Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 240917
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
517 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY
TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL THEN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THIS MORNING. ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY BE
SCATTERED. HOWEVER...THOSE LATE-DAY STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.

SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SEEN TODAY...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH. BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-242200-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
517 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 26 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.30 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL 0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.12 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-242200-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
517 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 23 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.84 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
                    0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.11 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT 71-76 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 60-65 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1920).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-242200-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
517 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....85-90...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT...EXCEPT 87-92 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......37 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 32 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1480).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.91 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....66-71.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.16 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT 67-72 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 9 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1230).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-242200-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
517 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY
                    UNTIL 1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT AROUND 81 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1350).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.84 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....63-68...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (100).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH BECOMING WEST AROUND 12
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....79-84...EXCEPT 72-77 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 67-72 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-242200-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
517 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    1200. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......35 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.80 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    0200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS UNTIL
                    0500.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.11 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1890).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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