Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
830 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OHIO RIVER BASIN AND LAKE
ERIE DRAINAGE.

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITH
WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABLITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOODSTAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW
THE RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A 90-DAY WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED MONTHLY.

FACTORS CONSIDERED IN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE (1) ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (2) PAST PRECIPITATION (3) RECENT STREAMFLOWS AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS (4) SOIL MOISTURE (5) WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
PACK (6) ICE CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS AND (7) FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

METEOROLOGICALLY...THE PREVAILING STORM TRACK HAS TAKEN ON AN EL
NINO SIGNATURE ACROSS THE U.S....PREDICTED SINCE THE SUMMER OF
2014...WITH FREQUENT STORM SYSTEMS HITTING THE WEST COAST...THEN
MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BEFORE CURVING UP THE EAST COAST OR OUT
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LACK OF PHASING OF THE
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVELY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE DURING
LATE AUTUMN/EARLY WINTER. WITH THE EL NINO PATTERN IN PLACE...THE
FAST FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. HAS PREVENTED THE POLAR VORTEX FROM
ESTABLISHING ITSELF SEMI-PERMANENTLY OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES
BAY...THUS BLOCKING THE FREQUENT INTRUSION OF ARTIC AIR MASSES INTO
CONTINENTAL U.S. AS A RESULT....A DEEP WINTER SNOWPACK HAS REMAINED
NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER IN CANADA.

SOILS ARE NORMALLY MOIST IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS ARE NEAR NORMAL IN THE OHIO RIVER
BASIN/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE WITH ISOLATED BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOWS IN
A FEW WATERSHEDS.

A MINOR SNOWPACK (1-3 INCHES OF LOW WATER EQUIVALENT SNOW) EXISTS
ACROSS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT IN NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...AND SOUTHWEST NEW YORK STATE.

SOME ICE ACCUMULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN RIVERS OF THE OHIO
RIVER BASIN. ICE JAM FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG A REACH OF THE
WABASH RIVER FROM COVINGTON IN TO MONTEZUMA IN.

...EARLY TO MID WINTER FLOOD OUTLOOK/SUMMARY...

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AN EL NINO PATTERN
DURING EARLY TO MID WINTER. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND LAKE ERIE
DRAINAGE...THE STORM TRACK WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...THEN CURVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR OUT INTO THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN. WITHOUT PHASING OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAMS...SIGNIFICANT STORM EVENTS WILL NOT DEVELOP OR AFFECT
THE OHIO VALLEY.

HYDROLOGICALLY...THE RESULTING STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE OHIO RIVER
BASIN/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE.

$$
WHEELER



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