Extended Streamflow Prediction
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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
February 7, 2017

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 JAN PRECIP     OCT-JAN PREC    JFEB 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES             280            145               155
ANIMAS                       240            125               160
LOWER SAN JUAN               235            140                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         DEC FLOW       OCT-DEC FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               145%             85%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JAN 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      100
VALLECITO                   133
LEMON                        99

TOTAL                       101

San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    255   119    340    280    235    200    215
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    455   120    620    510    405    355    380
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     67   124     87     78     59     54     54
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     77   118    101     90     67     61     65
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    245   117    350    285    215    185    210
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    235   121    300    260    210    180    194
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    880   120   1230   1000    755    640    735
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     65   118     86     74     57     48     55
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    515   124    640    590    480    400    415
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1360   124   1850   1520   1190    990   1100
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     33   143     42     37     29     25     23
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1370   125   1930   1580   1210   1030   1100
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     43   139     60     51     38     30     31

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G. Smith



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