3    9.3    9.2
AUSTIN                3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.2
CHARLES CTY           2.6    2.5    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.0
:TURTLE CREEK
AUSTIN                2.1    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:KICKAPOO RIVER
LA FARGE              3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7
VIOLA                 8.1    7.8    7.3    7.1    7.0    6.9    6.8
READSTOWN             4.3    4.2    3.9    3.8    3.7    3.7    3.6
SLDRS GROVE           6.1    5.4    4.6    4.2    3.9    3.7    3.5
GAYS MILLS            7.4    7.1    6.6    6.4    6.3    6.1    6.0
STEUBEN               7.1    6.7    6.2    6.1    5.9    5.8    5.7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LAKE CITY             7.7    7.1    6.7    6.3    6.1    5.9    5.9
WABASHA               7.9    7.6    7.4    7.1    7.0    6.9    6.9
ALMA                  5.5    5.1    4.8    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2
DAM 5               652.0  651.6  651.4  651.2  651.1  651.1  651.0
DAM 5A              646.8  646.4  646.1  645.9  645.7  645.6  645.6
WINONA                6.1    5.8    5.7    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5
TREMPEALEAU         640.8  640.4  640.1  639.7  639.6  639.4  639.4
LA CRESCENT         633.3  632.6  632.3  631.6  631.4  631.3  631.3
LA CROSSE             5.9    5.3    5.2    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.8
GENOA               623.9  622.9  622.4  621.4  621.1  620.8  620.7
LANSING               8.5    8.2    8.1    7.9    7.8    7.8    7.7
LYNXVILLE           616.6  615.2  614.8  613.5  613.0  612.5  612.3
MCGREGOR              9.2    8.5    8.3    7.9    7.7    7.4    7.3
GUTTENBERG            8.0    6.7    6.0    4.8    4.4    4.0    3.9
:ROOT RIVER
HOUSTON               3.5    3.4    3.2    3.1    3.0    3.0    2.9
:SOUTH BRANCH ROOT RIVER
LANESBORO             2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.8
:TREMPEALEAU RIVER
DODGE                 5.2    5.1    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5
:TURKEY RIVER
ELKADER               6.2    6.1    5.8    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.4
GARBER                7.1    6.9    6.4    6.2    6.1    6.0    6.0
:UPPER IOWA RIVER
DECORAH               2.3    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.9
DORCHESTER            7.5    7.5    7.3    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1
:WISCONSIN RIVER
MUSCODA               1.7    1.5    1.1    0.8    0.5    0.4    0.3
:ZUMBRO RIVER
ZUMBRO FLS            5.9    5.5    5.2    4.9    4.5    4.4    3.8
:SOUTH FORK ZUMBRO RIVER
ROCHESTER             2.9    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.2


THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE (LOWER CASE)

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE MAY.

$$



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