Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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ECCDA Discussions
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
931 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

ECC029-171145-
Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Vandenberg ECC Dispatch
931 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

...Discussion from Los Angeles/Oxnard...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST DUE TO GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR MUCH
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

Strong upper level winds behind the passage of an upper level
disturbance combined with strengthening north-south pressure
gradients caused a significant increase in winds across the Santa
Barbara county mountains and south coast this morning, causing major
impacts on the Thomas Fire. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph have been
common this morning across these areas, with isolated gusts up to
65 mph being observed in the Montecito Hills. While humidities have
modified somewhat this morning, the strong north to northeast winds
through this evening will continue to maintain dangerous Red Flag
conditions for the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast.
As a result of these strong winds, there will be very rapid fire
spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior observed at
the Thomas Fire and any new fire ignitions. In addition, there will
be gusty north winds across the Ventura county mountains today,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors which will
impact the Ventura county portion of the Thomas Fire.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, the flow is
expected to shift to the northeast this evening, with increasing
Santa Ana winds overnight into Sunday when gusts between 35 and
55 mph will  be likely. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late
tonight through Sunday evening for much of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Another period of Santa Ana winds will be possible  from
Thursday into next weekend.


...Discussion from Monterey...

...Gusty northerly winds will combine with very low humidity  values
Friday evening through Sunday morning...

...Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 pm Friday evening through
10 am Sunday morning for gusty winds and low humidity values for
fire weather zones 507, 511, 512, 517, and 518...

...Gusty northerly winds will combine with very low humidity  values
Friday evening through Sunday morning...

...Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 pm Friday evening through
10 am Sunday morning for gusty winds and low humidity values for
fire weather zones 507, 511, 512, 517, and 518...

.DISCUSSION...An upper level high pressure area over California
will move west out over the eastern Pacific late this week allowing
a mainly dry cold front and upper level trough to move southeast
across the districts Friday night into early Saturday morning. A red
flag warning is in effect Friday evening through Sunday  morning due
to gusty northerly winds combining with very low  humidity values
over the hills and mountains in the wake of this  front. Dry weather
then continues this weekend with generally poor recoveries in the
mountains. Confidence remains low for red flag conditions to be met
tonight, but become moderate to high for Saturday and Saturday
night. There is now a slight chance of precipitation in the forecast
for Tuesday evening into Wednesday. This is an outside chance and
conditions remain dry otherwise.

Note : All winds are 20-foot Winds Unless otherwise specified.
Thunderstorms imply strong, gusty and erratic winds.



$$

ECC028-171145-
Santa Barbara County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Santa Barbara ECC Dispatch
931 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST DUE TO GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

Strong upper level winds behind the passage of an upper level
disturbance combined with strengthening north-south pressure
gradients caused a significant increase in winds across the Santa
Barbara county mountains and south coast this morning, causing major
impacts on the Thomas Fire. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph have been
common this morning across these areas, with isolated gusts up to
65 mph being observed in the Montecito Hills. While humidities have
modified somewhat this morning, the strong north to northeast winds
through this evening will continue to maintain dangerous Red Flag
conditions for the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast.
As a result of these strong winds, there will be very rapid fire
spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior observed at
the Thomas Fire and any new fire ignitions. In addition, there will
be gusty north winds across the Ventura county mountains today,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors which will
impact the Ventura county portion of the Thomas Fire.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, the flow is
expected to shift to the northeast this evening, with increasing
Santa Ana winds overnight into Sunday when gusts between 35 and
55 mph will  be likely. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late
tonight through Sunday evening for much of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Another period of Santa Ana winds will be possible  from
Thursday into next weekend.


$$

ECC031-171145-
Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Lancaster ECC Dispatch
931 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR MUCH
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

Strong upper level winds behind the passage of an upper level
disturbance combined with strengthening north-south pressure
gradients caused a significant increase in winds across the Santa
Barbara county mountains and south coast this morning, causing major
impacts on the Thomas Fire. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph have been
common this morning across these areas, with isolated gusts up to
65 mph being observed in the Montecito Hills. While humidities have
modified somewhat this morning, the strong north to northeast winds
through this evening will continue to maintain dangerous Red Flag
conditions for the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast.
As a result of these strong winds, there will be very rapid fire
spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior observed at
the Thomas Fire and any new fire ignitions. In addition, there will
be gusty north winds across the Ventura county mountains today,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors which will
impact the Ventura county portion of the Thomas Fire.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, the flow is
expected to shift to the northeast this evening, with increasing
Santa Ana winds overnight into Sunday when gusts between 35 and
55 mph will  be likely. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late
tonight through Sunday evening for much of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Another period of Santa Ana winds will be possible  from
Thursday into next weekend.


$$

ECC024-171145-
San Luis Obispo County-
Discussion for San Luis Obispo ECC Dispatch
931 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

Strong upper level winds behind the passage of an upper level
disturbance combined with strengthening north-south pressure
gradients caused a significant increase in winds across the Santa
Barbara county mountains and south coast this morning, causing major
impacts on the Thomas Fire. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph have been
common this morning across these areas, with isolated gusts up to
65 mph being observed in the Montecito Hills. While humidities have
modified somewhat this morning, the strong north to northeast winds
through this evening will continue to maintain dangerous Red Flag
conditions for the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast.
As a result of these strong winds, there will be very rapid fire
spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior observed at
the Thomas Fire and any new fire ignitions. In addition, there will
be gusty north winds across the Ventura county mountains today,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors which will
impact the Ventura county portion of the Thomas Fire.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, the flow is
expected to shift to the northeast this evening, with increasing
Santa Ana winds overnight into Sunday when gusts between 35 and
55 mph will  be likely. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late
tonight through Sunday evening for much of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Another period of Santa Ana winds will be possible  from
Thursday into next weekend.


$$

ECC032-171145-
Ventura County excluding Los Padres National Forest-
Discussion for Ventura ECC Dispatch
931 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR MUCH
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

Strong upper level winds behind the passage of an upper level
disturbance combined with strengthening north-south pressure
gradients caused a significant increase in winds across the Santa
Barbara county mountains and south coast this morning, causing major
impacts on the Thomas Fire. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph have been
common this morning across these areas, with isolated gusts up to
65 mph being observed in the Montecito Hills. While humidities have
modified somewhat this morning, the strong north to northeast winds
through this evening will continue to maintain dangerous Red Flag
conditions for the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast.
As a result of these strong winds, there will be very rapid fire
spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior observed at
the Thomas Fire and any new fire ignitions. In addition, there will
be gusty north winds across the Ventura county mountains today,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors which will
impact the Ventura county portion of the Thomas Fire.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, the flow is
expected to shift to the northeast this evening, with increasing
Santa Ana winds overnight into Sunday when gusts between 35 and
55 mph will  be likely. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late
tonight through Sunday evening for much of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Another period of Santa Ana winds will be possible  from
Thursday into next weekend.


$$

ECC030-171145-
Los Angeles County excluding Angeles National Forest-
Discussion for Los Angeles ECC Dispatch
931 AM PST Sat Dec 16 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR MUCH
OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES DUE TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SANTA ANA WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

Strong upper level winds behind the passage of an upper level
disturbance combined with strengthening north-south pressure
gradients caused a significant increase in winds across the Santa
Barbara county mountains and south coast this morning, causing major
impacts on the Thomas Fire. Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph have been
common this morning across these areas, with isolated gusts up to
65 mph being observed in the Montecito Hills. While humidities have
modified somewhat this morning, the strong north to northeast winds
through this evening will continue to maintain dangerous Red Flag
conditions for the Santa Barbara county mountains and south coast.
As a result of these strong winds, there will be very rapid fire
spread, long range spotting, and extreme fire behavior observed at
the Thomas Fire and any new fire ignitions. In addition, there will
be gusty north winds across the Ventura county mountains today,
especially near the Highway 33 and Interstate 5 corridors which will
impact the Ventura county portion of the Thomas Fire.

For the remainder of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, the flow is
expected to shift to the northeast this evening, with increasing
Santa Ana winds overnight into Sunday when gusts between 35 and
55 mph will  be likely. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for late
tonight through Sunday evening for much of Los Angeles and Ventura
Counties. Another period of Santa Ana winds will be possible  from
Thursday into next weekend.


$$


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