Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FNUS71 KAKQ 311158
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR PINEY GROVE UNIT 15...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
758 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 87.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2800-4500 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............36  36  36  41  41  41
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................82  83  85  85  86  86
RH..................53  49  46  46  45  45
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......2.8 3.6 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   6   6   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....        10  10
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....8   7   7   7   6   7
VRATE KT-FT/1000....19  23  26  25  24  27
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................24  26  27  25  25  27
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   4   4
WAVE HEIGHT (FT)....0   0   0   0   0   0
DOMINANT PERIOD (S).0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-500 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 2 TO 5
                    MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............46  46  46  54  54  54  63  63  63  71  71  71
WEATHER COV.........                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE........                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................84  82  78  76  74  73  72  71  71  70  69  69
RH..................49  53  62  66  71  76  79  81  81  84  90  90
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.2 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   SE  E
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   12  14  15  14  13  10  7   5   3   2   2
VRATE KT-FT/1000....25  19  6   5   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   1
LVORI...............1   2   2   3   3   4   4   5   5   5   7   7
ADI.................30  27  14  11  6   6   5   3   2   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
WAVE HEIGHT (FT)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
DOMINANT PERIOD (S).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH LATE IN
                    THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE
                    IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2500-2600 FT
                    AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 2 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 12 TO 13 MPH
                    LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............78  78  78  78  78  78  76  76  76  80  80  80
WEATHER COV.........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................68  69  70  73  75  78  79  81  81  82  82  82
RH..................93  93  90  81  76  69  67  60  60  58  61  61
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20  20  20  20  20  20  50  50  50  50  50  50
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  NE  N   N   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT WIND SPD......2   2   2   3   3   6   7   8   9   8   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.....            5   5   10  10  10  15  10  10  10
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.....2   2   3   6   8   9   10  10  10  12  12  13
VRATE KT-FT/1000....1   1   1   2   5   8   14  18  24  25  26  27
LVORI...............8   7   7   5   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.................1   1   2   2   8   12  17  20  23  24  26  27
HAINES INDEX........3   4   4   4   3   3   4   4   5   5   4   4
WAVE HEIGHT (FT)....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
DOMINANT PERIOD (S).M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M



FORECASTER...GINGRICH
REQUESTED BY...SAM LINDBLOM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140731.PINEY.01/AKQ





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