Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 301349
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Piney Grove Preserve - Unit 15...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
949 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on March 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure becomes centered off the northeast coast through
this evening. Low pressure and associated frontal boundaries
track across the region on Friday, bringing widespread rain and a
chance of afternoon thunderstorms. High pressure builds over the
area for the weekend.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (80-90 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East around 5 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......800-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............80  82  88  89  89  83  65
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................53  55  56  58  58  58  58
RH..................64  59  55  51  51  51  51
20 FT wind dir......E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd......3   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......0.8 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6
Transp wind dir.....E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.....12  10  10  9   9   10  12
LVORI...............3   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................13  18  15  15  15  16  20
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate kt-ft/1000....8   14  12  12  11  12  16

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers late.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph in the
                    evening...becoming light...then becoming
                    southeast 5 to 6 mph late.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............73  72  76  81  86  89  90  91  92  95  97  100
Weather cov.........                                    CHC CHC CHC
Weather type........                                    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Temp................56  55  55  54  54  54  54  54  53  53  53  52
RH..................55  59  59  64  64  66  69  71  77  80  86  93
20 FT wind dir......E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd......4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   4   4   5
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft).......1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.....12  13  13  12  12  10  10  10  10  9   7   7
LVORI...............2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   6
ADI.................20  8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   6   5   6
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   10  10  10  10  20  20  20  30  30  30
Haines index........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
VRate kt-ft/1000....16  13  12  10  8   6   5   5   4   3   2   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers. A slight
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the
                    morning...then a chance of thunderstorms early
                    in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL...increasing to 2400 ft AGL
                    late.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph...increasing to 15 to 22 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............100    100    100    100    100    88
Weather cov.........DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Temp................52     54     59     65     68     70
RH..................89     80     78     73     73     68
20 ft wind..........SE 5   SE 6   S 6    S 6    S 7    S 8
20 ft wind gust.....10     15     15     15     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)........300    300    500    800    1100   2000
Transport wind......S 8    S 14   S 21   S 20   S 15   S 20
LVORI...............5      4      3      3      3      3
ADI.................7      15     22     22     21     38
Chc of pcpn (%).....90     90     90     90     70     70
Haines index........3      4      3      2      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      3      9      14     15     34

$$
Forecaster...RUSNAK
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705543.0/AKQ
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org



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