Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1214 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Multi-Day Heavy Rainfall Event Unfolding and Flooding Likely
for Portions of the Central Gulf Coast Region...

Between early tomorrow and late week, developing heavy rainfall
associated with a tropical plume of moisture will bring heavy
rainfall to portions of the Central Gulf Coast Region.

Before going into more specifics, first let`s discuss the soil
conditions and local stream flow rates. The ground is very wet.
Over the past two weeks, large portions of our area have received
5-10" of rain. This has resulted in rainfall that is 200-400% of
normal. Also, according to the latest USGS streamflow data,
discharge rates on area streams and creeks are above the 90th
percentile which is also averaging 200-400% of normal flow rates.
So, it will not take as much rain for flooding to begin, especially
on the flashier creeks and streams in our area. A few of our
smaller local rivers are currently experiencing minor flooding
over interior southeast Mississippi and the western Florida
Panhandle.

Current basin average rainfall forecasts are expected to be in
the 3-6" range, with isolated totals double that. Counties most
affected at this point look to be the Alabama coastal counties
(possibly including Escambia County Alabama), the extreme western
Florida Panhandle Counties, and most of interior southeastern
Mississippi. The forecast is the very latest but is subject to
change.

Flash Flooding is also likely, especially where heavier rainbands
set up and train over the same locations. Flash flooding occurs
when there is a rapid response to a large amount of rainfall in
less than a six hour period.

Confidence is high that if this amount of rainfall is realized,
most of our area rivers will easily experience minor flooding and
some possibly moderate flooding.

Please also realize, that while flash flooding may come to an end
by week`s end, river flooding could very well extend days beyond
that.

A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued later this afternoon and
will be updated periodically with the very latest information.

$$

/23 JMM



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