Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 251244
FWSAKQ

SPOT FORECAST FOR CHUB SANDHILL UNITS 6 7...DCR DNH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
844 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0835 EDT ON MARCH 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE DAY WILL START OUT
CLOUDY BUT A FEW SUNNY BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EAST AND MAY TURN MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
                    IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........44 AT IGNITION...MAX 58-61.
RH..................70-75 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 60-64 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....WINDS EAST AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1700-2100 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............91  90  90  90  88  88  88  86  86  86
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........
TSTM COV............
TEMP................42  44  46  49  51  54  56  58  60  60
RH..................79  79  76  74  74  69  69  67  64  67
20 FT WIND DIR......NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.....E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.....12  10  9   8   8   8   8   10  13  15
LVORI...............4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3
ADI.................12  11  10  9   9   11  14  19  24  29
CHC OF PCPN (%).....30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10  10  10
HAINES INDEX........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....2   2   2   2   5   8   12  16  22  26

.TONIGHT...

RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT LATE IN THE EVENING...50 PERCENT
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 14 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
RH..................69  75  78  80  80  83  86  90  90  93  96  100
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....14  12  10  9   9   9   12  13  14  12  9   8
LVORI...............3   3   3   4   4   5   4   5   5   6   6   6
ADI.................6   5   5   4   4   4   7   9   9   8   6   5
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20  50  50  50  50
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE KT-FT/1000....18  10  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 75-78.
RH..................MIN 59-64 PERCENT.
WIND (20FT/2MIN)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-3000 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 32
                    TO 33 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
                    PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............91  91  91  84  84  84  73  73  73  67  67  67
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP................57  59  61  62  64  66  68  70  71  73  75  73
RH..................100 96  90  90  84  81  76  73  71  66  62  66
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......7   7   7   8   10  10  12  13  14  13  13  12
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  15  15  15  15  20  20  25  25  25  20  20
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....9   12  15  17  18  21  25  29  32  33  33  32
LVORI...............6   5   5   5   4   3   3   3   1   1   3   3
ADI.................10  13  16  18  27  37  50  65  78  79  78  75
CHC OF PCPN (%).....40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
VRATE KT-FT/1000....2   3   3   11  20  31  46  65  85  86  84  79



FORECASTER...DEROSA
REQUESTED BY...REBECCA WILSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150325.CHUBS.01/AKQ


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