Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 170736
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
336 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Gusty and warm conditions...

.DISCUSSION...A tight pressure gradient is over nrn Michigan due to
strong low pressure in nrn Ontario. This low pressure departs
through the day, with gusty winds gradually weaken through later in
the afternoon and evening. Another stronger low pressure then
settles into central Canada late tonight, also working through nrn
Ontario later Wednesday and Wednesday night. The gradient will be
even tighter, with much stronger gusts anticipated. The air mass
will remain on the dry side, and no precipitation to occur. No
issues with humidity or significant wind shifts.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-172015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
336 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 6 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (520).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (940).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 27
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-172015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
336 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (680).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (930).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-172015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
336 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (420).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....46-51...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (970).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 30
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-172015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
336 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 3 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (450).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent...except 56-61 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (970).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 27
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-172015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
336 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (630).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (970).
Mixing Height.......3500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph increasing to around 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND
70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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