Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
893
FGUS73 KTOP 151836
ESFTOP
KSC003-027-029-031-041-059-061-111-117-131-139-149-157-161-177-
197-201-011800-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
Issued By National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill Mo
1236 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

...2018 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Topeka Hydrologic Service Area
(HSA) which includes the Republican River, Solomon River, Smoky Hill
River, Big Blue River, Kansas River, Marais Des Cygnes River, Neosho
River, and their tributaries in north central, northeast and east
central Kansas.

...There is a normal to below normal probability of flooding along
area streams and rivers this spring...

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/17/2018  - 05/18/2018

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Big Blue River
Marysville          35.0   38.2   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg          19.0   19.4   45.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mill Creek
Washington          18.0   19.0   35.0 :  18   27   14   22   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Barnes              16.0   33.0   38.0 :   6   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids         26.0   52.0   68.0 :  52   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort           19.0   27.5   40.5 :  35   44   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fancy Creek
Randolph            16.0   24.0   40.0 :   6   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chapman Creek
Chapman             19.0   26.0   37.0 :  12   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Lyon Creek
Junction City       21.0   35.0   39.0 :   6   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City       22.0   32.0   44.0 :   7   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Ft Riley            21.0   26.0   33.0 :   8   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic    14.0   17.0   23.0 :   5   14   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Manhattan           18.0   26.0   42.0 :  12   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
Wamego              19.0   26.0   38.0 :   6   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Vermillion Creek
Louisville          30.0   34.0   44.0 :  18   39   11   30   <5   <5
:Rock Creek
Louisville          27.0   33.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Belvue              20.0   28.0   33.0 :   5   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cross Creek
Rossville           25.0   29.0   31.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mill Creek
Paxico              21.0   31.0   33.0 :  14   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Topeka              26.0   27.0   44.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Soldier Creek
Delia               26.0   26.5   29.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Topeka 4nw          29.0   34.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
Lecompton           17.0   23.8   38.0 :   8   21   <5   <5   <5   <5
Lawrence            18.0   20.0   29.0 :  22   30   <5   10   <5   <5
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4s         23.0   25.0   45.0 :   7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Scandia             10.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown           16.0   19.0   35.0 :  12   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Concordia           15.0   18.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elk Creek
Clyde               14.0   22.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Republican River
Clay Center         15.0   21.0   28.0 :  14   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Solomon River
Glasco              22.0   25.0   34.0 :  26   25   16   14   <5   <5
Minneapolis         26.0   30.0   38.0 :   9    9    5    6   <5   <5
:Salt Creek
Ada                 18.0   19.0   24.0 :   9   19    8   15   <5   <5
:Solomon River
Niles               24.0   28.0   34.0 :  38   48   31   41   <5   <5
:Saline River
Tescott             25.0   29.0   32.0 :  14   38   10   33   <5    5
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri   27.0   30.0   33.0 :  15   25    7   13   <5   <5
:Mud Creek
Abilene             15.0   27.0   33.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise          26.0   27.0   40.0 :  23   40   21   33   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading             19.0   21.0   45.0 :  14   44    6   22   <5   <5
Quenemo             17.0   24.5   40.5 :  34   51    6   22   <5   <5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon              10.0   16.0   24.0 :  20   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa              31.0   33.0   45.0 :  12   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pottawatomie Creek
Scipio              23.0   25.0   38.0 :   7   66    6   52   <5   <5
Lane                23.0   24.0   28.5 :   7   29   <5   22   <5   <5
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 8nw          21.0   23.5   40.0 :  13   19   <5    6   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Emporia             20.0   24.0   32.0 :   9   27   <5   13   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Americus            26.0   27.0   40.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Emporia 3nw         19.0   19.5   30.5 :  <5    9   <5    8   <5   <5
Neosho Rapids       22.0   23.0   44.0 :   7   18    6   16   <5   <5
Burlington          27.0   40.0   45.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Leroy               23.0   23.0   38.0 :   5    8    5    8   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2018  - 05/18/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville           13.5   14.6   18.5   22.2   26.1   29.6   31.3
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg            2.8    3.3    4.4    7.2    9.5   11.3   13.4
:Mill Creek
Washington            2.2    2.3    5.2   10.6   14.3   20.6   22.7
:Little Blue River
Barnes                3.6    4.1    5.9   10.0   12.7   15.3   16.9
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids          16.9   18.5   20.7   26.3   29.8   33.9   35.9
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort             4.1    4.7    7.9   14.5   21.2   24.8   26.0
:Fancy Creek
Randolph              6.1    6.2    7.6    9.0   11.6   14.5   17.2
:Chapman Creek
Chapman               4.4    4.8    6.1    9.1   13.7   19.9   21.1
:Lyon Creek
Junction City         5.8    6.2    6.9    8.8   12.6   15.5   22.8
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City         3.1    3.6    6.8   10.4   15.9   21.3   22.6
:Kansas River
Ft Riley              6.8    7.1    8.9   10.5   14.1   20.2   22.8
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic      2.4    3.2    4.0    4.8    6.2    8.3   13.9
:Kansas River
Manhattan             6.7    6.8    8.3    9.6   14.0   18.7   19.1
Wamego                4.8    6.3    8.2   10.6   13.5   16.3   19.7
:Vermillion Creek
Louisville            7.1    7.7   11.7   15.6   25.1   34.7   37.3
:Rock Creek
Louisville            5.9    8.6    9.2   10.1   12.0   18.5   22.0
:Kansas River
Belvue                6.7    8.2   10.7   12.2   15.1   17.2   20.1
:Cross Creek
Rossville             7.4    7.5    9.2   12.3   14.6   20.4   21.2
:Mill Creek
Paxico                3.3    3.9    5.2    6.8   12.7   23.1   25.6
:Kansas River
Topeka                7.3    7.7   12.1   13.5   16.6   23.0   23.3
:Soldier Creek
Delia                 6.6    7.5    9.1   13.5   18.9   23.0   24.8
Topeka 4nw            1.4    2.4    3.6    6.8   11.0   15.2   17.0
:Kansas River
Lecompton             4.8    5.2    8.2   11.4   12.6   16.7   17.5
Lawrence             14.2   14.4   15.4   16.9   17.2   19.2   19.9
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4s           8.3    9.9   11.9   15.0   18.5   22.4   23.4
:Republican River
Scandia               0.9    0.9    2.2    3.7    4.7    5.8    8.0
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown             2.7    2.7    5.2    9.2   13.1   17.0   17.7
:Republican River
Concordia             4.8    4.8    5.6    7.2    8.9   10.7   12.3
:Elk Creek
Clyde                 4.6    4.6    5.4    6.4    6.9    7.8    9.7
:Republican River
Clay Center           6.7    7.0    8.8   10.8   13.7   15.6   16.1
:Solomon River
Glasco                4.9    4.9    9.6   16.4   22.6   27.4   32.2
Minneapolis           2.8    2.8    5.3    9.6   19.7   24.4   30.5
:Salt Creek
Ada                   4.3    4.3    4.3    5.7    9.1   17.4   19.6
:Solomon River
Niles                 5.4    5.4    9.9   19.1   28.5   29.2   30.2
:Saline River
Tescott               5.6    6.2    7.4   12.5   19.4   29.1   31.8
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri    12.2   13.1   16.4   19.4   23.5   29.2   30.6
:Mud Creek
Abilene               1.5    1.5    2.2    3.5    5.2    9.4   12.9
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise            9.6   10.5   15.3   19.0   24.4   34.0   35.2
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading               3.1    4.1    5.2    7.0   16.0   19.4   21.9
Quenemo               2.7    3.8    7.0   13.6   19.4   23.4   25.4
:Salt Creek
Lyndon                1.1    1.6    2.4    5.9    8.9   13.1   13.5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa                5.9    6.2   11.7   16.2   28.0   31.2   31.6
:Pottawatomie Creek
Scipio                3.3    6.8   10.4   12.6   15.9   20.1   25.6
Lane                  6.5    7.1    8.8   10.4   16.2   21.0   23.8
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 8nw            1.8    7.0   10.7   14.7   19.5   21.4   22.3
:Cottonwood River
Emporia               2.3    2.8    3.9    5.4    7.6   19.9   23.3
:Neosho River
Americus              3.2    4.2    5.5    7.3   11.3   15.1   20.8
Emporia 3nw           9.3    9.8   10.4   11.3   13.3   14.9   17.9
Neosho Rapids         2.2    2.5    3.5    5.4    8.5   19.3   24.2
Burlington            5.9    6.7   11.0   13.5   16.7   18.2   19.3
Leroy                 2.5    3.4    9.9   13.1   17.2   20.3   23.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2018  - 05/18/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Big Blue River
Marysville           11.8   11.8   11.6   11.4   11.3   11.3   11.2
:Little Blue River
Hollenberg            1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Mill Creek
Washington            1.9    1.9    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.5
:Little Blue River
Barnes                2.7    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.5    2.4    2.3
:Big Blue River
Blue Rapids          15.8   15.7   15.6   15.3   15.1   14.9   14.8
:Black Vermillion River
Frankfort             3.8    3.8    3.8    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.4
:Fancy Creek
Randolph              6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    5.5    5.0    5.0
:Chapman Creek
Chapman               4.4    4.4    4.4    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2
:Lyon Creek
Junction City         5.4    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.3    5.2    5.2
:Smoky Hill River
Junction City         0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8
:Kansas River
Ft Riley              5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1
:Wildcat Creek
Manhattan Scenic      2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3
:Kansas River
Manhattan             5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
Wamego                3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1
:Vermillion Creek
Louisville            6.8    6.8    6.8    6.7    6.7    6.6    6.6
:Rock Creek
Louisville            4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8
:Kansas River
Belvue                4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7    4.7
:Cross Creek
Rossville             7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    6.8    6.8    6.8
:Mill Creek
Paxico                2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.1    1.8
:Kansas River
Topeka                4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
:Soldier Creek
Delia                 6.3    6.3    6.2    5.9    5.1    4.3    4.1
:Kansas River
Lecompton             1.6    1.6    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4
Lawrence             13.6   13.6   13.6   13.6   13.6   13.6   13.6
:Wakarusa River
Lawrence 4s           4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
:Buffalo Creek
Jamestown             2.5    2.4    2.2    1.8    1.6    1.2    1.1
:Republican River
Concordia             4.7    4.7    4.5    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1
:Elk Creek
Clyde                 4.6    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
:Republican River
Clay Center           6.6    6.6    6.5    6.1    6.0    5.8    5.7
:Solomon River
Glasco                4.8    4.8    4.6    4.5    4.3    4.3    4.3
Minneapolis           2.7    2.7    2.5    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.2
:Salt Creek
Ada                   4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1
:Solomon River
Niles                 4.8    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.4    4.1    4.1
:Saline River
Tescott               5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.3    5.1
:Smoky Hill River
Abilene Sand Spri     5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
:Mud Creek
Abilene               1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5    1.5
:Smoky Hill River
Enterprise            6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Reading               2.2    2.2    2.2    1.9    1.9    1.9    1.9
Quenemo               0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.6    0.5
:Salt Creek
Lyndon                0.6    0.6    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5    0.5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Ottawa                3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:Pottawatomie Creek
Scipio                3.1    3.1    3.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1
Lane                  5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6
:Turkey Creek
Seneca 8nw            0.8    0.8    0.8    0.8    0.7    0.6    0.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Outlook:

For the outlook period mid-February through mid-May, the probability
of flooding is generally normal to below normal across the Topeka
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA).

At this time...typical spring rainfall will drive any flooding which
occurs across the region as there is little significant snow cover
across the Central Plains. The Big Blue River at Blue Rapids is the
lone basin with a near 50 percent flood probability during the next
3 months. In addition, there are only three other locations showing
in excess of 30 percent flood probability: the Solomon River at
Niles...Black Vermillion at Frankfort...and Marias Des Cygnes at
Quenemo.

Recent Conditions:

Mean temperatures since January 1st ranged from the lower 20s along
the Nebraska border to the upper 20s across east-central Kansas.
These values were generally 1 to 5 degrees below normal.
Precipitation amounts since January 1st ranged between a half to one
inch.  These values were generally 40 to 80 percent of normal
precipitation.

Present Conditions:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates moderate drought
conditions roughly southwest of a Concordia...to Junction City...to
Emporia line. Abnormally dry conditions are common across the
remainder of the Topeka HSA. The latest daily USGS streamflow
conditions were normal across the majority of northcentral and
northeast Kansas. However, below normal streamflow was common across
east-central and southeast Kansas.

Future Conditions:

The 8 to 14 day outlook indicates a weather pattern favoring above
normal temperatures with a slightly increased probability of above
normal precipitation across the southeast third of the Topeka HSA.
The remainder of the HSA has equal chances of above, below, or
normal conditions.

The climate outlook for March shows an increased probability of
below normal temperatures with equal chances of above, below, or
normal precipitation.

The 3-month temperature outlook through mid-May shows a slightly
increased probability of above normal temperatures. The
precipitation outlook for the same period indicates equal chances of
above, below, or normal conditions.

The next Spring Flood Outlook will be issued March 1, 2018.

Visit our web site weather.gov/top for more weather and water
information.

$$

SAW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.