Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 160717
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
317 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

...Periods of rain set for Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure slides east today with winds shifting
around out of the SE/ESE, but remaining rather light, with
tendencies for the winds to go more onshore/lake breezes. Winds do
increase through tonight and especially Thursday, out ahead of
deepening sfc low pressure that crosses eastern Lake Superior
Friday. Rain chances are best Thursday, with periods of rain and
scattered thunderstorms expected throughout the day. Thunderstorms
will likely be more common Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, as
a warm front first pushes through, followed by the cold front
Thursday night. Winds will swing more out of the south and increase
tonight through Thursday night, then more westerly Friday after the
cold front. Speeds/gustiness hampered to some degree by little
mixing/clouds and rain. Better gusts expected Friday behind the cold
front.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-162015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
317 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....75-80.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (410).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely after 0800 until 1400. rain showers
                    after 1400. chance of thunderstorms after 1700.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........69-74 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (260).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.41-0.77 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-162015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
317 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (320).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 0800 until 1400. rain showers
                    after 1400. chance of thunderstorms after 1700.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........70-75 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (260).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.29-0.68 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-162015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
317 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0900.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 1 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (540).
Mixing Height.......5300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 0200 until 0500, then chance of
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....74-79...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........72-77 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent wetter...except 18 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (460).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.56-0.85 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-162015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
317 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (520).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers after 0200 until 0500, then chance of
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (80).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........76-81 percent.
   24 HR Trend......30 percent wetter...except 21 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (650).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.58-0.80 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-162015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
317 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0800.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (490).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (70).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely after 0800 until 1400. rain showers
                    after 1400. chance of thunderstorms after 1700.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........74-79 percent.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (300).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.52-0.71 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD


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