Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS65 KSTR 061505
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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
May 6, 2016

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 APR PRECIP     OCT-APR PREC    MAY 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES             110             95                75
ANIMAS                        85             95                75
LOWER SAN JUAN               165            135                 -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         APR FLOW       OCT-APR FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE               75%             90%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF MAY 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      110
VALLECITO                   140
LEMON                       115

TOTAL                       110

San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    188    87    205    196    180    166    215
  Pagosa Springs           May-Jul    152    84    170    160    144    130    180
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    295    78    330    310    280    260    380
  Carracas, nr             May-Jul    240    80    275    255    225    205    300
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     45    83     56     50     41     38     54
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  May-Jul     38    84     49     43     34     31     45
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     51    78     60     54     46     41     65
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  May-Jul     43    80     52     46     38     33     54
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    160    76    190    166    151    138    210
  Arboles, nr              May-Jul    120    78    150    126    111     98    153
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    155    80    190    166    142    122    194
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  May-Jul    130    76    165    141    117     97    171
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    520    71    620    545    490    440    735
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   May-Jul    400    71    500    425    370    320    565
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     40    73     51     45     35     32     55
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   May-Jul     35    71     46     40     30     27     49
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    315    76    395    340    290    260    415
  Durango                  May-Jul    270    74    350    295    245    215    365
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul    765    70    935    810    715    645   1100
  Farmington               May-Jul    610    69    780    655    560    490    880
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul   16.9    73     21     19   15.4   13.9     23
  Hesperus                 May-Jul   14.0    77   18.0   16.0   12.5   11.0   18.2
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    765    70    955    815    710    640   1100
  Bluff, nr                May-Jul    610    71    800    660    555    485    855
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     27    87     32     29     24     22     31
  Mancos, nr               May-Jul     21    88     26     23   18.0   16.0     24

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G.Smith



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