Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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411
FNUS51 KBUF 090956
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
456 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE A STALLED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
THE REGION SHROUDED UNDER CLOUDS TODAY...ONLY LIGHT NUISANCE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY
TONIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL DEEPEN IN ITS WAKE WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE
SNOWS DEVELOPING EAST OF BOTH LAKES. THESE LAKE SNOWS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND...AT WHICH TIME OUR FIRST TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS OF
THE SEASON WILL INVADE THE AREA. FRIGID TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO WITH DANGEROUSLY
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES.

NYZ001-002-010-011-092115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
456 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          WED
CLOUD COVER                    CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     40           50           90
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS         SNOW
MIN/MAX TEMP                       39           27           30
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW  8                      W 12
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW 12        SW 10         W 14
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.04         0.09         0.14
PRECIP DURATION                     2            2           11
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               68           87           73
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5590         1640         4090
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SW 16        SW 17         W 24
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               89440        27880        98160
DISPERSION INDEX                   89           28           98
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-092115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
456 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          WED
CLOUD COVER                    CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     50           50           90
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS         SNOW
MIN/MAX TEMP                       37           23           28
AM WIND (MPH)                   SW  7                      W 14
PM WIND (MPH)                    W  9         W 10         W 15
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.04         0.05         0.17
PRECIP DURATION                     2            2           12
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               66           90           73
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5890         1360         4690
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              W 12         W 16         W 25
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               70680        21760       117250
DISPERSION INDEX                   71           22          117
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-092115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
456 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          WED
CLOUD COVER                    CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     40           30           70
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS SNOW SHOWERS         SNOW
MIN/MAX TEMP                       41           26           33
AM WIND (MPH)                    S  8                      W 10
PM WIND (MPH)                    W  6        SW  7        NW 14
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.04         0.02         0.07
PRECIP DURATION                     2            2            7
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               60           86           69
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5880          180         4230
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              W  8        SW 12         W 28
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               47040         2160       118440
DISPERSION INDEX                   47            2          118
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-092115-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
456 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          WED
CLOUD COVER                    CLOUDY       CLOUDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     60           50           80
PRECIP TYPE                      SNOW SNOW SHOWERS         SNOW
MIN/MAX TEMP                       35           21           32
AM WIND (MPH)                   SE  7                     SW  5
PM WIND (MPH)                 LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR        NW  9
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.08         0.07         0.11
PRECIP DURATION                     5            2            8
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               69           95           71
HAINES INDEX                        3            3            3
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              4830          170         4490
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              S  4         W  5        SW  9
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               19320          850        40410
DISPERSION INDEX                   19            1           40
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LOWS AROUND 11.
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. HIGHS
AROUND 14.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. MUCH COLDER. LOWS NEAR ZERO. HIGHS AROUND 1.
.SUNDAY...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS AROUND 7 BELOW. HIGHS
AROUND 12.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. NOT AS COLD. LOWS
AROUND 7. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.

WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND THURSDAY...WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND FRIDAY...SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
WIND SATURDAY...NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION ABOVE NORMAL.

$$



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