Extended Streamflow Guidance
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAUNTON MA
1226 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /7/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF MAINE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
ALSO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN RANGE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK
STATE...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS REMAINS NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS INTERIOR MAINE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FOR EXTREME
NORTHERN AREAS OF BOTH VERMONT AND NEW YORK STATE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE...THE THREAT
FOR ICE JAMS HAS GENERALLY PASSED FOR THIS SEASON.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH MARCH ACROSS
THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. THIS
ALLOWED FOR RENEWED RIVER ICE GROWTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THAT HAD SEEN THE ICE GO OUT
DURING THE LATE FEBRUARY RAIN AND THAW EVENT. WE EVEN HAD REPORTS OF
RARE FREEZE UP ICE JAM FLOODING ALONG THE SALMON RIVER IN FAR
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. USUALLY IN MARCH...ICE JAM FLOODING IS
CAUSED BY BREAKUP JAMS.

EVERY MAJOR CITY IN THE NERFC SERVICE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED MARCH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE 28TH. THE COLD HAS RANGED FROM
5.0 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN PORTLAND MAINE TO JUST 1.0 DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL IN BUFFALO NEW YORK. IN BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS...MARCH HAS
AVERAGED 4.1 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WILL END UP BEING COLDER THAN
DECEMBER...JANUARY OR FEBRUARY OF THIS WINTER. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST TIME THAT MARCH HAS BEEN COLDER THAN THOSE THREE WINTER MONTHS
SINCE RECORD KEEPING WAS ESTABLISHED BACK IN 1872.

AND WINTER IS NOT QUITE OVER YET. IN THE NEAR TERM...ANOTHER WINTER
STORM IS POISED TO DROP SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN IS BEGINNING ITS TRANSITION TO SPRING.
OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS...NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
ARE SHOWING SEVERAL CUTOFF LOWS EJECTING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. AND WHILE IT WILL REMAIN
COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS WE HEAD INTO APRIL...THERE ARE SIGNS
THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY RETROGRADE WEST ALLOWING SOME WARMTH
AND MORE RAIN THAN SNOW TO MOVE UP INTO NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
FOR 6-12 APRIL 2017 TEND TO AGREE WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO AS THEY
CALL FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. THIS PATTERN DEFINITELY
INCREASES THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN ON SNOW EVENTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST ONE-HALF OF APRIL.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

THE SNOWPACK IN MARCH HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO RETREAT AND IN FACT HAS
BECOME MORE WATER LADEN THAN AT ANY TIME THIS WINTER ACROSS AREAS OF
INTERIOR MAINE...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

...NEW YORK STATE...

RECENT WARMER WEATHER AND SOME RAINFALL HAS ERODED THE SNOWPACK
DURING THE LAST WEEK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. AS OF THIS
MORNING...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK RIVER THE SNOW WAS FAIRLY
INSIGNIFICANT NOW WITH JUST 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE
CATSKILL MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ONLY PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW DEPTHS
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN RANGE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE
REMAIN IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER. IN THE VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...6 TO
12 INCHES OF SNOW BLANKETS THE GROUND INCREASING TO 1-2+ FEET ABOVE
1500 FEET. SNOW DEPTHS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY OF EXTREME
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 INCHES WHILE IN THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE ARE STILL 1-2+ FEET OF SNOW
ABOVE 1500 FEET BUT LESS THAN 6 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW DEPTHS
FOR THE END OF MARCH ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL BUT ARE A TAD ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOHAWK RIVER IN NEW YORK STATE...THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT WATER LEFT IN THE SNOWPACK AVAILABLE FOR MELT RUNOFF IS
FOUND ABOVE 2000 FEET IN THE CATSKILLS WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES
ARE COMMON. NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER IS
HELD IN THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE VALLEYS IN THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN
CHAIN BUT THOSE VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 INCHES ABOVE
2000 FEET. ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN EXTREME NORTHERN NEW
YORK STATE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN A TRACE AND 3
INCHES NOW. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU...ALTHOUGH THE VALLEYS GENERALLY HAVE LESS THAN 3 INCHES OF
WATER HELD IN THE SNOWPACK...HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE QUITE A BIT
MORE. NORTH OSCEOLA REPORTED NEAR 10 INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK
AS OF THE MORNING OF 28 MARCH BUT PROBABLY LOST CLOSE TO AN INCH
OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE AS MUCH AS 33
PERCENT HIGHER THAN NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACK
MOUNTAINS AND TUG HILL PLATEAU FOR LATE MARCH BUT GENERALLY NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

AS OF THIS EVENING...THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WAS FOUND IN NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS AND EXTREME NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN THESE
AREAS...SNOW DEPTHS WERE MOSTLY UNDER 10 INCHES ALTHOUGH ABOVE 1500
FEET IN THE BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SNOW
DEPTHS WERE STILL OVER A FOOT. SNOW DEPTHS ARE FAIRLY NORMAL AS WE
MOVE INTO EARLY SPRING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND FAR NORTHWEST
CONNECTICUT...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES
EXCEPT ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS WHERE THEY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BORDER WITH VERMONT. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ARE TYPICAL FOR THE TAIL END OF MARCH.

...VERMONT...

WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE IN VERMONT...SNOW DEPTHS NOW
AVERAGE UNDER 10 INCHES. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE IMMEDIATE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF VERMONT...SNOW DEPTHS AVERAGE 1-2 FEET ABOVE 1500 FEET
WITH EVEN HIGHER TOTALS OF 2-3+ FEET IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND
HILLS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WALDEN...IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF
VERMONT...REPORTED 37 INCHES OF SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND AS OF THE
MORNING OF 29 MARCH. SNOW DEPTHS ARE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS VERMONT FOR EARLY SPRING.

ACROSS MOST VALLEYS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF
VERMONT...THE SNOWPACK CONTAINS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER AVAILABLE FOR
MELT RUNOFF. THESE VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10 INCHES
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VERMONT INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS...MUCH LIKE SNOW DEPTHS...ARE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MARCH.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SOUTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW DEPTHS ARE NOW
MOSTLY BELOW 10 INCHES EXCEPT ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE 10 TO 20 INCHES
OF SNOW ARE STILL THE NORM. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE
BORDER WITH QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA...SNOW DEPTHS AVERAGE BETWEEN 6
AND 12 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS BUT INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET
ABOVE 1500 FEET. AS OF THE MORNING OF 29 MARCH...MOOSE FALLS IN FAR
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF 38.6 INCHES. SNOW
DEPTHS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE BUT ACTUALLY TRANSITION TO NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GRANITE STATE FOR LATE MARCH.

RECENT SNOW SURVEY INFORMATION SHOWS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
HAVING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK WITH SOME
VALUES UP TO 4 OR 5 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET. IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...ABUNDANT SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS CONTINUE ABOVE 1500 FEET WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER
IS HELD IN THE SNOWPACK WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES NOT
UNCOMMON IN THE HEART OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND UP ALONG THE BORDER
WITH CANADA. MOOSE FALLS REPORTED A SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF 13.1
INCHES AS OF THIS MORNING AND FIRST CONNECTICUT LAKE...NOT TOO FAR
AWAY...HAD A WATER EQUIVALENT OF 10.2 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER BUT NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
RECENT SNOW SURVEYS FIXED THE WATER EQUIVALENT AT JUST 40 TO 60
PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE LAKE SUNAPEE AREA AS WELL AS ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

...MAINE...

WITHIN ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE COASTLINE IN MAINE...SNOW DEPTHS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR OR LESS THAN A FOOT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
MAINE...SNOW DEPTHS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE THE NORMAL WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS ABOVE 1500 FEET IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS.
SNOW DEPTHS FOR MAINE ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SPRING.

ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL PLAIN IN MAINE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 4 INCHES. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR
MAINE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE THE NORM WITH
10 TO 15 INCHES OF WATER STILL HELD IN THE SNOWPACK ABOVE 1500 FEET
IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE HIGHLANDS. THE WATER EQUIVALENTS
ACROSS THE CARRABASSET...SANDY AND PISCATAQUIS RIVER BASINS ARE IN
THE TOP 10 TO 25 PERCENT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WHICH IS QUITE SIGNIFICANT. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS IN MAINE ARE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

THE LONG TERM DROUGHT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE DUE TO MORE FREQUENT BOUTS OF RAIN
AND SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS.

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FROM 25 MARCH 2017 SHOWED
MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH NEAR NORMAL
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE STATES WITH UNUSUAL TO VERY MOIST CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THERE WERE MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS STILL INDICATED FROM LONG ISLAND NORTH INTO MUCH OF
CONNECTICUT. ALSO...ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT...SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WERE INDICATED BUT WE ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED WITH
THOSE AREAS AS THERE IS A VERY DEEP SNOWPACK AVAILABLE FOR RECHARGE
OF RESERVOIRS AND GROUNDWATER.

TAKING A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
(USGS)...THE ONLY ALARMINGLY LOW GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE FOUND ACROSS
LONG ISLAND...PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT AND CAPE COD IN SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS. RECORD LOW MARCH GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE OBSERVED IN
DEEP AQUIFER WELLS IN SANDWICH MASSACHUSETTS ON CAPE COD AND IN
DEEP AQUIFER WELLS ACROSS SUFFOLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL LONG
ISLAND. THE MONITORING WELLS ON LONG ISLAND HAVE 30-40+ YEARS OF
RECORD. SINCE SNOW IS GONE FROM THESE AREAS...WE WILL NEED ABOVE
NORMAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING TO TURN THESE LEVELS
TOWARDS THE UPSIDE. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...GROUNDWATER
LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE ARE ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. THE MONITORING WELL AT RANSOMVILLE NORTH OF NIAGARA
FALLS SET A NEW RECORD HIGH GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR MARCH WITH A 37
YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

LAKES AND WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE
HEADING INTO SPRING ACROSS THE NERFC SERVICE AREA. ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK STATE...INDIAN LAKE...GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE AND HINCKLEY
RESERVOIRS WERE GENERALLY NEAR OR A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH MORE
SNOW LEFT TO RECHARGE THEM. LAKE CHAMPLAIN WAS RUNNING ABOUT 0.75
FEET BELOW NORMAL BUT THE HOPE IS THAT THE NEXT RUSH OF SNOWMELT
WILL PUSH THEM CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE NEXT MONTH. IN CENTRAL NEW
YORK STATE...OWASCO LAKE WAS ALSO CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE
MARCH. THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE
RESERVOIRS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WAS AT 89.8 PERCENT
CAPACITY AS OF 27 MARCH 2017 WHICH WAS 3.1 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN IN
MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WERE 48 PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 17 PERCENT
ABOVE NORMAL WITH A LOT OF SNOW YET TO MELT INTO THE SYSTEM. FURTHER
SOUTH IN NEW ENGLAND...THE QUABBIN RESERVOIR...WHICH SUPPLIES MOST
OF THE DRINKING WATER TO THE GREATER BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...HAD
RISEN TO 81.1 PERCENT CAPACITY WHICH PUTS IT IN THE LOW END OF THE
NORMAL RANGE. SCITUATE RESERVOIR...WHICH SUPPLIES DRINKING WATER TO
MUCH OF NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING THE CITY OF PROVIDENCE...WAS
AT 285.07 FEET AS OF 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING WHICH IS ABOVE CAPACITY
AND ALMOST TO THE TOP OF THE FLASHBOARDS. SO...WATER SUPPLY IN
GENERAL DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A CRITICAL PROBLEM HEADING INTO SPRING
ACROSS THE NERFC SERVICE AREA.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS...IN GENERAL...ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SEVEN
STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. FLOWS ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WHERE RECENT RAIN ON TOP OF MELTING
SNOW HAS BOOSTED MANY RIVER AND CREEK FLOWS TO WITHIN THE HIGHEST 10
PERCENT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR 29 MARCH. IN FACT...THE
OTSQUAGO CREEK AT FORT PLAIN NEAR LITTLE FALLS NEW YORK SET A NEW
RECORD HIGH FLOW FOR 29 MARCH WITH A 41 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD. THERE
ARE SCATTERED AREAS AROUND THE REGION WITH FLOWS A BIT ON THE LOW
SIDE...BUT WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...WE ARE NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT THEM GOING THAT MUCH LOWER AT THIS TIME.

RIVER ICE REMAINS STEADFAST AND INTACT ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
MAINE. RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES COURTESY OF THE STATE OF MAINE SHOW THE
SAINT JOHN RIVER AT DICKEY MAINE 100 PERCENT COVERED WITH ICE WITH
APPRECIABLE SNOW ON TOP. THE ICE IS THOUGHT TO BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
FEET THICK. FURTHER SOUTH...ICE COVERS STRETCHES OF THE
PENOBSCOT...PISCATAQUIS...CARRABASSET AND SANDY RIVERS BUT IT IS
LIKELY WEAKENING NOW THAT WE HEAD TOWARDS APRIL. RIVER ICE HAS GONE
OUT OF RIVERS NEAR THE COAST LIKE THE PENOBSCOT AT BANGOR AND THE
KENNEBEC AT AUGUSTA AND WILL NOT REFORM THERE THIS SEASON.

ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...FAR NORTHERN VERMONT AND FAR
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...THERE ARE RIVERS WITH SOME ICE COVER BUT
EACH DAY THAT PASSES SEES THE ICE DEGRADE. RECENT IMAGES FROM THE
MISSISQUOI RIVER IN FAR NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE EAST BRANCH AU
SABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE SHOW GREY ICE A FEW INCHES
THICK THAT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT SOUND STRUCTURALLY. THE ICE IN
THESE AREAS IS NOWHERE NEAR THE THICKNESS OR STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF
THE ICE FOUND IN NORTHERN MAINE.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA...TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF BOTH NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT...ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ADIRONDACKS...RIVER
ICE IS PRETTY MUCH GONE AND WILL NOT REFORM THIS SEASON.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MAINE...NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. IN THESE
AREAS...RIVER FLOWS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AND LONG TERM
ANTECEDENT MOISTURE STATES ARE NOT FAR FROM NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL POOL LEVELS. THE
TWO SMOKING GUNS ARE THE WATER LADEN SNOWPACK WHICH CONTAINS NEAR OR
OVER 10 INCHES OF STORED WATER ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GOING FORWARD INTO APRIL. EVEN THOUGH THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING MORE SNOW THAN RAIN TO THESE
AREAS...THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH A
CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF EVENT WITH JUST ABOUT ANY DECENT RAINSTORM OVER
THE NEXT MONTH. IN MAINE...SOME AREAS HAVE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN
THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD SO IT IS BECOMING
DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE A SCENARIO OTHER THAN A NO RAIN SCENARIO THAT
WILL SPARE SOME PARTS OF THE STATE FROM FLOODING THIS SPRING.
THUS...AN ABOVE NORMAL THREAT FOR SPRING FLOODING IS DEEMED TO EXIST
IN THESE AREAS.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN REGION IN NEW YORK STATE. IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...RIVER FLOWS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...GROUNDWATER AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE NEAR NORMAL AND THE SNOWPACK CONTAINS NEAR TO
SOMEWHAT MORE WATER THAN NORMAL. WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...THE SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO MELT IN EARNEST...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING
DURING ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENTS. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS FOR MAINE AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SINCE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
ADIRONDACKS.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA...TO INCLUDE SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHERN VERMONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF
NEW YORK STATE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS...THE
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THESE AREAS...THE
SNOW HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR IS NOT AS HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT AS
IT IS IN MORE NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...FOR PLACES LIKE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE WHERE THE SNOW IS ENTIRELY GONE...SOIL
MOISTURE STATES AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE HIGH SO THAT WITH AN
ACTIVE AND RAINY WEATHER PATTERN...THERE IS STILL AT LEAST A NORMAL
RISK FOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS UNTIL VEGETATION BLOOMS AND
CONDITIONS DRY OUT. AND IN AREAS FURTHER EAST WHERE THE RIVER FLOWS
ARE LOWER LIKE SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...LINGERING SNOW COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL RAIN EVENTS OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ALSO LEAVES THEM AT A NEAR NORMAL THREAT FOR
SPRING FLOODING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
INTERIOR MAINE...FROM ROUGHLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE
HIGHLANDS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE. IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS STILL
EXTENSIVE RIVER ICE IN SOME CASES 1 TO 2 FEET THICK. THE ICE WILL BE
WEAKENING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD IN ANOTHER 1
TO 2 WEEKS ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AND 2 TO 3 WEEKS UP
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR SNOWMELT EVENTS
DURING THIS TIME WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BUCKLE AND MOVE THE ICE
CAUSING ICE JAM FLOODING. THE THREAT REMAINS HIGHEST ACROSS RIVERS
LIKE THE SAINT JOHN...ALLAGASH...AROOSTOOK AND UPPER PENOBSCOT AND
MARGINAL FURTHER SOUTH FOR RIVERS LIKE THE PISCATAQUIS AND SANDY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS STILL EXISTS LOCALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...FAR NORTHERN VERMONT AND FAR
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. IN THESE AREAS...MOST OF THE ICE IN AREA
RIVERS IS REFORMED MARCH ICE WHICH IS NOT AS STRUCTURALLY SOUND AS
THE ICE FURTHER NORTHEAST IN MAINE. IT IS LIKELY THAT DURING A RAPID
FLOW INCREASE...THIS ICE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO FLUSH DOWNSTREAM
THAN JAM SINCE IT IS GENERALLY UNDER 6 INCHES THICK AND WEAK. WE DO
NOT WANT TO DISMISS THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED ICE JAMS IN THESE
AREAS BUT DO NOT THINK ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. IN
FACT...THE ICE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS
PASSED FOR COASTAL MAINE...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND VERMONT...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN RANGE. IN THESE AREAS...THERE IS VERY
LITTLE IF ANY RIVER ICE LEFT AND THE SUN ANGLE IS TOO HIGH
REGARDLESS OF THE TEMPERATURES FOR ANY APPRECIABLE ICE TO REFORM
THIS SEASON.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NERFC ON THURSDAY 13 APRIL 2017.

END/HORWOOD
$$



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