Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 162002
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...SEASONAL FOR THE WORK WEEK WITH RAIN THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...WILL GENERATE A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS NORTH OF THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WILL GENERATE SOME SUN AND NEARLY SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO END THE WORK WEEK.

HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERATE WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THIS WEEKEND.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-170845-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (180).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-170845-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-170845-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (30).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........53-58 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (360).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-170845-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (830).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-170845-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
402 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    AFTER 0100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (280).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST
                    UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FROST IN THE EVENING...THEN AREAS
OF FROST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SWR





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